Garlic market analysis: the possibility of high garlic prices before the Spring Festival is still high.

Garlic, you have made a lot of money by attacking garlic farmers again. Since the beginning of winter, with the drop in temperature, more and more citizens want to eat garlic. However, the 2010 "garlic is ruthless" is still fresh in my mind, and this year "garlic ruthless" is staged again.

Recently, the reporter visited Baiqiao Town, Shanghe County, Jinan City and learned that the wholesale price of garlic is almost one price a day, which has broken through the 14 yuan per kilogram mark. The rise in the price of garlic has made the vegetable baskets of the citizens heavier, but the pockets of garlic farmers have been bulging up.

Since May and June this year, the price of garlic has been rising all the time. What are the reasons for this? How the garlic farmers reacted, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation.

Recently, when many people buy vegetables in the market, they will find that the price of garlic is ridiculously expensive, even more expensive than meat. In some places, the retail price of garlic has exceeded 10 yuan per jin. Some people even joke that "if you can afford dumplings, you can't afford garlic." It is understood that this round of price rise, so that "garlic" swept the market in 2010, six years later made a comeback. As for the reasons for the price rise, industry experts said that it was affected by the weather.

Gas influence garlic production decline, supply reduction is the main factor of price rise, but in the bullish expectation, hot capital speculation also played a role in fuelling the flames.

The price of garlic is the same every day.

Baiqiao Town, Shanghe County, is the only big town in Jinan to reorganize and produce garlic. In previous years, the town was busy with heavy traffic during the garlic harvest season. Bad villagers or cooperatives do not have to go out of the village, some merchants who specialize in collecting garlic take the initiative to inquire about the purchase price, but this year, it is particularly deserted here, and there are few farmers selling garlic in the market.

"the price of garlic has gone up so fast this year, almost one price a day." A member of a garlic growing cooperative in Baiqiao Town said that when fresh garlic was on the market in May, the purchase price was 4 yuan to 5 yuan per kilogram, and the price of dried garlic rose to 9 yuan to 11 yuan per kilogram in June. Since then, the price of garlic has risen all the way up to about 14 yuan per kilogram.

"this round of rally has exceeded the 2009, 2010 market, and more 'ferocious'. Since 2008, the wholesale price of garlic and garlic has been rising from less than 2 yuan per kilogram, and reached its peak in October 2010, in which the wholesale price of garlic once exceeded 12 yuan per kilogram, "he said. but now the wholesale price of garlic has reached about 14 yuan per kilogram, which has exceeded the all-time high.

"this year is the most profitable year for me to grow garlic in so many years, earning 10,000 yuan per mu." Chen Kongrong, a villager from Guanwangmiao Village, Baiqiao Town, said that he planted 17 mu of garlic last year. When he harvested in May this year, dried garlic sold more than 5 yuan per jin, more than double the price of last year. "since July this year, the price of garlic has been rising continuously. The price of garlic coming out of the cold storage is as high as 7 yuan per jin, and once this garlic enters the supermarket, the price can even exceed 10 yuan per jin."

The purchase volume of non-local merchants increased by 15%

In the interview, Chen Kongrong told reporters that when the new garlic went on the market in June this year, a large number of businessmen from Pizhou, Jiangsu Province came to their town to buy garlic. In previous years, some businessmen came to Shanghe to buy garlic seeds, but there were not so many, probably because at the beginning of this year, the cold weather in Jining was relatively serious, and the continuous low temperature caused a large number of garlic seedlings frostbite and reduced garlic production, while our garlic here was less affected by frost injury, so many Pizhou businessmen moved here from Jining.

"the number of acquisitions made by this group of foreign businessmen is about 15% higher than that of last year, and that is, this batch of acquisitions has pushed up the price of garlic. Later, as the stock of garlic decreased, the price became more and more expensive. " Chen Kongrong said that at this time in previous years, there would be a certain amount of garlic in the cold storage in their town, but this year there is almost no garlic in the cold storage.

Why do non-local vendors come to Jinan to buy garlic, and the purchase quantity is increasing? In this regard, industry experts said that the main reason is that garlic production was greatly reduced due to the cold spell at the beginning of the year, resulting in tight supply. Under this background, the shortage of assets led to some speculative funds entering the spot market of garlic, hoarding strange, and artificially causing the price of garlic to rise at this stage.

Garlic prices will remain high before the Spring Festival

The reporter learned from the Internet that in 2015, the planting area of garlic in China was about 6 million mu, with Shandong accounting for nearly 50%. Among them, Jinxiang County, the hometown of garlic in China, 300000 mu around Jinxiang, and 700000 to 750000 mu in Heze area adjacent to Jinxiang. These areas account for 30% of the total garlic planting area in the country.

Also in 2015, due to low garlic prices, garlic acreage in Jinxiang and surrounding areas declined, and the cold wave at the beginning of 2016 led to a sharp reduction in garlic production at the end of 2015 (garlic was planted in October every year and harvested at the end of May). Garlic production in Jinxiang area was reduced by about 20% in 2016. At the same time, the cold wave in other parts of Shandong also led to a reduction in production, resulting in a tight supply of garlic in 2016, leading to the emergence of non-local vendors coming to Jinan to buy garlic.

According to experts, the cold wave in winter in early 2016 and the bad weather in late spring did affect precocious garlic that depends on heaven for food, resulting in a drop in natural production and a drop in garlic stocks. In addition, the continued crackdown on low prices in 2013 and 2014 led many farmers to give up growing garlic, and the planting area of garlic nationwide fell 2.2% in 2015 compared with the same period last year.

"in addition, the cost of planting garlic is also on the rise. according to relevant statistics, the total cost of garlic production per mu in 2016 was 4272 yuan per mu, an increase of 21 percent over the same period last year. And all this makes the price of garlic go up. " The expert said. In addition, with the arrival of winter, the storage cost of garlic has dropped, while new garlic will not be on the market until April or May next year. When the market supply is relatively reduced, garlic farmers and garlic merchants are more willing to sell. Many factors, such as taking advantage of the opportunity to raise prices and hoarding garlic, have kept the price of garlic high this winter. He predicted that the possibility of high garlic prices before the Spring Festival is still high.