Fertilizer off-season chemical fertilizer prices do not fall but rise who is behind it?

For Zhejiang and Fujian, which are mainly planting cash crops, it is the off-season for crop fertilizer at present, but the price of chemical fertilizer has not been reduced as in previous years, but has risen in varying degrees.

Multiple factors push up fertilizer prices

In the early days, the industry generally believed that there was no room for urea prices to rise, so most of them did not reserve chemical fertilizers. In the past month, the price of urea rose significantly, with an increase of 300-400 yuan per ton, which came as a surprise to many people.

The main reasons are: first, manufacturers not only increase the price of raw materials such as coal, but also increase transportation costs by 30%. Secondly, in the sales link, from manufacturers to distributors, and then to grass-roots retailers, transportation costs rise in every link.

It is expected that the urea price will remain at the current price or increase on this basis in the later stage. In this case, urea sales began to improve, and many dealers and retailers began to stock up on urea. Driven by the rise in urea prices, the sentiment of other fertilizer production enterprises waiting for an increase in prices has increased, and some manufacturers have experienced tentative increases. The price of compound fertilizer is expected to rise in the later stage, but the increase will not be too large.

The limit of excess makes the logistics tense.

Since the implementation of the strictest overorder in history on September 21, there has been a serious shortage of transport capacity and rising transport costs. It is estimated that the increase in logistics costs alone has led to an increase of 70-80 yuan per ton of chemical fertilizer. For example, chemical fertilizers in Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province are mainly transported by water, which is heavily affected by restrictions. Containers are stranded in Shanghai Port, and it takes a month to transport them from Wuhan to the local area, resulting in insufficient distribution of local chemical fertilizers and rising prices again. It has a great impact on the supply and demand of the local market.

Dealers are in a wait-and-see mood.

At present, the overall overcapacity of chemical fertilizer, for the winter storage, many dealers said that the winter storage must be carried out, but to grasp the degree, not blindly excessive reserves. In addition, stimulated by the recent sharp rise in urea prices, grass-roots retailers began to increase their willingness to take goods, but they still do not know when it will be the lowest point. In particular, affected by the resumption of value-added tax in August last year, many dealers and retailers prepared a large number of goods, but fertilizer prices not only did not rise as expected, but fell seriously, resulting in serious losses among dealers. At present, both dealers and retailers are worried about a repeat of what happened last year, so most retailers are still hesitant. If the price is stable or continues to rise, dealers will make up their mind to reserve fertilizer in winter in order to avoid being out of stock in the later period.