2017 Rex rabbit price forecast: will the market price of Rex rabbit skin rise?

Will there be any hope in the Rex rabbit skin market in 2017? This is a topic that makes the majority of Rex rabbit breeders, operators and professional workers very tangled and confused. Since the Rex rabbit skin market fell to a low ebb in the second half of 2013, its long time and low price have made history. The so-called "play" here is whether the market price can return to the normal level. When can we jump out of this annoying abyss?

There was a lot of drama in the Rex rabbit skin market.

You know, in the 16 years from the beginning of the world to the present, the Rex rabbit skin market has been a good "play":

As early as 2000, the price of Rex rabbit skin reached 50 yuan per piece, which triggered a nationwide craze for raising Rex rabbits.

In 2004, the data obtained by the author showed that the average annual price of endothelium in Zhejiang survey sites reached 49.71 yuan. with rabbit meat, the value of commercial rabbits was about 70 yuan, while the feeding cost was only about 30 yuan at that time.

In October 2010, at the "China Rabbit Industry scale and efficiency Innovation Forum" held in Linyi, Mr. Gao Bailu of Xinchang, Zhejiang Province, made an impromptu speech at the conference, citing an example of high-quality leather sold at a sky-high price of 110-120 yuan in Xinchang. Recently, a senior Rex rabbit breeder in Xinchang, Zhejiang, chatted with the author on Wechat. She set the rational price of thousands of skins stored in the freezer last winter and this spring at 60 yuan. Of course, do not forget to tease yourself: at present, talking about this price seems a bit impossible.

Until the first half of 2013, the average price of Zhejiang survey sites still reached 53.70 yuan. In September of that year, during the third Rabbit Industry Development Conference held in Yangling, Shaanxi Province, a Rex rabbit owner in Ningbo said that his thousands of seasonal skins were not sold at a price of 70 yuan, which showed that people were quite confident at that time. But three years later, in the face of the ultra-low price of 10-15 yuan on the market, the industry seems to have a sense of another world.

How much is the stock of rabbit skin?

Now, we would like to make some preliminary arrangements and discussions on the topics of common concern.

First of all, how much is the domestic output of Rex rabbit skin? To what extent is the social stock?

In the special reports and various articles over the past decade, opinions vary, with hundreds of millions and millions saying that the disparity in the data is astonishing.

Not long ago, the China Leather Association announced the annual output of mink, fox and raccoon dog in 2015, including 45.5 million mink skins, a decrease of 25.83% from 2014, and a stock of about 120 million mink skins. What about the output of Rex rabbit skin? I didn't say. Rex rabbit is a small livestock, widely distributed, sales are divided into live rabbits and flesh separation of two ways, the mobility of the skin is large, it is indeed difficult to accurate statistics. But a few years ago, the author on the domestic annual output of Rex rabbit skin in 30 million pieces of the argument is obviously conservative. Now, during the peak year, it is estimated that the output is more than 100 million pieces, and for well-known reasons, the number of skins on the market will be larger than that of commercial rabbits. Under the premise that the domestic breeding of Rex rabbits has been greatly reduced, according to the Fur Information Network, the daily slaughter number of Rex rabbits in Linyi, Shandong and Wujiawan, Jining is still tens of thousands and 3000-5000 respectively. This shows that the breeding capacity of Rex rabbits in Hebei, Shandong and Henan is still considerable, thanks to the fact that the price of rabbit meat has always been maintained at more than 20 yuan per kilogram, and the purchase weight of commercial live rabbits has also dropped to 3.5-4 jin (the most cost-effective period for raising).

At present, the social inventory of Rex rabbit skin is mainly concentrated in circulation merchants, large and medium-sized rabbit farms and some fur enterprises, and exists in three forms: semi-finished products (that is, plates), cooked skins and fresh skins stored in cold storage. In view of commercial reasons, most leather merchants are reluctant to disclose their actual stock, but based on the analysis of the fur markets in Shangcun, Liushi Daying, Tongxiang and Haining, Zhejiang Province, it is estimated that the stock may be more than 50 million pieces. According to the processing amount used in the past two years, the pressure is still great.

Why is Rex rabbit skin no longer popular?

As we all know, the largest consumption of Rex rabbit skin is clothing road, this kind of leather requires good quality, the price is also high. However, in the past two years, the consumption of clothing has been greatly reduced, and the reasons are as follows: first, the economic downturn in Russia, a big country of fur consumption, and the sales of fur clothing exported to Russia have decreased by 2/3. Second, the low price of mink has seriously affected the consumption of Rex rabbit skin, and abandoning otters with mink has become an option for many fur manufacturers. Third, sheep shearing clothing was popular last winter, which further reduced the amount of Rex rabbit skin. Fourth, Rex rabbit fur clothing is easy to shed hair, not wear-resistant, afraid of moisture defects gradually appear, affecting the enthusiasm of consumers.

There is no doubt that in recent years, great changes have taken place in the fur market, and Rex rabbit fur clothing is not very popular, which is in contrast to the popularity of more than a decade ago.

So, what are the new trends in the product development of Rex rabbit skin?

In the face of huge inventory pressure, fur manufacturers are also using their brains to develop new products, and this year's trend is mainly in accessories. Hebei Daying manufacturers developed cute rabbits and other jewelry pendants, digested part of the medium and low-grade leather sheets, it is reported that the daily purchase volume of Daying merchants in Shangcun market reached 3000-5000 pieces. However, the price of cooked skin for cute rabbits is generally no more than 20 yuan. Now small hair collar, scarf, hat, pendant and other accessories all require hair to be longer, which is called "big hair" in jargon, which is also a new challenge to the short and dense quality index of Rex rabbit skin formed for many years, and the price of making ornaments is not high. In the Chongfu market in Zhejiang, the price of small collar cooked leather for domestic sales is only 30-35 yuan, therefore, it is unrealistic to expect a big rebound in the price of jewelry development.

Will it repeat the high prices in history?

The summer period is the season with the worst quality of Rex rabbit skin. the price of commercial rabbits slaughtered at more than 5 jin on the market this summer is only about 10 yuan, while the low-grade one is only 3-5 yuan, which is almost the same as that of rabbit skin. such a price was simply unimaginable five years ago. It should be said that the price has reached the bottom and can only be disposed of as garbage. Winter prices will of course be higher than they are now, but the analysis of the situation in recent years has also declined year by year: 40-45 yuan in 2013, 30-35 yuan in 2014, and 20-25 yuan in 2015. It is expected that this year's seasonal skin prices will be higher than last year, but the key depends on clothing sales this winter.