China's total grain demand will reach its peak in 2030

According to the method of classified estimation and joint summation of population structure, many factors such as population growth, urbanization and aging are taken into account in the prediction and analysis of total grain demand. The study shows that with the increase of total demand for animal products, feed grain has become the main factor driving the growth of total grain demand. The demand for feed grain reached a peak of 519.71 million tons in 2030, and the corresponding consumption of rations dropped to 198.58 million tons. Under the interaction between the two, the total demand for edible grain (excluding soybean oil and soybean products) will reach a peak of 718.29 million tons.

The total population and its structural characteristics have a decisive impact on the total grain demand. In order to predict the total grain demand, we need to grasp the characteristics of the changes of the future micro-main dietary structure, and further consider the impact of the future total population growth, urban and rural population structure changes, population age structure changes and other factors on the total grain demand. This paper will make use of the existing authoritative forecast results of total population, aging, urbanization and agricultural transfer population, combined with the previous determination of the peak per capita food demand of different groups, and the method of classified estimation and joint summation according to the population structure. the effects of the above-mentioned related factors are systematically integrated, and then the peak value of total grain demand in China is estimated.

Demographic factors affecting the total demand for grain

Population is the key variable that affects the total grain demand, the increase of total population will directly drive the growth of total grain demand, and urbanization, aging and other factors indirectly affect the total grain demand through the change of population structure.

First, the peak population has a decisive impact on the peak demand for total grain. There are many studies on population prediction in China, but with the adjustment of China's fertility policy, many of the forecast results are no longer applicable. According to the estimates of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will appropriately delay the arrival of China's population peak, which is expected to reach a peak of 1.45 billion around 2030, and the total population will gradually decline after 2030 and is expected to drop to 1.38 billion in 2050.

Second, urbanization will promote the overall upgrading of China's dietary structure through the transfer of rural population to cities and towns and the citizenization of migrant workers, thus pushing up the total grain demand.  found the difference in grain and animal products consumption between urban and rural residents earlier in the yellow season. Driven by urbanization, the transfer of rural residents to cities and towns will increase the proportion of animal products in the food consumption structure of residents, and then increase the total grain demand, but at the same time, it may reduce the heat demand due to the decrease of labor intensity after the change of the nature of work, which will have a certain downward impact on the total grain demand. Wulaping's survey shows that because of the high consumption of physical labor, migrant workers have a higher per capita demand for food than urban and rural residents. Li Guoxiang believes that the increase in outdoor meals for urban residents will also push up the total demand for grain. These factors have been taken into account in the previous determination of peak demand per capita for different populations. From the perspective of total demand, we mainly deconstruct the impact of urbanization from two aspects.

On the one hand, the increase in the rate of urbanization brings about changes in the proportion of urban and rural population. In the future, China will continue to promote the development of urbanization. The predicted urbanization rates in 2020, 2025 and 2030 are 61.5%, 65.5% and 70%, respectively. According to the forecast of China's urbanization rate in the next 10 years by the Development Research Center of the State Council, China's urbanization rate will reach 64.77% in 2024. Before 2024, we calculate according to its forecasts, and after 2024, it is assumed that the urbanization rate will grow at a uniform rate of 70% from 2024 to 2030, and China will enter a stable period of urban and rural development when the urbanization rate reaches 70% in 2030, that is, the urbanization rate will be maintained steadily at 70%.

On the other hand, it estimates the number of migrant workers based on the trend and potential of agricultural labor transfer. From the perspective of the transfer of rural labor force, the speed of rural labor transfer has declined in recent years, but with the improvement of agricultural labor productivity, there is still room for further transfer. According to the existing research, according to the estimation of the population that can be supported by the current agricultural production capacity, in order to ensure food self-sufficiency security, the rural labor force that can be transferred in the base period of 2011 is 55.2 million, taking into account the 31.72 million people that have been transferred from 2010 to 2014. The rural labor force that can also be transferred on the basis of ensuring food self-sufficiency rate is 23.48 million. Assuming that the transfer of all rural labor force is completed in 2015, the average annual increase of rural transferred labor force from 2020 to 2020 will be 3.91 million. Then, assuming that the transferred rural labor force is transformed into urban residents at a uniform rate, the rural transferred labor force will be transformed into urban population at an annual rate of 16 million from 2021 to be completely transformed by 2031, thus calculating the number of urban population, rural population and migrant workers in the future.

