Pig price market analysis: the rising trend of pig prices before the Spring Festival in 2016 is unabated

Since October 2016, pig prices began to fall, falling below 8 yuan per catty at one point, but with the advent of the traditional pickling season, pig prices began to pick up gradually, which will continue until before the Spring Festival, according to industry insiders.

The price of meat is rising rapidly.

The price of "second brother" has gone up again, and now the wholesale price of white pork is 9.5 to 10 yuan per jin! On November 18, the reporter learned in the fresh meat wholesale area of Zhougudui Agricultural products Wholesale Market in Hefei that pork prices have risen recently, and livestock and poultry meat trading is about to enter the peak season. Li Tao, head of the Zhougudui Market Information Department, said that the daily wholesale volume of pork is about 400 tons, and the wholesale price of white pork is 9.5 to 10 yuan per jin, an increase of 3.1 from the previous week. With the advent of the pickling season, meat trading volume has increased significantly.

On the morning of November 19, citizens carrying pork waiting for sausages filled a stall in front of a vegetable market on Wangjiang West Road in Hefei. "the price of meat has gone up again in the past few days, and the price of pork per jin is one or two yuan higher than that of last month. A sister-in-law in line said that the price of meat has not been cheap this year. She is not going to pickle the cured meat, only filling it with sausages. An owner of the vegetable market said that it is a bit early to pour sausages nowadays. Usually, after entering the Winter Solstice, he starts to make bacon sausages. However, this year's Spring Festival comes early, the temperature has dropped recently, encountered good weather, early filling of sausages, the taste will not be too bad. Once the pickling peak of bacon sausage is reached, the price of pork will rise.

The price of live pigs rebounded

Ma Zhipeng, a big pig farmer in Liupu Town, Yingshang County, told reporters that the price of local pigs has risen to 8.2 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.5 yuan over last month. "now more and more people buy live pigs. I can earn 400 to 500 yuan for a 200-jin fat pig." Ma Zhipeng said that the benefit of raising pigs this year is still very good, and he will expand the scale of raising pigs next year. Zhang Xing, a pig farmer in Xinqiao Village, Tongcheng Economic Development Zone, said that the price of live pigs is now significantly higher than last month, reaching 8.4 yuan per catty. He has just released 500 fat pigs these days, earning 500 yuan per pig. "I believe pork prices will continue to rise before the Spring Festival. Early in the Spring Festival this year, pig prices will keep rising from now on. Chen Qingwen, a pig farmer at Wanhe Farm in Anqing City, told reporters that the price of local pigs per jin increased by 1 yuan over the previous month, reaching 8.5 yuan. A fat pig weighing 200 jin will earn at least 450 yuan. "I will put out 900 fat pigs next month. I estimate that the price of live pigs will reach more than 9 yuan per jin at that time. "

The rising trend will continue until the Spring Festival.

Yin Zongjun, an expert on pig farming at Annong University, said that recently, the Ministry of Agriculture released data on the stock of sows and pigs in October 2016. the stock of sows in October was 36.96 million, down 3.9 from the same period last year, while the stock of pigs was 377.09 million, down 3.4 from the same period last year. In the early stage, due to the decline in pig prices, farmers increased the proportion of elimination of aged sows, and the elimination of aged sows was almost over by the end of October, and the elimination volume began to decline compared with the previous month. Due to the decrease of pig price in June, the first mating number of sows dropped further to 60-650000 in October, so that the stock of breeding sows could continue to decline. The reason for the decline in pig prices in the early stage is the increase in the survival rate of piglets, resulting in a phased increase in the number of piglets, a drop in corn prices, a sharp increase in imported pork, and so on. The reasons for the recovery in the later period are that the weather turns cool, the temperature drops, the early selling volume is too large, the stock gradually decreases, the farmers press the fence equivalent, and the quantity of imported pork decreases gradually. with the further decrease of the temperature, the demand for bacon begins to increase. Pig prices will pick up further.

New Pig Network expects pig prices to rise in the short and medium term, mainly based on the following factors: the peak season for traditional pork consumption is from December to January next year, and the increase in demand will further support pig prices. In the medium term, the stock of fertile sows is still under construction. According to the supply of live pigs after 10 to 12 months, it is expected that the supply of live pigs will still be in short supply next year, and pig prices are expected to rise to the middle of next year.