Corn market forecast: the purchase and sale task is heavy, the corn market is difficult to "cat winter"

I. spot market

Northeast producing areas: farmers have a high mood of holding grain and waiting.

Recent statistics from the National Grain Source Information Center show that in the week to November 16, the progress of grain sales by farmers in three provinces and one region in Northeast China was 15%, which was 8% slower than the same period last year, especially in Heilongjiang. Grass-roots purchase prices remain low, and farmers have a strong wait-and-see mood in selling grain, but they face the pressure of loan repayment before January, while agricultural materials for festivals and spring sowing in the coming year need to be realized, and the pressure remains in the later period of the producing area.

North China production area: rain and snow boost the market shock is too strong

With the strongest cold air set off in the second half of the year, the average temperature dropped by 6-10 ℃. Last night, Henan, Shandong and Hebei ushered in heavy snow and blizzard at the beginning of this year. The snow cover on the road, the ice on the road, and the reduction in the arrival of enterprises. Recently, some deep processing enterprises in Shandong Province have increased their factory gate purchase by 20 yuan / ton. However, after this round of rain and snow, paying attention to the rise and fall of temperature will bring challenges to the storage of grain quality in the producing area.

Southern sales area: the deal is now rising high and falling back.

In some inland areas of the sales area, such as Sichuan and other places, due to the continuous tight railway capacity, the arrival and transaction prices continue to rise, but the volume of railway arrival in central China, such as Jiangxi, is more obvious than in the previous period. Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places account for the mainstream of market transactions in the new season, and with the reduction of sea freight prices and the increase in terminal arrival, the overall transaction price rises and falls by 20-50 yuan / ton. The market shock correction may provide conditions for stock preparation before the Spring Festival.

North-South Port: freight reduction of Northern liner

Recently, the arrival and unloading operations have been blocked by snowfall in the origin and port, especially in Bayuquan Port, where more vehicles are stranded. In addition, the current collection port corn is basically pre-contract delivery, and the overall market in Beigang is strong. However, this week, the freight of the northern liner was reduced to 86 yuan / ton and reduced by about 6 yuan / ton. the carry-over inventory is expected to reach more than 250000 tons this week. under the expectation of a significant rebound in stocks in the port, the price of mainstream corn in Guangdong Port has been weakly adjusted.

Feed farming: guard against the effect of cold winter on breeding

Experts predict that this winter in China may be a cold winter, traffic and transportation, as well as cold winter weather is very prone to influenza, diarrhea and other pig diseases. In winter, especially the recent sharp drop in temperature, pig disease has also entered a high incidence period. at present, pig disease is mainly diarrhea and respiratory syndrome, and market research shows that swine influenza is on the rise. At the same time, pig disease shows a development trend from north to south, which reminds us to do a good job in enclosure management.

Deep processing: starch product price is supported

Recently, the quotation of starch products has been continuously raised by 20-50 yuan / ton. at present, the mainstream quotation of starch in North China is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of starch in Northeast China is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. the current enterprise raw material procurement and product generation are mainly contract orders. some downstream enterprise product purchase orders to mid-December, with the late pre-festival stock opening one after another, starch product prices are supported.

Second, market forecast

Most of the main production of "Lesser Snow" in the north is affected by a round of cold air, which is mainly affected by strong wind, rain and snow, among which there will be strong snowfall in the western part of Huang-Huai River, the north of Jianghan and other places. Cooling is temporarily beneficial to the preservation of grass-roots corn, especially the low shock of prices in producing areas further weakens the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain, and short-term grain prices are supported. However, due to the pressure of loan repayment in advance of the Spring Festival this year, entering the corn spot market in December will inevitably face a wave of impact from grass-roots lending, so farmers are advised to sell grain at the right time. At the same time, with the advance of the Spring Festival this year, the superimposed logistics capacity is not smooth enough, and the task of purchasing and preparing grain downstream is also relatively arduous.