Forecast of Potato Market Price in 2017

Since 2016, China's potato industry has continued to develop steadily. Generally speaking, the planting area of the whole country has increased steadily, the production of some producing areas has been greatly reduced due to the influence of extreme weather and epidemic diseases, and the total output has decreased slightly. The consumption structure of potato has changed slightly; the price has maintained a high level, showing an obvious "N" trend. Potato trade surplus and potato starch trade deficit exist at the same time, showing a double decreasing trend as a whole. It is expected that the agricultural structure adjustment, processing staple food and precise poverty alleviation strategy in the "sickle bend" area in 2017 will further enhance the production and supply capacity of potatoes, while the overall consumer demand will remain stable and slightly increase; as stocks are gradually digested, prices will remain high in the short term, and prices are likely to fluctuate sharply in the second half of the year without serious natural disasters. With the expiration of the "double negative" policy, the uncertainty of international trade of potato starch increases. At the same time, the growth rate of potato supply is much greater than that of consumer demand, the risk of price fluctuations continues to accumulate, and the possibility of difficulties in selling in some areas and individual periods has increased. It is suggested that we should further pay close attention to the changes in the market situation, balanced listing and timely sale of potatoes, and at the same time, do not blindly follow the trend of planting, and reasonably promote grain and potato rotation.

I. Review of Potato Market in 2016

(1) some areas have been seriously affected by disasters, and production has continued to develop steadily on the whole. In recent years, potato production in China has developed rapidly, and the planting patterns of the first cropping areas in the north, the central plains and the second cropping areas in the south and the mixed cropping areas in the southwest have been initially formed. covering most provinces, autonomous regions and cities in China, the perennial planting area is stable at about 85 million mu, and the total output is maintained at more than 90 million tons. Although some areas were severely affected in 2016, potato production in China as a whole continued to develop steadily this year. In terms of planting area, affected by the adjustment of agricultural structure and the operation of high prices this spring, the enthusiasm of potato cultivation across the country has increased significantly, coupled with the acceleration of the adjustment of planting structure and the strategy of precise poverty alleviation in the "sickle bend" area. the planting area in Heilongjiang, Yunnan and Guizhou has increased steadily, and the national planting area is expected to be about 85.26 million mu, an increase of 3.0% over the same period last year. With the continuous improvement of the popularization rate of virus-free seed potato and the level of field management, the yield per unit area of potato has increased steadily. However, the severe occurrence of persistent drought in the main producing areas of northwest and northeast China, large-scale late blight in southwest region and low temperature and cold injury in southern autumn and winter cropping areas have led to a decrease in the average yield per unit area of the whole country. Affected by this, the total potato output for the whole year is expected to be about 92.01 million tons, down 3.0% from the same period last year. (2) sufficient market supply and stable consumption structure. From the point of view of use, potatoes can not only be eaten directly, but also can be used as raw materials for food industry, medical care and other fields. However, from the perspective of consumption, potato consumption in China is dominated by consumption, supplemented by processing consumption, seed consumption, feed consumption and other uses. In 2016, the overall supply of China's potato market is sufficient, and the consumption structure is changing steadily. Affected by the slow recovery of the macro economy, the continuous increase in the return of migrant workers to their hometown, and the reduction in the supply of raw materials in the main processing areas in the north, food consumption has decreased slightly, and processing consumption such as starch has dropped sharply, which is expected to be 55.34 million tons and 7.36 million tons respectively for the whole year, down 2.8% and 13.8% respectively from the same period last year. The increase in farmers' enthusiasm for planting has led to a slight increase in seed consumption, which is expected to reach 3.96 million tons for the whole year, an increase of about 4.3% over the same period last year. At the same time, feed consumption and consumption have been reduced. (3) the price is running at a high level, and the overall trend is "N". This year, the wholesale price of potato in China first rose and then decreased in a "N" trend, and the price level was relatively high. Judging from the monthly changes, the price fluctuation is generally in line with the perennial law, that is, at the beginning of the year, the price continued to rise as it did at the end of last year. After the Spring Festival, due to the shortage of other alternative vegetables caused by the "overlord" late spring cold in this spring, potato prices remained high, reaching an annual high of 3.47 yuan / kg in May, up 53.3% from the same period last year. After that, the price tended to fall back, falling to 1.84 yuan / kg, the lowest price this year, in September. Since October, northern autumn potatoes have been on the market one after another, but Gansu and other places have experienced the most serious continuous high temperature weather in nearly 60 years in summer. Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and southwest regions have also been affected to varying degrees, and the market supply is relatively in short supply. The average price of potatoes has rebounded for three consecutive months, with an average price of 2.35 yuan / kg in December, up 7.9% from the previous month and 15.2% from the same period last year. Judging from the changes in annual prices, the average annual price of potatoes in 2016 was 2.40 yuan / kg, up 13.2 percent from the same period last year, the second highest level in the past five years. (4) the international trade surplus and deficit exist at the same time, affected by the relatively high price of domestic potatoes. This year, the export power of potatoes is insufficient, the export volume has decreased, and the export volume is basically the same; at the same time, with the continuous improvement of the popularization rate, planting technology and processing level of virus-free seed potatoes, the quality of processed products such as potatoes and French fries in China has continued to improve, and potato imports have decreased. According to customs data, the country's cumulative exports from January to November were 396000 tons, down 4.3 percent from the same period last year, exports were 238 million US dollars, up 0.6 percent from the same period last year; imports were 136100 tons, down 2.0 percent from the same period last year, and imports were 165 million US dollars, down 3.7 percent from the same period last year; and the trade surplus was 73 million US dollars, up 10.3 percent from the same period last year. In the same period, the country exported a total of 524.91 tons of potato starch, with exports of US $588600, down 15.3% and 17.7% respectively over the same period last year; imports of 37200 tons and US $28 million, down 38.6% and 35.1% respectively over the same period last year; and the trade deficit was US $27.1574 million, down 35.4% from the same period last year. Exports for the whole year are expected to be about 500000 tons, down 4.2 percent from the same period last year, and imports are about 330000 tons, down 31.5 percent from the same period last year.

II. Prospect of Potato Market in 2017