Analysis of wheat price trend: wheat enters the stage of rest, or the market is still strong

In mid-November 2016, under the influence of the persistently high level of wheat input, the market was bullish on wheat prices in the future, and wheat prices in the main producing areas tended to be basically high. According to monitoring by the China Grain Network data Center, as of November 17, the average transaction price of third-class white wheat in the country's main grain and oil wholesale markets was 2479 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton from a week earlier. In the 44th issue of 2016, the national wheat purchase price index of stored grain was 139.00, down 0.35% from the previous week.

According to a notice issued by the State Grain Trading Center on November 21, 2016, 100000 of the lowest purchase price of wheat produced in Jiangsu Province in 2013 will be sold from November 22, 2016. for details, please pay attention to the transaction announcement and transaction list.

So far, the national 2015 wheat auction has been expanded to Hebei, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces.

The contradiction between supply and demand has been gradually alleviated, and most of the high wheat prices have stabilized.

Since the beginning of November, the auction market has increased its volume, and the buying and selling heat of the market has obviously cooled down compared with October. At the same time, under the influence of the weakening of the bullish mentality, some grain holders are also willing to sell wheat. Recently, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has basically eased, and wheat prices in the main producing areas tend to stabilize at high levels.

On November 18, the purchase prices of ordinary medium wheat in Jinan, Shandong, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Zhengzhou, Jiangsu and Suzhou were 2520-2580 yuan / ton, 2540-2600 yuan / ton, 2440-2500 yuan / ton, 2460-2520 yuan / ton and 2440-2520 yuan / ton, respectively. According to monitoring, since August, the overall cumulative increase in the price of common wheat in the main producing areas has generally exceeded 200 yuan / ton.

Since November, as the prices of ordinary wheat have mostly stopped rising and stabilized, the prices of high-quality strong gluten wheat in the main producing areas have also remained basically stable. At present, the purchase price of medium high quality wheat of Gaoyou 2018 in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province is 2700 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; the purchase price of Zhengmai 366 medium quality wheat in Yanjin area of Henan Province is 2560 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; and the purchase price of Shiyou 02-1 medium quality wheat in Dezhou area of Shandong Province is 2680 yuan / ton, which is stable on a weekly basis.

Recently, due to the stable price of wheat in North China, the price of corn (1564,-4.00,-0.26%) has risen in some areas, and the price of corn and wheat has risen slightly. At present, the price of corn and wheat is 0.72 in Shandong, basically the same as last week, 0.66 in Hebei, up 0.01 from last week, and 0.73 in Henan, up 0.01 from last week.

The ex-factory price of flour is stable, and the rising trend of wheat bran is particularly eye-catching.

Due to the recent stabilization of high wheat prices and the difficulties in purchasing raw grain, the operating rate of milling enterprises has basically maintained a low position. Judging from the start-up situation of different enterprises, the start-up of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable, while the start-up rate of small enterprises has dropped significantly or even stopped. According to monitoring, the current average operating rate of milling enterprises is 47%, which is 7 percentage points lower than that at the end of September.

On November 18, the ex-factory price of special flour in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province is 3100-3160 yuan / ton, that of Dezhou area of Shandong Province is 3060-3160 yuan / ton, that of Zhoukou area of Henan Province is 3060-3120 yuan / ton, that of Xuzhou area of Jiangsu Province is 3040-3100 yuan / ton, that of Suzhou area of Anhui Province is 3060-3120 yuan / ton, the weekly ratio is basically flat. According to monitoring, after the overall decline of 40-80 yuan per ton in July, the overall price of flour in the producing areas has rebounded by more than 140 yuan per ton since August, but it is still lower than the increase in wheat prices.

Due to the low operating rate of milling enterprises, the limited supply of wheat bran, coupled with the cooler weather and longer storage time, the recent rise in wheat bran prices is "eye-catching", rising again and again. The current ex-factory price of wheat bran in Hebei Shijiazhuang area is 1500 yuan / ton, Shandong Linyi area wheat bran factory price is 1560 yuan / ton, Henan Zhoukou area wheat bran ex-factory price is 1520 yuan / ton, Anhui Suzhou Tangshan area wheat bran ex-factory price is 1560 yuan / ton, the weekly price has increased 20 RMB40 / ton, compared with the price at the beginning of the month increased by 80Rue 120 yuan / ton.

Although the current wheat flour market still shows a pattern of "strong wheat and weak wheat", the recent rise in wheat bran prices has basically balanced the processing profits of flour mills. Monitoring shows that at present, the theoretical processing profit of milling enterprises in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province is-27 yuan / ton, Jinan area of Shandong Province is 6 yuan / ton, and Zhengzhou area of Henan Province is 63 yuan / ton, with an average of 14 yuan / ton in the three places, an increase of 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. the average profit at the beginning of the month increased by 48 yuan / ton.

Wheat auction transactions are on the rise as a whole

On November 15, a total of 2.6093 million tons of wheat were put in, with an actual turnover of 206200 tons, an increase of 16500 tons over last week; the transaction rate was 7.9 percent, 0.72 percent higher than last week; and the average transaction price was 2506 yuan per ton, higher than the average transaction price of 2500 yuan per ton last week.

On November 16, a total of 67000 tons of soft red winter wheat of Mei No. 2 were put into auction in 2013, with an actual turnover of 25600 tons, a decrease of 16300 tons on a weekly basis; the turnover rate was 37.64 percent, down 15.94 percent per week; and the average transaction price was 2505 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan per ton from the previous week.

On November 18, Jiangsu Changzhou Grain and Oil Storage and Transportation Company sold all 3939 tons of red wheat produced in 2015 through competitive bidding, with a starting price of 2420 yuan / ton, a maximum transaction price of 2600 yuan / ton, a minimum transaction price of 2545 yuan / ton, and an average transaction price of 2577.23 yuan / ton. The auction competition is fierce, and the highest premium is 180 yuan / ton. It is reported that since November 22, Jiangsu Province has also begun to routinely put in 2015 wheat, and it is estimated that the tight market pattern of supply and demand in the market will gradually ease.

Since the beginning of November, the number of wheat has increased, although the transaction volume fluctuates greatly on a weekly basis, and the inter-regional trading situation is also different, but the overall trading is still active. The transaction rates from November 1 to 15 were 16.68%, 7.18% and 7.9% respectively, which is not too much to describe the bidding market which has been in the doldrums since the second half of last year. As the wheat market price continues to rise, the price in the main producing areas has reached or even exceeded the auction procurement cost, and the price of new and old wheat has basically been in line with the situation of a substantial increase in concentrated purchase volume this year and a relatively tight supply of food in circulation in the market. the focus of wheat procurement in milling enterprises will gradually shift to auctions.

Wheat prices have entered the stage of rest and recuperation, and the future market may still be on the strong side.