Will pig prices continue to rise before the year before the gradual formation of a new force in the pig industry?

This year's domestic pig prices can be said to be calm, scary without danger, and basically stable market trend, and the benefits of farmers can be said to be stable, except for the price fluctuations after May Day and National Day holidays. apart from a slight decline in a short period of time, pig prices throughout the year basically maintained a small upward pace. As farmers fill the fence driven by benefits, the national average pig price has slowly and rationally dropped from a high of 9.6 yuan / jin at the beginning of the year to an annual low of 7.5 yuan / jin after the National Day holiday, but this low price does not last long. Only about two weeks, the price ushered in signs of warming again, and continued to the current high price of 9 yuan / jin.

What we have learned from grass-roots farmers and some farms is that at present, the stock of pigs is generally low compared with previous years, and the enthusiasm of farmers is not high because of the early outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in some areas. the reasons for this mentality: first, the current rising pig prices have also spread to the continuous refresh of piglet prices, and the cost of making up fences has increased, and some farmers are worried about buying piglets at high prices. It is feared that the price of live pigs will fall after the year, and the benefits of breeding will be harmed. Second, it is now in winter, and while the cost of breeding is increasing, especially to the north of the Yellow River, it is also the peak season of the epidemic. In order to control the risk, it was safe to fill the fence. Some farmers are cautious or empty.

From the point of view of China's consumption level and consumption habits in recent years, the total consumption of pork has basically maintained a weak growth, where the growth of consumer population slows down and people continue to improve their healthy diet and diet structure. people's consumption of pork also began to refine and began to develop from quantity to quality. From the actual situation of consumption in the current grass-roots market, it is not difficult to see that consumers' demand for the meat quality of pork is constantly increasing. In the past, the kind of pork consumption generally for the purpose of enhancing nutrition and the kind of simple food for improvement no longer exist, but now the most significant is to pick fat and lose weight, and less but refined consumption occupies a dominant position among the majority of consumers. The consistent reaction of grass-roots slaughtering and butcher stalls in the market is that sales are too low. In the past, more than a dozen pigs could be sold a day, but now they may only be able to sell one or more pigs a day. Although there are many people who buy meat, the quantity is pitifully small. Due to the continuous decline in sales, many stall merchants have to adhere to a relatively high pork price in order to maintain their income, so that consumers in many places have been shouting: the price of hairy pig is not high, but pork is not cheap! Under normal circumstances, whenever the eve of China's traditional lunar festival is a peak of pork consumption, pig prices will be actively released in advance, the market and slaughterhouses are actively purchased, and pork prices will also have a quite obvious increase, because consumption is concentrated at this time, it can be said that pork will become indispensable for visiting relatives and friends and entertaining guests and friends, and in recent years, with the gradual improvement of people's living standards. The kind of intimacy to pork is gradually diluted, and what is often left over during banquets is greasy pork. This change in eating habits is deepening the impact on pork consumption year by year, so that in recent years, the market for pork consumption is often not prosperous in the peak season and not light in the off-season. There are few surprises of the so-called consumption peak, and even the increase in sales during the festival is very limited.

What is reflected from the current farmers' psychology is that there is a unanimous consensus that pig prices will rise before this year. Why do you say so? Because pig prices have been rising slightly for nearly a year this year, without excessive price fluctuations, and although the previous two price falls once fell to a loss of 7.5 yuan / jin, but the duration is very short, and then rebounded again and quickly rebounded to a rational price range, maintaining a reasonable space for breeding benefits. The emergence of this market has undoubtedly given the majority of farmers a reassurance, the most direct understanding is that this year's pig stock is not large, then pig prices will really continue to rise as everyone feels before the year? Is there really a shortage of pigs in the market? However, the author does not think so, first, according to the current grass-roots farming situation, although the stock is lower than in previous years, but OK; second, the benefit of slaughtering enterprises is subject to the suppression of imported pork prices is not optimistic, for the acquisition of pigs is not positive. Third, although domestic inflation is on the rise and prices have recently risen a lot, it is obvious that in the context of the decline in the economic environment. This year, the majority of consumers obviously feel that the spending on consumption is somewhat laborious and cautious, and the slowdown in income undoubtedly restricts people's desire for consumption. Therefore, based on the current actual situation, the pig market may have two frequent price fluctuations before the end of the year, but the volatility is limited.