Third, the aging population will lower the total food demand because of the decline in the energy needs of the elderly. Studies by Zhong Funing and others have found that the age and gender structure of the population will affect the total grain demand. Based on the daily energy intake needs of standard people provided by FAO/WHO/UNU, they calculated the difference coefficients of energy intake requirements of different age groups. The energy intake needs of men aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 years old were only equal to 0.89,0.74,0.70,0.50 of the standard person intake, respectively. The energy intake needs of elderly women are even lower, and the energy intake needs of women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 are only 0.71, 0.64, 0.60, 0.55 and 0.40 of the standard person intake, respectively. Through this coefficient, the food consumption of the elderly population can be adjusted, and combined with the prediction of population aging in China, the impact of aging can be brought into the calculation and analysis of the peak grain demand. The forecast of population aging is based on the research results of the China Development Research Foundation, that is, the number of people over 60 in China will exceed 20% of the total population in 2027, and will account for 28.88% of the total population in 2050.

Peak demand for major grain consumption

According to the inference and analysis of the per capita consumption of major food consumed by urban residents, rural residents and migrant workers in China, combined with the above predicted data on population growth, urban and rural structure and age structure, the total demand for major grain consumption in China in the future can be obtained by classification and summation, and the time and peak value of the peak demand for each food variety can be judged accordingly. The results show that the peak of per capita consumption and population of major livestock and poultry products in China will almost arrive around 2030, and the peak of total demand will also come at this time. Population has a decisive impact on the demand growth of all kinds of food consumption, and the total demand for all kinds of products will have an obvious turning point when the population peak reaches in 2030.

First, the demand for meat will maintain a high growth rate in the future. China's meat consumption reached a peak of 123.44 million tons in 2030, including 73.36 million tons of pork, 37.27 million tons of poultry and 12.81 million tons of beef and mutton. In the future, China's total demand for meat will increase by 31.56 million tons, and will maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 2 percent by 2022, with an annual increase of about 2.4 million tons. With the completion of the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure of urban residents, the average annual growth rate will drop to about 1.6 percent from 2022 to 2030, with an average annual increase of about 1.8 million tons, and will not tend to decline until it reaches a peak in 2030.

Second, the total demand for milk and aquatic products will continue to grow rapidly driven by the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure of rural residents. As the current consumption level of milk and aquatic products of rural residents in China is very low, with the gradual transformation of the rural population into urban population and the improvement of rural income and consumption level, there is still huge room for growth in the demand for milk and aquatic products. The total demand will continue to rise rapidly with the improvement of per capita consumption level for a long time. Total demand for milk and aquatic products will peak at the same time as their respective per capita consumption, with a peak of 109.19 million tons for milk in 2047 and 77.84 million tons for aquatic products in 2069. Driven by the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure, China's total demand for milk and aquatic products will increase by 59.91 million tons and 23.38 million tons respectively in the future, and will increase by 3.4 million tons and 1.4 million tons per year before the peak population. The total amount of milk and aquatic products will maintain an average annual growth rate of 6% and 2.5% respectively before the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure of urban residents is completed in 2022, and the demand growth rate will slow down from 2022 to 2030. however, under the influence of the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure of rural residents and population growth, the average annual growth rate will remain at about 4% and 2%, respectively. After 2030, the growth rate will significantly decrease with the decline of the population, but under the role of the further deepening of the transformation and upgrading of the dietary structure of rural residents, it will maintain a low growth rate for a long time.