Is the compound fertilizer market like a cluster of rising prices or empty joy?

At the end of November 2016, the provisional quotations for winter storage of compound fertilizer were issued one after another, and the quotations of compound fertilizer enterprises also rose due to the obvious influence of the rising price of raw materials. Now a small number of enterprises with 45% chlorine-based general compound fertilizer are quoted at 1630-1750 yuan / ton; the high-end quotation is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. A small number of enterprises with 45% sulfur-based general compound fertilizer offer 1850-1950 yuan / ton for winter storage, about 2100 yuan / ton for high-end, and 1750-1780 yuan / ton for low-end. The quotation is very chaotic, the mainstream price is still difficult to form, and the market demand for compound fertilizer is also quite chaotic. It is mainly shown in the following aspects:

First, the quotation has risen, but the transaction is limited, and the enterprise is dominated by pre-orders for the time being. After urea began to raise its quotation in August, the prices of phosphate and potash fertilizer have also been raised one after another.

After three months of watching the chemical fertilizer market, compound fertilizer finally took the step of price increase: starting from mid-November, compound fertilizer enterprises began to try to issue provisional quotations for winter storage, compared with autumn fertilizer tail price. the initial winter storage quotation remained stable or increased slightly by about 30-50 yuan per ton, and with the expansion of the raw material price, the winter storage quotation of compound fertilizer began to increase gradually in the past week. The price increase has also reached 80-120 yuan per ton. although the increase is gratifying, the demand is not optimistic. up to now, the winter storage collection of most compound fertilizer enterprises is only 30%, 40%, mainly old customers, and mostly implement low-end quotations in the early stage, so, in the short term, the rising price of compound fertilizer has not been fully accepted by the lower reaches, which is still an empty joy for the time being.

Second, underemployment, the performance of enterprises is different. By the end of November, according to a survey of hundreds of large compound fertilizer enterprises by the China Chemical Fertilizer Network, it was found that the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was not high, about 50%, especially in Hebei, affected by environmental inspection, most local enterprises are still in a state of parking and overhauling; in addition, due to the frequent fluctuations in recent raw material prices, the early low-cost raw material reserves of a few enterprises are not sufficient, and they have suspended receiving orders recently to wait and see the market. There are also some enterprises affected by cost constraints, the quotation tentatively rose slightly, but the downstream acceptance is not good, the transaction of new orders is slow, so that the recent quotation is forced to land. However, most compound fertilizer enterprises still maintain a rational attitude to wait and see the market situation, or pay interest, do not quote for the time being, or make a tentative offer, and adjust at any time with the changes in demand and raw material prices, so in the face of the recent chemical fertilizer market, compound fertilizer enterprises should also move at the same time and remain calm.

Third, demand is light, enterprises are blindly optimistic, government policies have a great influence, and market manipulation appears. The main factors affecting the price of compound fertilizer are the cost of raw materials and the market demand. although the price of raw materials has been strong recently, and the psychology of raising prices of compound fertilizer manufacturers is also relatively strong, but the operating rate of 50% seems to warn people not to be blindly optimistic. After all, grain prices are so low, and the mentality of bystanders downstream is still not scattered. At the same time, the recent rise in raw materials is closely related to the introduction of government policies. The manipulation of market participants is faint, so in the chaotic chemical fertilizer market, compound fertilizer should be rational and should not be blindly optimistic.

Finally, I use a poem from Tang Yin's "Peach Blossom nunnery Song" to conclude: "other people laugh at me because I am so windy, but I laugh at others that I can't see through it." There are no tombs of Wuling heroes, no flowers and no wine hoe to make fields. "

(source: China Fertilizer Network, author: Yang Xiaomei)