Analysis of pig price market in 2016: It is predicted that pig price will rise the most in mid-and late December

How about pig prices at the end of 2016? The price of pigs in the north rose slightly as a whole, among which the price rise of pigs in the three northeastern provinces stopped and adjusted slightly in some parts. The price of pigs in Hebei also stepped on the brakes. In addition, two weeks before the Spring Festival, the northern region will begin to enter the small peak demand for killing pigs, but its demand and duration are slightly inferior to those for making bacon. It is expected that the price of pigs in the north will rise slightly in the short term.

At present, many places in the south have begun to make bacon, and the consumer end will also be improved. For example, the production of bacon in the south is fully opened, which is to start the rhythm of the power of the wild. It is expected that the price of pigs in the south will rise steadily and slightly. The current pig price has just risen to the high point area of 8.5-9 yuan/catty, which is expected to last for more than one month.

We suggest that the majority of pig farmers keep a normal heart, timely exit, bag for safety, 8.5-9 yuan/catty price difference is only a few cents, and every rise of a little resistance is very large, it is very likely that 8.6 yuan/catty death and so on for more than half a month is difficult to rise to 8.8 yuan/catty, such waiting brings very limited value-added income, but the market risk is very huge.

Northeast pig prices in the weekend after falling stable, the north of the main sales area Beijing and Tianjin raised, farmers reluctant to sell mood does not reduce support pig prices. In Central China, East China and other regions, the demand for pork increased, and the price of bacon was generally high in the scale field. It was difficult to suppress the price of slaughtering enterprises, and it was easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. According to the reaction of some farmers, the deadline for pig farm dismantling in some areas of Guangdong is approaching, and slaughtering enterprises take advantage of the opportunity to lower prices, resulting in an increase in local output and a weak fine-tuning of pig prices.

Quotation 2: Pig prices in Southwest China rose to more than 18 yuan

Pig prices continued to rise as a whole, but the increase was very small. The rising trend of the three northeastern provinces was suspended, and some parts began to adjust slightly. The southwest region was affected by the sporadic opening of bacon production and sausage filling, and the market demand was boosted to some extent. Except Chongqing, the pig prices in Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan rose to more than 18 yuan/kg. Recently, large-scale pig farms are very expensive, driving farmers to increase their confidence in the future market, and the mood of holding down the fence is heating up. It is more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to acquire them. However, we have to remind the majority of farmers that with the further recovery of market demand in the later period, although pig prices still have some room to rise, market variables still exist, especially in winter, when epidemic diseases occur, pigs will be concentrated. At that time, slaughtering enterprises will not be soft on price reduction.

Question 3: Why is South China's pig price the lowest in the country?

Southwest and South China have always been the regions with the highest per capita pork consumption in China. Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangdong and Hunan are the six provinces (cities) with the largest pork consumption in China, and were once the main pig producing areas in China. Why is South China the lowest in pig prices?

Netizen "empty gloves white wolf" think, drag down the main factors of pig prices in South China have three: first, South China early by Vietnam low-cost pig impact market price was laid, second, South China early by the spread of foot and mouth disease and influenza impact increased, pig dealers took the opportunity to suppress, third, South China at present unprecedented large-scale large-scale forced demolition, city and county pig farms again concentrated out.

The 2014 Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Pollution from Livestock and Poultry Scale Breeding, the 2015 Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Adjustment and Optimization of Pig Breeding Layout in Southern Water Network Areas, and the Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan all require the promotion of an environmentally friendly pig breeding model. Guangdong Province, as one of the 11 provinces and cities in the southern water network area, is classified as a restricted development area. On April 20 this year, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the first development plan for pig breeding in the next five years since the founding of New China. Based on the environmental carrying capacity, the planning clearly points out that the pig breeding layout should be transferred from South China and East China to Northeast and Northwest China.

It is expected that after the demolition tide, the proportion of live pig stocks and pork production in South China will decrease year by year, and Guangdong is a major pork consumption province. Under the background of the government's crackdown on pork smuggling in Vietnam, the price of live pigs is expected to return to the national high.

In the middle and late of this month, it will be the period when pig prices will rise the most.

Entering December, we can basically be regarded as entering the traditional consumption peak season. At present, bacon has been produced in many places in the south and is expected to reach its peak in the middle and late part of this month. This period is also a period for farmers to pay special attention to, because the peak demand is also the period when pig prices rise the most. At the same time, it is also a period when the output is relatively concentrated, and it is also a period when slaughtering enterprises try their best to suppress prices. Therefore, farmers should pay special attention. Always pay attention to the price difference between big pigs and standard pigs, and try to avoid concentrated slaughter.

Another point is that we clearly know when the peak demand season starts, but we need to know when the peak demand season ends. Generally, after entering the twelfth lunar month, about two weeks before the Spring Festival, the northern region will begin to enter the small peak demand for killing pigs, but the demand force and duration are less than that of bacon production, and the killing pigs are approaching the end of the year. Therefore, the end of the killing pigs in the north basically indicates the end of the peak demand of the whole year, and the supply and demand fundamentals will reverse rapidly.

Be wary of short-term northern pig prices or stagflation or even a small decline

In November, the price of live pig as a whole showed a small rise trend, especially in the north, which was obviously higher than that in the south, and the northeast once led the rise, and the trend of pig price rising in the north and stabilizing in the south was very obvious. However, after the price of pigs in Northeast China broke through 8.5 yuan, there was a narrowing of the increase and a small decline during the weekend.

This is mainly due to the weather factors in the northern region last month, snowfall, cooling weather hindered pig trading and transportation, resulting in tight pig source, enterprise procurement difficulties, coupled with a small increase in consumption, pig prices continued to rise. However, this also overstocked part of the production capacity to a certain extent, and these pig sources will eventually be released, there is still a month before the twelfth lunar month, the northern killing pig still needs to wait, therefore, after the weather factor weakened, the market demand is weak, pig price rise weak. In the short term, there may be stagflation or even a small decline in the northern region, while the market demand in the southern region forms a certain support for pig prices, or starts the rally. It is suggested that the principle of timely exit of farmers and safety of bags can avoid centralized exit to create opportunities for joint price reduction of slaughtering enterprises, and disperse the exit to resolve the risk of collapse.