With the decrease of corn area, will corn prices rise in 2017?

The market price of corn in 2016 is more than 70 cents per jin. If the acreage is further reduced in 2017, can the price rise? Grain prices at home and abroad are upside down. How to solve this contradiction?

On November 25, the first high-level forum of Shandong Agricultural Science and Technology think Tank was held in Jinan. Experts and scholars from Renmin University of China, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the leading Group for comprehensively deepening Reform of the Shandong Provincial CPC Committee, the Provincial Association of Science and Technology, and the Provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences held discussions on the supply-side structural reform of agriculture. More than 200 representatives from the province's agricultural research front line attended the meeting.

This forum is jointly sponsored by the Office of the leading Group of the Shandong Provincial CPC Committee for comprehensively deepening Reform, the Shandong Science and Technology Association and the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and hosted by the Shandong Institute of Agricultural Sustainable Development.

The fall in corn prices is the inevitable result of not facing the market.

Corn prices have begun to decline since last summer and have historically fallen below 0.70 yuan / jin this year. Not to mention the large-scale corn growers, even farmers from one household to another almost lose money. This situation makes the farmers very hurt, but also makes the farmers very confused. Can corn be planted next year? Do not grow corn, grow soybeans, mung beans and other miscellaneous grains, what will be the price?

"this year, because the state implements the policy of market pricing and separation of price and compensation, the area of corn in the country has been reduced by about 30 million mu; the planting area of corn will certainly continue to decrease next year, but it is really hard to say whether the market price will rise or fall." He Xiurong, director of the library of China Agricultural University and counsellor of the State Council, believes that for a long time, like wheat and rice, farmers grow corn not because of the needs of the market, but because of government-sponsored acquisitions. Two or three years ago, the state continued to support it at the policy level because it was worried that "corn would become the second soybean", which led to the problem of "simultaneous increase of three quantities" (output, import and inventory) of corn in the past two years.

He Xiurong explained his point of view in detail with figures: according to the statistics of the China Grain Network, in 2015, the total domestic corn output was 219.7 million tons, the demand was 193.85 million tons, and the corn and its substitutes imported 42.35 million tons. The total supply exceeded the demand by 68.2 million tons that year. The difference between supply and consumption has been translated into the country's new corn stocks.

Therefore, Ho Hsiu-jung believes that the decline in domestic corn prices is not a matter of planting structure, but a matter of international price competitiveness. The prices of wheat, soybeans, rice and corn have been pegged upside down with the international market prices since 2012, and the production prices are about 1x3 higher than the CIF prices of international grain imports. In a globalized environment, we cannot violate economic laws for a long time, so it is necessary and necessary for the government to change its price policy; as for solving the problems of farmers' enthusiasm and farmers' income, other methods can be used at the policy level.

Stable income is the lifeblood of farmers.

"it is indeed a problem for grain prices at home and abroad to hang upside down." Tang Zhong, dean of the Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development of Renmin University of China, agrees with he Xiurong. He said: the original intention of the state in setting grain collection, storage and protection prices is to protect farmers' interests because we have long had the traditional concept that "land is the lifeblood of farmers." however, judging from the reality of farmers going out to work in recent years, this view needs to be changed. "Land is not the lifeblood of farmers; stable income is the lifeblood of farmers."

Tang Zhong and he Xiurong share the same views on the reasons for the "simultaneous increase of three quantities" of corn. At the same time, he believes that the price competitiveness of domestic corn is not easy to change in the short term, and the international market competitiveness of crops grown in the reduced area of corn is also unknown. For this reason, he proposed that China needs to take the initiative to fight a trade war: on the one hand, it can maintain the international market share of our country's grain and win a voice in the grain market; second, the result of trade retaliation can be realized to supplement agriculture with industry, which will eventually play a role in protecting farmers and protecting agricultural interests.

Implement characteristic planting to reduce the outflow of consumption power

"whether it is corn or miscellaneous grains, the key to whether they can be planted and sold is whether they are distinctive or not." Wang Dongyang, director of the Institute of Agricultural economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that in the network era, regardless of corn or other crops, what is planted is not the most important, "whether it can be planted and sold well is the most important."

Wang Dongyang analyzed that there is little arable land per capita in China, and it is not suitable for the national conditions to copy the large-scale and intensive methods of international agriculture. At present, the agricultural products imported from the international market are dominated by large-scale and intensive products. if we follow the concept of cultivating people with local water and soil, and carry out characteristic planting, such as miscellaneous grains and beans with regional characteristics, small oil crops with unique flavor, and products with geographical indications, it is a feasible way to create a characteristic brand to reduce the outflow of consumption power.

Wang Dongyang said that the development of the selenium industry in Enshi, Hubei Province can be used as a typical case of supply-side structural reform. In September 2011, Enshi, Hubei Province was awarded the title of "selenium Capital of the World", the state highly integrated the "selenium brand" into the construction of various characteristic industrial chains, and created four categories and 10 major industries, including selenium-rich agricultural products, selenium-rich animal husbandry products, selenium-rich tea, selenium-rich natural drinking mineral water, etc. In 2015, selenium products accounted for more than 60% of the state's agricultural sales.

The development of characteristic products can effectively prevent or reduce the outflow of consumption power. Wan Shubo, president of the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, expressed a similar view. In view of the situation in Shandong Province, he suggested that we can build high-end agricultural brands based on local characteristic products such as Yantai Apple, Laiyang Pear, Zhangqiu Welsh Onion, Jinxiang garlic, Qudi Cucumber, and promote the regionalization, scale, and brand development of famous, special, superior and new products, so as to improve quality and efficiency, and improve competitiveness.