Wheat price market analysis: the high wheat price "watch" is expected to rise again.

Since November, with the continuous increase in the number of wheat stored in the country, the market pattern of tight regional supply has eased, wheat prices in the main producing areas have stopped rising and stabilized, and local prices fluctuate slightly. Market monitoring shows that by the end of mid-November, the entry price of ordinary wheat from flour mills in the main producing areas is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, which basically fluctuates in the range of 20-40 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month. The increase in the number of wheat stored by the state has eased the contradiction between supply and demand in the market to a certain extent. It is expected that wheat prices will be stable in late November when the market is relatively stable.

The high price of wheat tends to stabilize and the new and old are basically in line with each other.

Since the beginning of November, the state has timely stepped in to strengthen policy regulation and control, increasing the quantity of wheat in temporary storage, and the heat of wheat market purchase and sale is obviously lower than that in October. At the same time, under the influence of the weakening of the bullish mentality of the market, the willingness of some grain holders to sell wheat is also increasing. Recently, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has basically eased, and wheat prices in the main producing areas are mostly high and stable.

At present, the entry price of ordinary new wheat in Hebei and Shandong flour enterprises is 2560,2620 yuan / ton, and the price in most areas is higher than that of stored wheat. The price of ordinary new wheat above medium level in Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei is 2500-2560 yuan / ton, and the price in some areas is basically the same as that of policy grain sources.

Since November, with the launch of Toshimai in 2015, the price of Pumai has stopped rising and stabilized. Affected by this, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in the main producing areas has maintained a steady trend in the near future. At present, the purchase price of medium-quality wheat of "Gaoyou 2018" in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is 2680 yuan / ton, and that of "Jinan 17" of Shandong Province is 2690 yuan / ton. The price difference of Youpu wheat is about 100 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year.

Affected by the recent haze weather, corn prices have risen in some areas, corn and wheat prices have risen slightly. At present, the price of corn and wheat in Shandong is 0.72, which is basically the same as that in the middle period, while that in Hebei is 0.66, up 0.01, and that in Henan is 0.73, up 0.01. As wheat still does not have a price advantage over corn, the National Grain and Oil Information Center estimated in November that wheat feed consumption in 2016 and 2017 would be 8 million tons, down 2 million tons from the previous month.

The wheat is strong and the flour is weak, and the profit is still balanced at the bran price.

According to milling enterprises, the operating rate of enterprises has been reduced recently, resulting in a reduction in flour supply, coupled with the current wheat price is still in a high position, flour price operation also basically maintained a stable and medium-strong trend.

At present, the ex-factory price of special flour in the main producing areas is 3060,3180 yuan / ton, an increase of 20,40yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. According to monitoring, after the overall decline of 400.80 yuan / ton in July, flour prices in the producing areas have rebounded by more than 140 yuan / ton since August, but it is still lower than the rate of increase in wheat prices.

Due to the low operating rate of flour mills, the limited supply of wheat bran, and the cooler weather and longer storage time, the price of wheat bran has recently risen "eye-catching", rising again and again. At present, the price of wheat bran in flour-making enterprises in the main producing areas has generally risen to 1480,1560 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Although the current wheat and flour market still shows a pattern of "strong wheat and weak flour", the recent rise in wheat bran prices has basically balanced the processing profits of flour mills. Monitoring shows that the current theoretical processing profit of powder enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is-27 yuan / ton, Jinan in Shandong Province is 6 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou in Henan Province is 63 yuan / ton, and the average profit in the three places is 14 yuan / ton, which is 48 yuan / ton higher than the average profit at the beginning of the month.

The auction is gradually going to the inventory to welcome the opportunity.

Since November, the number of wheat stored by the state has increased. Although the transaction volume fluctuates greatly on a weekly basis, and the inter-regional trading situation is also different, the overall transaction is still active. The three trading volumes from November 1 to 15 were 473200 tons, 189700 tons and 206200 tons respectively, with a turnover rate of 16.68%, 7.18% and 7.9% respectively. For the bidding market, which has been in the doldrums since the second half of last year, it is not too much to describe it as "willow and dark flowers".

From the perspective of regional market transactions, Hebei and Shandong experienced large auction transactions at the beginning of the month, the transaction rate declined nearly twice, indicating that the tight situation of grain supply in the two places has been basically alleviated. Since November, the trading volume of wheat in Jiangsu has been increasing, mainly due to the general deviation in the quality of stranded grain sources in Jiangsu market and the tight supply of wheat that meets the quality requirements of milling enterprises.

On November 18, Jiangsu Changzhou Grain and Oil Storage and Transportation Company sold all 3939 tons of red wheat produced in 2015 through competitive bidding, with a starting price of 2420 yuan / ton, a maximum transaction price of 2600 yuan / ton, a minimum transaction price of 2545 yuan / ton, and an average transaction price of 2577.23 yuan / ton. The auction competition is fierce, and the highest premium is 180 yuan / ton.

It is reported that since November 22, Jiangsu Province has also begun to routinely put in 2015 wheat to support the market, and it is estimated that the tight market pattern of supply and demand in the market will gradually ease.

Recently, as the market price of wheat continues to rise, the price in the main producing areas has reached or even higher than the purchasing cost of policy grain sources, and the price of new and old wheat has basically been in line with each other. The author believes that at present, the channel for temporary storage wheat to enter the market has been basically opened, and in the case of a substantial increase in centralized purchase volume this year and a relatively tight supply of food in circulation in the market, the focus of wheat procurement in late-stage milling enterprises will gradually shift to auctions. the national policy wheat "destocking" may usher in a new opportunity.

The price of wheat will still be strong when the demand enters the peak season

According to the usual practice, after entering December, the demand for flour is gradually booming, the purchasing demand for wheat is increasing, and the increase in demand will become an important factor driving up wheat prices. Due to the Spring Festival in 2017 earlier than the previous year, flour mills may start stock ahead of the festival, supported by this, it is expected that wheat prices are still strong.

From the point of view of the supply and demand of the circulation market, there will be less and less high-quality wheat in the market over time. Although some large flour mills often purchase grain sources through the national trading market, some small and medium-sized enterprises still rely on market wheat to maintain production, and tight food supplies in the market will continue to support wheat prices.