Analysis of wheat price market: the probability of wheat rising again is not high.

Since late November 2016, the overall wheat market in the main producing areas has been stable and strong, and some prices have risen again after a brief correction in the first and middle days. Under the influence of the tighter and tighter food supply in the circulation market, the turnover situation of wheat auction continues to improve. With abundant global wheat stocks on the international market and rain on the southern Great Plains in the coming weeks, the drought eased and the contract price of CBOT wheat closed lower in recent months.

According to the monitoring of the China Grain Network data Center, as of November 24, the average transaction price of third-class white wheat in the country's main grain and oil wholesale markets was 2482 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan / ton from a week earlier. In the 45th issue of 2016, the national wheat purchase price index of stored grain was 139.17, up 0.12% from a week earlier.

Although the peak demand season in the wheat market is approaching, the market supply will be sufficient. As the base price of wheat auction is relatively stable, the wheat market under almost a single supply channel is difficult to breed too much change. It is expected that wheat prices before the Spring Festival will still be stable and strong, and the chances of another sharp rise are not high.

The overall stability of the wheat market is on the strong side, and local prices are slightly upward.

Since November, while increasing the number of wheat put in, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu provinces have successively put in 2015 wheat, which has increased the supply of food sources in the market, and wheat prices in most of the main producing areas have stopped rising and stabilized in the first and middle of the year. After entering the last ten days, due to the difficulties in purchasing high-quality grain sources in the market, coupled with more haze and overcast and rainy weather in Huanghuai region of North China, the arrival of wheat by milling enterprises decreased, and wheat prices rose slightly in some areas.

On November 25th, the purchase price of common medium wheat in Jinan, Shandong Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Zhengzhou, Jiangsu and Suzhou was 2520-2590 yuan / ton, 2540-2620 yuan / ton, 2440-2520 yuan / ton, 2460-2540 yuan / ton, 2460-2540 yuan / ton, and 20-40 yuan / ton, respectively.

The price of high-quality wheat in the main producing areas is on the strong side. The current entry price of "Gaoyou 2018" is about 2720 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 2660 yuan / ton in Heze, Shandong, and 2660 yuan / ton in Xinxiang, Henan. The factory price of "Zhengmai 366" in Heze, Shandong and Zhengzhou, Henan is about 2660 yuan / ton and 2660 yuan / ton, respectively. The import price of "Jinan 17" in Heze, Shandong Province is 2680 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province is about 2640 yuan / ton, which is 40-60 yuan / ton higher than at the beginning of the month in some areas.

According to the agricultural situation dispatching information of the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall progress of autumn and winter sowing is smooth. 300 million mu of winter wheat has been sown nationwide, accounting for 88.4% of the intended planting area. At present, the overall soil moisture in the winter wheat area is suitable, the proportion of first-class seedlings of winter wheat is 42.31%, and the proportion of second-class seedlings is 57.69%, which is slightly better than that of the same period last year.

The price of flour is basically stable, and the price of wheat bran is strengthening continuously.

According to the reflection of flour-making enterprises, the situation of flour delivery is general recently, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Although the overall start-up level is still between 40% and 50%, due to the good market demand, the start-up rate of special powder can reach 70% and 80%.

Last week, the ex-factory price of flour in Huanghuai region of North China was generally stable. Monitoring shows that the ex-factory price of special flour in Hebei Shijiazhuang area is 3100-3180 yuan / ton, Shandong Dezhou area special powder factory price is 3060-3160 yuan / ton, Henan Zhoukou area special powder ex-factory price is 3060-3120 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou area special powder ex-factory price is 3040-3100 yuan / ton, Anhui Suzhou special powder ex-factory price is 3060-3120 yuan / ton, the weekly ratio is basically flat.

Due to the low operating rate of flour enterprises, the supply of wheat bran is still limited, coupled with the recent increasing demand for wheat bran in feed and breeding, the willingness of flour enterprises to raise prices is strong, and the price of wheat bran continues to rise. At present, the ex-factory price of wheat bran is about 1540 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province, 1560 yuan / ton in Jinan area of Shandong Province, 1580 yuan / ton in Zhengzhou area of Henan Province, and 1620 yuan / ton in Xuzhou area of Jiangsu Province, all of which are up 40-60 yuan / ton compared with last week.

At present, the price of wheat in Huanghuai region of North China has risen slightly, and the pattern of "strong wheat and weak flour" continues, but due to the continuous rise in the price of wheat bran, the theoretical processing profit of milling enterprises has been improved. Monitoring shows that the theoretical processing profit of milling enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, Jinan, Shandong and Zhengzhou, Henan Province is-21 yuan / ton, 14 yuan / ton and 46 yuan / ton, respectively, with an average of 13 yuan / ton in the three places, up 4 yuan / ton from last week.

The supply of food in the market is getting tighter and tighter, and auction transactions continue to improve.

Recently, milling enterprises have generally reflected that due to the tight supply of grain in the circulation market, especially the limitation of high-quality wheat, even if the purchase price of wheat is raised slightly, it is still difficult to acquire. Some manufacturers have gradually shifted the focus of wheat procurement to auctions.

On November 22nd, a total of 2.7319 million tons of wheat were put on sale, with an actual turnover of 321900 tons, an increase of 95700 tons over last week; the transaction rate was 11.78 percent, 3.88 percent higher than last week; and the average transaction price was 2504 yuan per ton, lower than the average transaction price of 2506 yuan per ton last week.

Judging from the trading situation, the transaction rate remained at a high level in 2015. The sales of white wheat in Hebei in 2015 is planned to be 49945 tons, with an actual turnover of 49245 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.6 percent, 35.13 percent higher than last week. Shandong plans to sell 98700 tons of white wheat in 2015, with an actual turnover of 32754 tons, with a turnover rate of 33.18%, 18.93% higher than last week. Jiangsu sold 104957 tons of wheat in 2015 for the first time, with an actual turnover of 69603 tons, with a turnover rate of 66.326%.

On November 23, imported wheat auctioned a total of 77100 tons of soft red winter wheat in 2013, an increase of 10100 tons on a weekly basis; the actual turnover was 27100 tons, an increase of 1500 tons on a weekly basis; and the turnover rate was 35.06 percent, down 2.58 percent from the previous week.

At present, the price of wheat in the main producing areas has reached or even higher than the purchase cost of auction, and the price of new and old wheat has been basically in line with each other. The market expects that in the case of a substantial increase in the volume of concentrated purchases this year and a relatively tight supply of food in circulation in the market, the transaction situation of the auction in the later period will continue to improve.

Wheat price is expected to run on the strong side, and the chance of rising again is not high.

Since October, under the influence of tight grain supply and warmer demand in the market, wheat prices in the main producing areas have risen significantly, especially in North China, which leads the market. It can be said that wheat prices in some areas are already on the high side. With the increase in the number of wheat auctioned in the later stage, the price of wheat in the market will be restrained to some extent, and the "ceiling" effect of the policy will continue to appear.