2017 egg price analysis and forecast: what will be the trend of the egg market in the year of the Rooster?

According to China Rural Voice China, the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce show that during the Spring Festival in 2017, food prices rose slightly, edible oil and meat prices fluctuated slightly, mainly rising, and the average price of 30 kinds of vegetables also rose 3.9% compared with the pre-festival period, only the price of poultry eggs was basically stable.

It is reported that during the Spring Festival, South Korea fell into an "egg shortage" due to the bird flu epidemic, and egg prices soared by 70%. On the other hand, the price of eggs in China has fallen instead of rising, and the mainstream entry price of eggs across the country has fallen from RMB2.50 to RMB2.60 per jin before the Spring Festival to the current RMB2.12.

In the past, the "rocket eggs" also had the scenery of five or six yuan per jin, but how did they end up in such a field now? How will the egg market develop in the year of the Rooster?

Just after the Spring Festival, the vegetable and fruit market from the lively stock preparation before the year, gradually into the desolation after the year. Among them, egg prices have dropped significantly all over the country. Liu Jianjun, a farmer in Jiadi Village, Xinxi Town, Puyang City, Henan Province, told reporters that he felt that egg prices had dropped significantly in recent days.

Liu Jianjun: just after the Spring Festival these two days, the volume of walking is not too big, the weather is not very good these two days, the number of eggs laid in general, now this price bar continues to decline, years ago or about three yuan, now two yuan more than a jin, not much profit, almost can not hold on. Let's see what happens after a while.

From before the Spring Festival to the present this year, the price of eggs can be said to be all the way down. Liu Jianjun said frankly that if it goes on like this, it will lose money.

Liu Jianjun: the price was about the same at this time last year, and there is a big difference between this year and last year. More than three yuan this time last year. If we go on like this, we will lose money this year, and the cost is not low. I think prices may pick up in the second half of the year.

Not only in Henan, but according to Liu Xu, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, egg prices have fallen compared with the same period last year and last month. On the seventh day of the first lunar month, the average price of eggs is 1.98 yuan / jin in Northeast China, 2 yuan / jin in North China, 2.28 yuan / jin in East China and 2.3 yuan / jin in Central China.

Liu Xu: compared with the seventh day of the twelfth lunar month, North China has the largest decline, 28.47%; compared with the same period last year, Northeast China has the largest decline, 37.62%. The sharp drop in egg prices everywhere is mainly due to the increase in egg production.

According to Liu Xu, egg prices did not pick up during the Spring Festival. On the contrary, egg prices all over the country declined to varying degrees, and retail prices basically remained stable.

Liu Xu: this is because large merchants have promotional activities during the Spring Festival, and farmers' markets are often closed, so the wholesale and retail links in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival are mostly prepared in advance, and the wholesale and retail links during the Spring Festival are dominated by sales inventory and less purchases. therefore, the first-class wholesalers receive less goods, and the exit price of eggs falls.

Egg prices began to decline continuously after entering the twelfth lunar month, and the main reasons for the decline are as follows: first, the early industry is looking forward to the future, and the inventory established is more, and the supply of eggs is relatively sufficient; second, the pre-holiday consumption is not satisfactory, and the concentrated purchase of eggs is reduced after students' holidays and migrant workers return to their hometown.

Liu Xu: most markets are closed during the Spring Festival, but laying hens are still laying eggs, so the stock of farms increases during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the demand of ordinary consumers for chicken, fish and eggs is reduced, and the egg market shows the characteristics of increasing supply and weakening demand, so the egg market is more deserted after the Spring Festival every year.

According to Zhuo Chuang information accounting, at present, the cost of laying hens is basically between 2.6 yuan and 2.8 yuan per jin, while the price of eggs in various places is mostly between 2.1 yuan and 2.5 yuan, so farmers are generally in a state of loss. Although the Lantern Festival is approaching, the stimulating effect on terminal consumption is limited.

Farmers place their hopes in the second half of the year. Can everyone's wishes come true? Analyst Liu Xu expects that the egg exit price below the breeding cost line will continue for some time. As most laying hens are in the loss stage in the first half of the year, the number of laying hens is bound to decrease, and the stock of laying hens is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, so the egg market in the second half of the year may be better than that in the first half of the year.

Liu Xu: most of the farmers in the second half of 2015 and 2016 are in a profitable state, so the enthusiasm of supplementary hurdles is OK. The stock of laying hens increased by 5% in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period last year, and the supply is relatively abundant. In terms of demand, from the Spring Festival to May Day, only the demand for eggs will increase slightly during the school year, and the Lantern Festival and Ching Ming Festival have little effect on the demand for eggs, and spring itself is the off-season for eggs, so the demand is difficult to increase. With the increase in supply and little change in demand, the price of eggs may remain low before May Day this year.