Pig price market analysis: can the rising trend of pig prices start a prairie fire?

On November 14, pig prices have also risen for nearly a month. In this month, there is a big difference in pig prices between the north and the south, and the Northeast and North China have risen significantly, becoming the vanguard of driving up pig prices. After entering November, the rising momentum in Northeast and North China has been suspended. according to recent data, there has been an upward trend in East and Central China, so the key to the pig market now is whether the spark of pig prices can start a prairie fire. Can East and Central China lead the country's pig prices to continue to rise?

On November 14, the average price of three yuan outside the country was 16.75 yuan, up 0.02 yuan from the previous month.

According to the trend of this half month, pig prices show a slow upward trend. As of the launch of this article, Pig Yitong data show that the average price of three yuan outside the country is 16.75 yuan, and there is still 0.25 yuan, and the pig price has reached the 17 yuan mark. 17 yuan is right in front of us, but it is difficult to break through. Pig prices have reached 16.5 yuan since November 3, and after ten days, they have risen by 0.25 yuan, which shows that the rate of increase is indeed slow. In terms of ups and downs, there has been a mixed situation in the past half a month. In early November, pig prices fluctuated between-0.01 and 0.06 yuan. However, in the near future, there has been a daily increase of 0.02 yuan for three days. It can be seen that the recent increase has narrowed significantly.

The area of rising pig prices moved southward

On November 14, Tianjin, Hebei, Fujian, Henan and Jiangsu are the main rising areas, concentrated in North, East and Central China. Among them, Tianjin, Hebei and Fujian rose the most, at 0.1 yuan. But for most other regions, most of them remain flat, and the differentiation is still obvious. As far as the north is concerned, the rising trend of the Northeast and North China, which has been rising sharply before, slows down, while the recent performance of the northwest is relatively strong and the rising momentum is more obvious. As of the first line of this draft, the average price of Sanyuan outside Northeast China is 16.8 yuan, that of North China is 16.84 yuan, and that of Northwest China is 16.42 yuan.

As far as the south is concerned, there has been a slight upward trend in East China, Central China and Southwest China, while South China has remained stable. From the pork consumer market, to Jiangsu Tongcheng November 14 news, after the Beginning of Winter, Tongcheng temperature dropped sharply, pig, beef and mutton entered the peak consumption season. At 6: 00 on the 10th, the meat trading area of agricultural logistics was brightly lit and crowded. Butchers, supermarkets and hotel wholesalers from major farmers' markets in the urban area purchased pork, beef and mutton in large quantities here.

Zhang Qianglin, the owner of wholesale and retail meat vendors, said that from 2: 00 a.m. to 6: 00 a.m. every day, butchers in farmers' markets generally come to wholesale to buy white striped meat at a price of 10.2 yuan per 500 grams. From 6: 00 a.m. to 6: 00 p.m., supermarkets and hotel buyers mainly buy divided meat. the price of pork on the 10th is 11 yuan / 500 grams of sandwiched meat, 12.5 yuan / 500 grams of fine pork, 10.5 yuan / 500 grams of pork hoofs, 10 yuan / 500 grams of fan bones and tube bones with meat, and 24 yuan / 500 grams of sub-chops. Pan Jidong, head of the pork trading zone, said pork prices have risen steadily since the Beginning of Winter, up 0.4 yuan per 500g from October and 30 per cent from the same period last month.

Pay attention! Big enterprises live pigs to restore quickly!

We know that the main reason for the current rise in pig prices is that consumption is gradually starting, and the source of pigs is relatively tight, but the shortage of sources of pigs is not due to a large gap in the supply of live pigs, but because most of the live pigs fell sharply from September to October, supporting the current rise in pig prices. In particular, there are more retail investors in Northeast and North China than in the South, which leads to more serious panic among retail investors in the North than in the South, which is also the reason why pig prices in Northeast and North China have risen sharply recently. By contrast, there are more large-scale pig farms in the south, while the pig supply capacity of big pig farms is growing rapidly. Wen, for example, produced 13.82 million pigs from January to October, an increase of 1.5 million over last year, with a range of 12%. And Henan's Muyuan is also a big increase, with 2.33 million pigs from January to October, an increase of 67% over the same period last year!

For the future pig price, many pig friends are optimistic that the reason is due to the growth of consumption, but at the same time, it is not good to ignore the supply side. After a month of slow rise, hurdling has become the strategy of most pig friends. At the same time, with the growth of pig supply in large pig farms, imported meat comes to Hong Kong, once the peak consumption season is approaching, the risk of centralized supply still exists, so pig friends are listed in batches!