The price of high-quality strong gluten wheat may be undervalued and there is still room to rise.

Since October, due to the greater efforts of the government to collect and store wheat, the circulation of wheat with relatively good quality on the market has decreased. With the arrival of the peak season of wheat consumption, domestic wheat prices are generally higher. But by contrast, the price increase of high-quality strong gluten wheat is small.

The price difference between excellent wheat and ordinary wheat has been narrowing. According to monitoring, as of November 11, the entry price of high-quality strong gluten wheat "Gaoyou 2018" flour mills: 2720 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 2700 yuan / ton in Hengshui, Hebei, 2660 yuan / ton in Heze, Shandong, and 2660 yuan / ton in Xinxiang, Henan. It increased by 500.60 yuan / ton compared with the middle of October. The entry price of high-quality wheat "Zhengmai 366" flour mills is 2630 yuan / ton in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, 2630 yuan / ton in Xinxiang, Henan Province, and 2640 yuan / ton in Heze, Shandong Province, an increase of 60 yuan / ton compared with the middle of October. The entry price of high-quality wheat "Jinan 17" flour mills is 2640 yuan / ton in Heze, 2640 yuan / ton in Weifang, Shandong, and 2640 yuan / ton in Nanjing, Jiangsu, up 60 yuan / ton compared with mid-October. In the same period, the price of ordinary wheat flour mills increased even more, mostly at 100,140 yuan / ton, resulting in a continuous narrowing of the price gap between high-quality wheat and common wheat. Taking the price difference between Zhengmai 366 and common wheat in Zhengzhou as an example, the price difference between Zhengmai 366 and common wheat has narrowed from 220 yuan / ton in early October to 150 yuan / ton now, the lowest level since March 2014.

Most of the imported wheat is strong gluten wheat this year, the wheat disaster areas are mainly concentrated in southern Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other places, which have a great impact on the yield and quality of common wheat, while the producing areas of high quality strong gluten wheat are mainly concentrated in Hebei, Shandong, and northern Henan. These areas are not affected by adverse weather during wheat growth and harvest, so the yield reduction of high quality wheat in China is relatively small.

The state implements the minimum purchase price policy for common wheat. Due to the strong implementation, grain departments at all levels purchase more common wheat than in previous years. After the end of the purchase period, the market circulation of high-quality common wheat decreases sharply, but there is no corresponding purchase policy for high-quality strong gluten wheat.

The import volume of wheat is relatively large. Customs data show that China imported 431800 tons of wheat in September, an increase of 24% over the previous month, and 109% year-on-year increase of 2.86 million tons of imported wheat from January to September, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. Most of the imported wheat is strong gluten wheat, and because the international wheat market price remains low for a long time, the performance-price ratio of imported wheat is higher than that of domestic high-quality strong gluten wheat. It has a certain impact on domestic strong gluten wheat.

The price of common wheat has risen after more than a month of continuous rise in the "ceiling". At present, the entry price of ordinary wheat in flour mills in some parts of the country has reached a high of 1.325 yuan / jin, which is basically the same as the government's weekly minimum purchase price, wheat auction price plus freight and other costs. Due to the minimum purchase price wheat auction quantity, sufficient food supply and stable supply, flour mills are actively bidding. Can meet the market demand for common wheat, so that the rise in the price of common wheat encountered an insurmountable ceiling. In contrast, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat is suspected of being underestimated. At present, the price difference between high-quality wheat and common wheat is too small. With the passage of time and the gradual consumption of high-quality wheat inventory, high-quality wheat still has more room to rise.

There is a large gap between supply and demand of high-quality wheat in China in recent years, although local governments have actively adjusted the planting structure and vigorously promoted the cultivation of high-quality wheat, due to the relatively strict requirements for the growth conditions of high-quality wheat and the high input cost of manpower and material resources, the government has no corresponding support policy for the purchase of high-quality wheat. For a long time, the yield of domestic high-quality wheat has increased slowly, coupled with the lack of special planting, special harvest and special storage in production and acquisition, and the relative deviation in the quality of high-quality strong gluten wheat.

It is estimated that the yield of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China is only 3 million ~ 4.5 million tons. On the other hand, with the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for high-quality special wheat is increasing year by year. It is estimated that the annual demand for high-quality wheat is 5 million ~ 7 million tons, and the gap between annual supply and demand of high-quality wheat is 2 million ~ 3 million tons.

High degree of marketization of high-quality wheat since 2006, the state began to implement the minimum purchase price policy for common wheat, purchasing on a large scale in the wheat centralized listing season, and then selling routinely every week all the year round. this makes the price of domestic common wheat stable within a certain range. However, for high-quality strong gluten wheat, the government has no corresponding purchase and storage policy, which makes strong gluten wheat highly market-oriented and price fluctuating. In 2015, high-quality strong gluten wheat rose to a high of 3000 yuan / ton.

Therefore, although the current price of ordinary wheat tends to be stable due to the continuous dumping of reserves by the government and the large trading volume, there is more room for high-quality wheat to rise because there is no dumping and suppression.

The success of bottoming of international wheat prices is expected to rise although world wheat production is increasing and the USDA's November supply and demand report is still empty, international wheat prices have remained stable at the bottom since the end of August and have risen slightly recently. At present, the price of American wheat has reached the planting cost area, and the room for further decline is limited. The successful bottoming of international wheat prices will raise the cost of China's wheat imports and reduce the impact of imported wheat on domestic wheat prices to a certain extent.

High-quality strong gluten wheat as a high-end use of wheat, should rise with the overall price of wheat, but now the increase is obviously on the low side, the price is suspected of underestimation. Due to the high degree of marketization of high-quality strong gluten wheat, there will be more room to rise in the later stage as the demand is booming and the supply is tight. Flour mills should seize the opportunity and hoard goods properly to avoid the embarrassment of "making bricks without rice" in the future.