Analysis of supply and demand of ginger from 2016 to 2017, how will the market price of ginger move?

Some time ago, the price of ginger increased significantly. Therefore, recently, it has been rumored in the society that after "garlic is ruthless", "Jiang your army" is going to make a comeback. However, as soon as the rumor came out, a number of media immediately refuted the rumor that the price of ginger rose only because of a temporary shortage of supplies.

That's right. Now this is the time when the new and old turmeric alternates and the ginger is green and yellow, and the supply is limited, so the price will naturally rise. Recently, our reporter visited major agricultural markets across the country and found that the price of ginger has begun to fall slowly. But the reporter also found that there have been new changes in the ginger market recently, which is described as "chaos" in one word. What on earth is going on?

November is the season for fresh ginger to come into storage. At the Diao Town vegetable Wholesale Market in Zhangqiu City, the reporter saw that compared with the upsurge in prices in early November, the price of ginger on the market has begun to fall. Vegetable wholesaler Liu Tao:

Liu Tao: now the price is falling, but the drop is not very large, because this period happens to be the immediate shipment of new ginger. If the new ginger is shipped, our price will be a little cheaper, and the overall price will fall by 30 or 40 cents.

The reporter saw that the ginger sold on the market is basically the old turmeric of last year, but the price is uneven. The cheap washed ginger is about 2.5 yuan, and the slightly expensive one can reach 4 yuan. Zhang Min, an analyst at Zhuochuang, said that the ginger market is a bit chaotic now, and the reason is that the quality of the old turmeric is uneven.

Zhang Min: the reason why the price is relatively chaotic is that there are both new and old goods on the market, the new ginger has not yet been formally supplied to the market, and the old goods are less. After all, they have been stored for a year, and the quality is also uneven, so there are all kinds of prices. And the price difference between good goods and bad goods is also relatively large.

Zhang Min told reporters that the recent "chaos" in ginger prices is also related to the supply psychology of sellers. In the special period of the alternation of old turmeric, as the stock of old turmeric is getting smaller and smaller, sellers are becoming more and more cautious in shipping, and everyone is waiting for the price to see the demand for shipment, and this situation also makes the price of ginger rise from time to time. a small shock in which the price falls from time to time.

Zhang Min: fresh ginger has been harvested in Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong provinces in early November. Fresh ginger cannot be sold during this period of time. Ordinary people have to wait about 40 days before fresh ginger can be put on the market. There is a gap in this market, mainly old turmeric. But at this time, ordinary people have entered the cellar with new ginger, and they are not in a hurry to store new goods everywhere, so the mentality of ordinary people in shipping goods is relatively calm. Even if the price is good, I will sell it, and if the price is not good, I will not worry. So when there is a certain demand in the market, the price depends on today's market demand. When the demand is large, the price will be a little lower, and if the price is less, the price will rise slightly.

Uneven quality and unstable supply and demand have led to irregular changes in the price of ginger recently. The reporter learned that in addition to some "chaos" in price changes, during the alternation of raw and old turmeric this year, the market of new ginger in the north and south is also different. Now, the northern ginger market is relatively normal, and sellers sell ginger at a reasonable price. However, some sellers in the south have hoarded and hesitated to sell because the market situation is difficult to meet expectations.

In addition, this year, due to the weather, the output of fresh ginger has also changed in different parts of the south and north, with an increase in production in some areas and a reduction in production in some areas, while unpredictable changes in production have also made many market wholesalers confused about the trend of ginger in the future. Wholesaler Liu Tao:

Liu Tao: the price may fall a little bit later, but it is impossible to say about this ginger, because some production areas have reduced production, while others have increased production. I estimate that this year's ginger is not much different from last year.

The reporter learned that due to different changes in increasing or reducing ginger production in different producing areas, recently, some people in the market have incited the "ginger production reduction theory," believing that weather change will affect national ginger production and lead to price changes. Analyst Zhang Min denied this.

Zhang Min: ginger is listed in front and back of Frosts Descent. From the perspective of Shandong, the main producing area this year, or from the northeast and south, after 16 years of Spring Festival this year, isn't it going to be more frequent in the south? in addition, it rains more frequently in July and August, so before the new ginger is on the market this year, there is a theory of production reduction on the market. These remarks, on the one hand, the weather has indeed affected the output of some producing areas. But the impact of most producing areas is not very great.

Zhang Min analysis said that in the later stage, fresh ginger will be listed one after another, and the old turmeric will gradually withdraw from the market, when the market transaction completes the transformation from old goods to new goods, and the price may gradually become clear.

Zhang Min: in view of the high purchase price of fresh ginger in October this year, cold storage stores and growers have higher expectations for the opening price of new turmeric, and based on the fact that depositors are not in a hurry to sell goods at the beginning of the market in 2016-2017, Zhuochuang predicts that if there is no significant change in domestic and foreign market demand before the Spring Festival, then the price of new turmeric in Shandong production areas may be adjusted slightly on the basis of this opening scale price, but there are no major waves.

On the whole, the yield of ginger this year will be better than last year, and this situation has also led to the enthusiasm of growers to grow ginger. In this regard, analyst Zhang Min reminded everyone not to expand the species blindly.

Zhang Min: as a condiment, the market demand for ginger is relatively limited after all. Under the main background that the relationship between supply and demand affects the price, it is suggested that the vast number of growers, as the main body of the ginger market, through timely understanding of market supply information and market price changes in recent years, reasonable arrangements for planting and shipping plans for each period of time to ensure their own income to the greatest extent.