What price secrets does the overnight rich "garlic you ruthless" hide?

"there is a saying in the garlic industry that 'garlic is difficult to calculate'. I have grown garlic for more than 30 years, but I have not found out the temper of garlic price." Mao Guangsong, a garlic farmer in Maogai Village, Dameng Town, Zhongmou County, Henan Province, said that he began to grow garlic in 1979, witnessing the sharp rise and fall of garlic and tasting the joys and sorrows of garlic farmers.

"this year is the most profitable year for me to grow garlic in so many years, earning 10,000 yuan per mu." Mao Guangsong said that he planted 17 mu of garlic last year, and when he harvested in May this year, dried garlic sold for more than 5 yuan per jin, more than double the price last year.

Since July this year, the price of garlic has been rising, with the price coming out of the freezer as high as 7 yuan per jin, and some supermarkets even exceed 10 yuan. The common people shouted "garlic is ruthless" and came back.

In Mao Guangsong's memory, garlic prices skyrocketed and plummeted in the past 10 years, and he clearly remembers the sharp drop in garlic prices in 2008.

"at that time, the price of wet garlic was more than 20 cents per jin, and no one collected the garlic in the fields, because the money sold was not enough to pay the wages, and then large tracts of garlic were ploughed into the fields. I can't find the owner of the garlic stored in the freezer, so I don't want it any more, because the money sold is not enough to pay for the cold storage. " Mao Guangsong said.

In that year, Mao Guangsong planted 10 mu of garlic and lost nearly 20,000 yuan. Those who lose the most are not garlic growers, but garlic hoarders. Garlic stored at more than 1 yuan per jin in 2007 sold more than 20 cents per jin in 2008. Liu Shaochen, president of Zhongmou County Cold Storage and fresh-keeping Association, lost more than 8 million yuan, but he hasn't fully earned it back until this year.

The price of garlic remained low until March 2009, but after the new garlic went on the market in May, the price of garlic began to rise, reaching 3.5 yuan per jin at one point and as high as eight or nine yuan in supermarkets. The word "garlic is ruthless" stems from that wave of soaring garlic prices.

"the people who stored garlic in the past really got rich overnight, making a net profit of more than 6500 yuan per ton." Liu Shaochen said, "but I already lost money in the first year. I didn't store garlic and made no money, so the price of garlic is hard to calculate."

But in that wave of price increases, Mao Guangsong did not earn much money. He sold it for more than 2 yuan per jin. "for garlic farmers, you have to sell both high and low, and it will sprout if you don't store it in the freezer in September."

Mao Guangsong said that since 2009, the "garlic fried army" has emerged as a new force, and the atmosphere of "fried garlic" has become more and more serious. "in 2009, I remember that a truckload of garlic was tossed by 12 people, from 800 yuan per ton to more than 3000 yuan per ton. I also joined in. After buying it, I saved it for some time and sold it at a price of 4000 yuan per ton. "

But the collapse in garlic prices in 2013 cost Mao Guangsong more than 2 million yuan, and he has not hoarded garlic since then. "fried garlic means' big money eats small money'. Some large households take a few hundred million yuan to save 30,000 to 40,000 tons, and after they stir-fry the price, he sells it quickly. Small households follow the big ones and often fall into the ditch, and the price of garlic has not been sold yet. " Mao Guangsong said.

Liu Shaochen said that large households often do research, investigate the planting area when planting garlic, judge the yield when the garlic bolts come down, and then investigate the yield when harvesting, so he has much more information than small households. But even so, big investors sometimes lose money, and no one can fully control the price.

"there are conditions for fried garlic. It can only be stir-fried when the supply is small. For example, when garlic production has been reduced due to weather this year, some capital has come in, hoarding garlic, aggravating the market shortage, and pushing up the price of garlic. On the other hand, the opacity of market information also leaves room for fried garlic. " Liu Shaochen said.

Now, in addition to growing garlic every year, Mao Guangsong also sells garlic bolts, radishes, onions and other agricultural products. Prices also rise and fall. He has become accustomed to it.

This year, Mao Guangsong rented more than 10 mu of land and planted 30 mu of garlic. he knows that farmers in surrounding counties and cities have also increased the area of growing garlic, and prices may fall next year, but why does he still plant it?

"judging from my experience of growing garlic for more than 30 years, there are still few years in which the price of garlic has skyrocketed and plummeted, and most years are mediocre. As long as the price of dried garlic is not less than 1.5 yuan per jin, you can earn a little, which is more profitable than growing wheat on the whole." Mao Guangsong said.

Mao Guangsong said that he knows that it is impossible for the government to take full control of small commodities like garlic, but it still depends on the market, but he hopes that the government can set up more agricultural subsidies or insurance, so that farmers can feel more at ease about farming. Because he knows from experts that there are a lot of agricultural subsidies in Europe and the United States.