2016 broiler price market: the demand increases at the end of the year, but there is a backlog in the early stage and the market reversal pressure is great.

What is the trend of broiler prices at the end of 2016? The trend of chicken prices in Zhejiang is running out of steam in November. Rebounded in the first ten days, continued to lack of sales in the middle, prices rose and fell back, but fell through the cost in the second ten days, and the comprehensive average price for the whole month was lower than the cost line. From the point of view of the breed, the price of bamboo chicken rebounded 6.8 yuan / jin in the first ten days, basically maintained at a high level in the middle and late ten days, and did not adjust back to about 0.4 yuan / jin until the end of the month, while the monthly amplitudes of fast, medium and high-quality varieties were all more than 0.8 yuan / jin.

The main factors affecting the trend of the broiler market in November are as follows:

First, consumption does not give power. Affected by the rain and snow in the middle and last ten days, the wholesale and terminal trading volume continued to slow down, the demand for broiler consumption was weak, and the continuation of the rainy weather was stagnant. The completion rate of the integrated breeding company's sales plan was only 85-95 in the 47th and 48th weeks.

Second, the pressure on the supply side has been increased again and again, which crosses the price limit. On the one hand, broilers grow faster and faster in autumn and winter, the market continues to run below the cost line, and all parties mainly operate in advance; on the other hand, middle and low-grade categories have not been effectively dredged at the end of October, and all parties continue to reduce prices in the middle and last ten days to strive for active volume removal. The phenomenon of concentrated hurdling caused by the superposition of the above two factors is the main reason for the sustained decline in prices.

Third, the tide is over and panic is everywhere. In the first ten days, due to the pull of continuous maintenance in rural areas, market sales are stable, and most of the varieties operate around the cost line, there is a consensus on price stabilization, but it is also at a loss. In the middle and late ten days, due to the influence of rain and snow in most areas of eastern China, farmers in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places have both fallen sharply in terms of volume and prices. Under the premise that the market is not clear, integrated farming companies have mainly reduced weight and age in the sales operation strategy, and the enthusiasm for stabilizing prices and trying to raise prices is not high, so the overall market has entered a rapid decline channel.

Fourth, chicken prices have fallen across the country, so it is difficult to be left alone. Chicken prices have been profitable for more than 10 months, and compared with the same period last year, all parties have chosen to expand appropriately in terms of the number of columns saved, but the circulation speed or digestion capacity of the existing hairy chicken has not been matched or synchronized with the current breeding scale, and the price pains caused by disorderly increments may have just begun.

The overall volume of hurdles in Zhejiang region increased month-on-month in December, in which the high-grade category increased significantly, while the low-grade category and the middle-grade category decreased significantly.

First, positive factors: 1. Before and after the Beginning of Winter, the consumption demand of dried chicken and pickled chicken in rural areas will increase. 2. The consumption of winter moon wine and banquet increases. 3. Connecting with New Year's Day at the end of the month is good for consumption during short holiday.

Second, negative factors: 1. Risk of epidemic situation in winter and spring. 2. It will take time to thoroughly digest the backlog in the early stage, and there is a great pressure on the short-term reversal of the market. 3. the influence of overcast and rainy weather.

Judging from the falling situation of national broiler prices and the number of regional memory columns at the end of November, it is expected that the broiler market will remain in the low price range in early December. At present, the fast category has fallen below the receiving and storage price line of slaughtering enterprises. Local slaughtering enterprises have started to enter the warehouse one after another, and the overall chicken price is expected to return rationally in the first ten days. Under favorable weather conditions, the prices of fast and high-quality public categories in the middle and first ten days are expected to rise steadily; before and after the Winter Solstice, both rural and township markets in Zhejiang have the habit of drying salted chickens, which will have a certain support for the volume and price of medium-and high-grade cocks, and the consumption base is relatively strong in the latter half of the year. It is suggested that volume should be given priority in operation, and prices should be raised actively on the basis of ensuring sales volume in the first ten days; in the middle of the year, prices should be stabilized to remove volume and gain profits; considering that consumption may decline after the Winter Solstice, prices will transition to New Year's Day in the latter ten days.