Wheat price market analysis: what kind of wheat can increase the price at the end of purchase and sale?

With the continuous reduction of domestic wheat supply, there are few food sources available on the market, and after the State Reserve began to auction wheat in 2015, manufacturers have also adjusted their wheat purchase prices one after another. at present, the mainstream purchase price of wheat with a unit weight of more than 780 is about 1.30 yuan / jin. Now the price of wheat in the market looks calm, and the price seems to be stable, but is this really the case? Won't the price of wheat have a chance to rise? What kind of wheat can go up if the price is to go up? Next, Deng Chenguang, an analyst of China Grain and Oil Information Network, will give you a brief analysis.

I. due to the shortage of raw grain, high-quality wheat can not be harvested.

At this point, the purchase and sale of wheat in the market has officially entered the final stage, especially after the state reserve auction was held at the beginning of this month, the psychology of hoarding and selling grain by traders who still have stocks has been greatly reduced, and after a round of mass exportation, there is basically no wheat circulation in most parts of the country.

Although the purchase and sale of wheat has basically stopped, the demand of manufacturers will not end here. Due to the low stock of wheat in milling enterprises and the slow delivery of flour, the operating rate has also been slightly reduced. In order to ensure their own flour quality, manufacturers need enough high-quality wheat to maintain production, but as far as the current market situation is concerned, the quality of wheat surplus grain is much lower than before, and the manufacturer's purchase price of 1.3 yuan / jin is indeed stable, but most of them are priced according to quality. in other words, there are too few sources of high-quality grain in the market, so the rigid demand for wheat of first-class wheat or even higher quality is still there. With the continuous reduction of high-quality food sources, procurement difficulties are also placed in front of manufacturers, which provides the most powerful support for the price rise of high-quality wheat in the later period.

Second, the State Reserve auction, the purchase cost is really too expensive

Next, let's take a look at the state reserve wheat auction that is now in the limelight. At present, the State Reserve has conducted three wheat auctions in the past 15 years. Except for the first perfect close, the results of the other two sales can only be said to be less than satisfactory.

From the first-class wheat trading results of Hebei and Shandong provinces in the above picture, the turnover rate of the last two wheat auctions fell sharply. Some of the manufacturers participating in the auction reported that they were only buying wheat sold at storage sites closer to the factory. At first glance, the increase in current transportation costs makes manufacturers less enthusiastic about participating in the wheat auction of the State Reserve, but if we look into it deeply, in fact, the purchase cost of the wheat itself of the State Reserve is higher than the upper limit. The author learned from some large manufacturers in Hebei and Shandong that if the auction price of second-class wheat is 1.25 yuan / jin, after including storage fees, management fees and some miscellaneous fees, the outgoing price of wheat will reach 1.28-1.3 yuan / jin, which is only the price out of warehouse. if you want to transport to the factory, you have to increase the transportation cost of about 0.02 yuan / jin. It is true that the quality of wheat produced in 2015 is good, but it is also because of its excellent quality, which puts cost pressure on manufacturers. In the auction held on November 15, the author noticed that the transaction prices of wheat such as Xingtai and Baoding in Hebei Province were on the high side, and the wheat quality in this region was excellent, with the highest transaction price reaching 1.3 yuan / jin. It is not impossible for manufacturers to exceed 1.35 yuan / jin when they get these wheat. Such a high purchasing cost is not what flour mills expect. In the case of unable to change this fact, manufacturers can only reduce the purchase of state wheat reserves as much as possible and continue to pay attention to high quality wheat in the market. In the wheat auction of the State Reserve of Shandong Province, there is a lack of bidding behavior, and the manufacturers basically conclude the transaction with the auction reserve price, which precisely reflects the gradual decline of manufacturers' participation in the auction of the State Reserve. This provides sufficient room to rise in the price of high-quality wheat surplus grain in the later stage of the market.

With sufficient supply, it is difficult for the price of wheat to rise.

So since first-class wheat can go up, can other quality wheat go up? In fact, when I understand the market situation, I also found that at this stage, there are still a small number of employees whose wheat stocks are not sold out, leaving more or less part of the surplus grain, and most of the quality is within the range of second-class grain. And these friends also revealed to the author the difficulties in purchasing wheat from the local flour mill. It is true that the acquisition of wheat is difficult at present, but this does not mean that manufacturers will be in a passive state, and the price of wheat of average quality will certainly rise in the later stage. First of all, wheat of average quality is easily replaced by old grain in grain depots, and the rotation grain in local grain depots is in sufficient supply, and the quality is similar to that of wheat in the market; moreover, although the inventory of manufacturers is small, due to the low opening rate of manufacturers, wheat consumption is at a low ebb, which can basically be used for more than a month. After entering December, the possibility of 15-year wheat auction of state reserves in Henan, Anhui and other provinces has greatly increased, and the number of local rotation grain coming out of the warehouse will also gradually increase. If the exit price is 1.25 yuan per jin, manufacturers can completely turn the purchase of wheat to old grain. In this way, the surplus grain of general market quality will fall into a passive state, and even be bought by manufacturers at a lower price.

To sum up, in the current calm wheat market, in fact, there is a restless heart of high quality wheat. The price of high-quality wheat is still likely to rise in the context of the continuous decline of raw grain. It is initially estimated that for those wheat whose quality can really reach first-class or above, the purchase prices of most domestic manufacturers may rise slowly from late November to December, and stabilize after reaching a peak of 1.35 yuan / jin from the end of December to January next year. As for the second-and third-class wheat, the risk of grain hoarding increases in the later stage, and it should be sold as soon as possible in the near future.