Be careful to invest in growing garlic! "garlic is tough" all over again, there is a big risk behind high returns.

Garlic prices have been high this year, and garlic is making a comeback. Garlic prices continue to rise, setting off enthusiasm for growing garlic. According to reports, the growth of new garlic areas in Heze, Linyi, Liaocheng and other places around Jinxiang, Shandong is expected to be larger. The planting area of garlic in Xuzhou and its surrounding areas has increased by hundreds of thousands of mu. The planting area of garlic in some areas of Yunnan, Henan and Jiangsu has even increased by 20% and 30%. With the high price of garlic and the expansion of planting area, there is a sharp rise in planting costs.

Garlic is generally planted in October of that year, harvested around June of the second year, and the growth period is about 8 months, almost as long as the growth period of winter wheat in the north. From cultivated land and the purchase of garlic seeds, to the harvest of the next year, in addition to good years, each mu of land can produce about 400 jin of garlic bolts, sell 800 yuan, will more or less offset some of their own labor costs, growers have been investing. Once the garlic is harvested, it will directly face the market, coupled with the speculation of swimming capital taking advantage of the opportunity, so that the garlic industry has high returns and high risks. Here, we might as well take the planting of garlic in eastern Henan as an example, calculate the planting cost and income of garlic in detail, and judge the risk of garlic price at present.

Let's start with the cost. Since it is a kind of garlic, you have to buy it. Garlic is divided into garlic and cloves, the price of garlic cloves is naturally higher, and garlic is also divided into dry garlic and wet garlic. This year, the price of dried garlic starts from 5 yuan, rising all the way, reaching 9 yuan at the highest, and is now stable at around 6 yuan, while the price of wet garlic is cheaper, about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the price of dried garlic cloves is about 8.5 yuan per catty because it needs to be dried by itself. Planting one mu of garlic requires 240-300 jin of dried garlic per mu due to the different sizes of garlic cloves. 280jin of garlic, calculated according to 6 yuan per jin, costs about 1600 yuan. Compared with the same period last year, among the above-mentioned costs, the price of garlic has changed the most, with each catty about 4 yuan more expensive than when growing garlic last year, making it the largest expenditure among all costs.

Labor expenditure accounts for another large part of the cost of growing garlic. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, labor wages fluctuate a lot every year. But Henan is a populous province, and labor wages are relatively cheaper than those in other garlic producing areas. At present, female workers earn 60-80 yuan a day, some of them 90 yuan, while male workers earn about 120 yuan a day. It costs 200 yuan to hire people to grow garlic per mu and 50 yuan to administer medicine. During the growing period of garlic, it needs to be watered for 5 times, which costs about 250 yuan per mu of electricity and labor. When collecting garlic, dig it out with a machine, and then cut ears by hand and load it into a woven bag of 50 jin per mu, of which the machine needs 50 yuan per mu and artificial one mu needs about 400 yuan.

In addition, machine ploughing needs 50 yuan per mu of land; about 450 yuan per mu of base fertilizer and 120 yuan of intermediate topdressing, totaling about 600 yuan; seed coating 60 yuan per mu, plastic film 30 yuan, and pesticides 50 yuan, totaling about 140 yuan. To sum up, the cost of growing an acre of garlic in the 2016-2017 garlic season is about 3200 yuan, an increase of 50% over the previous season. Of course, this does not count the individual labor of the growers. Because the labor in Henan is cheaper, the cost of growing garlic in the garlic growing areas of Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and Anhui is not lower than that of Henan.

Besides, the output and income of garlic. In a normal year, the yield of wet garlic in eastern Henan is about 4000 jin per mu, and some good ones can reach about 5000 jin. Due to the good market of garlic in the 2015-2016 season, wet garlic costs 2.50 yuan per jin when it is purchased. In other words, excluding the cost, the net income per mu is about 8000 yuan. Generally speaking, one jin of dry garlic can be dried for every two jin of wet garlic, and about 2000 jin of dried garlic can be produced per mu. At present, the purchase price per jin of dried garlic is 5.8 yuan, and the wholesale price is 6.1 yuan. If you sell dried garlic, the income can reach about 10,000 yuan. But you have to bear the cost of drying wet garlic. In short, according to the general output, if the purchase price of wet garlic in 2016-2017 garlic season is about 1 yuan, the purchase price of dried garlic is about 1.6 yuan. If the purchase price of wet garlic is about 1.50 yuan, the net income of one mu of land is about 3000 yuan, which is much higher than that of planting corn and wheat. And this year's net income per mu is about 10,000 yuan, huge interests lead to enthusiasm for expansion.

Behind high returns is often high risk. According to Zhuochuang Information's 2015 study of Jinxiang garlic, the safety margin of the purchase price of dry garlic is 2600 yuan / mu, and the lower the purchase price is, the higher the safety factor is; if the purchase price of dried garlic goes up at 3100 yuan / mu, there will be risks, and the higher the purchase price, the greater the risk. At present, the purchase price of dried garlic is more than 10, 000 yuan per mu, coupled with the fact that the price of garlic has risen continuously in 2015 and 2016, and this year, the retail price has hit the 10 yuan mark, even higher than the peak in 2010. It can be said that the risk is brewing, which should be highly concerned by growers and investors.