First of all, it is the coming lunar year, when some prudent farmers will sell their fattening pigs in order to get a safe profit, because the operation of experience is the basic rule of many farmers. At the same time, we should also see that the holiday period of the Gregorian calendar is not long, and the driving effect of this festival on the peak of pork consumption is weakening year by year. Therefore, I think that the number of live pigs before the Gregorian calendar will be relatively positive, and there will be a small impact on the current seemingly hot pig market, and the short-term supply in the market is on the loose side. It is expected that the price of live pigs will fall slightly around 0.5 yuan / jin before and after the Lunar New year.

Secondly, after a wave of active hurdling before the Gregorian calendar, the temporary price of pigs will rise and fall back to adjust, farmers will usher in the real peak of pork consumption during the Spring Festival. In view of the current downturn in pork consumption, it is expected that the procurement of the pig market after the 15th day of the 12th lunar month (on the premise of excluding the input of imported pork) may really enter the state, when pig prices may improve slightly, but not as many surprises as expected. According to the balance between the current mainstream market price and imported pork, live pigs can break through 9 yuan / jin even if it is an extravagant hope! According to market understanding, the current pig prices from north to south are 8.5-9.0 yuan / jin in Northeast China, 8.3-8.8 yuan / jin in North China, 8.2-8.7 yuan / jin in the Yangtze River Basin, and 8.3-8.7 yuan / jin in Northwest and Southwest China. According to the differences of consumption habits and listing rhythm between regions, we can feel that the change of pig price is basically a process of transmission from north to south, and it is the northeast market that is about to kick off the consumption. The northeast will enter the consumption peak of stock preparation before the year before the Winter Solstice, and the market consumption time is long, which is in a tight balance between supply and demand from the current stock volume and pig supply in Northeast China. The supply force is not as serious as expected, so once the volume is positive in the near future, there is bound to be a small correction in market prices.

Thirdly, the pig price in North China, South China, East China and Northwest China rose slightly, and the farmers had a heavy psychology of cherishing the sale, and reached a certain psychological expectation on the pig price of 9 yuan per jin. According to the current survival mentality of benefit at the slaughtering level and the adjustment of the purchase price of live pigs, it is obviously not positive enough. In terms of the current actual transaction price, it is difficult for the market to reflect too aggressive prices in the short term. Based on the aggravation of the current psychology of cherishing sales, it can be expected that many farmers may press the column until the lunar calendar year or years ago. if it causes a centralized release of the column, it is bound to form a short-term oversupply and cause slaughtering enterprises to lower prices.

While we expect pig prices to continue to rise for higher benefits, we should also appropriately look forward to the current situation of this industry. Pig prices remain high this year, under the stimulation of the temptation of interests and the state's liberalization of the examination and approval of land for the breeding industry this year. The reserve new force of the pig industry is also gradually taking shape. I visited many places and found that many friends began to enter the industry, and started to spend a lot of money. Although this phenomenon is slightly softer than the atmosphere of the Great Leap forward in previous years, it is a red signal for the industry. It is not difficult for us to imagine that the stock of pigs will continue to rise in the future, the price of piglets will rise, and the price of fattening pigs will be stable and weak gradually. Considering the changes in market trends, the so-called experience in the past can not be used as a measure, but can only be used as a reference, because today's market changes (except for the special price fluctuations caused by major epidemics) are not controlled by laws. but the changes in consumer concepts led by the times and policy-oriented price games at home and abroad are prompting people to re-understand the market. (Tianyu, a special contributor, the article is from the exclusive original of Agricultural products Futures Network.)