How to effectively dredge the "dammed Lake" of Grain inventory

A certain grain reserve is the basis of market regulation and huff and puff regulation. At present, the biggest problem of grain reserve or inventory in China is that it is not smooth to get out of the warehouse, the stock is getting larger and larger, and the function of huff and puff adjustment can not be brought into full play. At present, China's grain reserve rate has reached 83.2%, far exceeding the safety reserve level of 17% to 18% set by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

The vast amount of inventory, like a "barrier lake" hanging over the agricultural industry, is a hurdle that can not be bypassed by China's agricultural transformation in any case.

Excess reserves bring three major problems. First, the financial burden is heavy. Excess grain reserves bring various financial burdens, including various subsidies in production, huge storage facilities construction and storage costs in circulation, as well as loss subsidies for grain out of warehouse. excessive production also brings damage to the ecological environment and a decline in production capacity, and financial investment is needed to repair the ecological environment and restore soil fertility. Based on the annual inventory cost of 250 yuan per ton of grain, the inventory of 520 million tons consumes 130 billion yuan a year. This expenditure is not the same as the actual consumption capacity and production capacity formed by subsidies to farmers, and the expenditure on inventory storage is dissipated virtually. Second, the prices of agricultural products have been depressed for a long time. Such a huge amount of inventory, with each clearance, will have a huge impact on the agricultural market, which is actually not conducive to the safety of the agricultural industry in the long run. The third is the hidden danger of quality and safety caused by the difficulty of getting out of the warehouse. With the decline of grain prices and the gradual listing of new grain, the wait-and-see mood of grain enterprises is getting stronger and stronger, the auction turnover is gradually declining, and the probability of aged grain and moldy low-quality grain is greatly increased, which brings hidden dangers to food safety. From this perspective, China is facing the dilemma that the more inventory, the more unsafe it is. Therefore, our country needs to seriously study the problem of grain inventory. First, how much inventory is appropriate. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations sets a safety reserve level of 17% to 18%, which is not safe if it is too high or too low. Considering that China's main selling areas and balance areas have not yet solved the problem of food security, we can add another piece of insurance to the reserve level set by the United Nations and raise it to 30% of the reserve level. If we take into account the central government's extreme importance to food security and geopolitical factors, we will increase double insurance to 40%, that is, 250 million tons of grain. In this way, China's current inventory exceeds this standard by more than twice as much. On the issue of food security, as long as the 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland is well built, the agricultural production capacity is well protected, there are appropriate grain reserves, and coupled with the regulation of the international market, the temporary fluctuation of output is absolutely nothing to be feared. just let the market solve it.

Second, how to go to inventory. Now when it comes to destocking, it is often a subsidy to processing enterprises to promote the processing and transformation of agricultural products. Of course, this approach will have some effects, but the author believes that it is short-term and can not fundamentally solve the problem. This method of promoting processing through subsidies will transmit the surplus state of raw grain to the field of processed products, and lead to the surplus of processed products, so it is a palliative measure. Getting rid of inventory is destined to be a difficult and painful process, which can not be solved by a charge. Basically, it is necessary to control the source and stop entering the warehouse with an open mouth. As mentioned above, the absolute safety level of China's grain inventory is 250 million tons (500 billion jin). If it is rotated every three years, it will be enough for the state treasury to receive 170 billion jin of grain every year. Now we can only appropriately reduce production, change the structure, trade time for space, and gradually digest the excess inventory. Specific measures include: making use of the current favorable opportunity to return farmland to forest and grassland on sloping land, changing the use of poisonous land, good land rotation and fallow, in order to conserve ecology, protect soil fertility, and achieve the goal of reducing yield; change the planting structure, actively develop green, healthy, safe, nutritious and delicious high-quality agricultural products; auction closed operation of aged grain to avoid impact on the market The centralized treatment of low-quality grain that is no longer suitable for consumption and processing is strictly prohibited from entering the market and turning potential losses into clear losses, so as to achieve the goal of clearing at once.

Third, use various means to control imports. In the context of the current huge domestic grain inventory, it is necessary to do everything possible to control grain imports, buy time and environment for domestic grain destocking, and give the domestic market a chance to catch their breath. In terms of import control, we are not without cards to play. For example, the relevant departments can make an issue on the import quota of grain and the rhythm of the issuance of import licenses; the departments of commerce and quality inspection can use some technical means to appropriately restrict the import of sorghum, barley and DDGS; the departments of agriculture and quality inspection can do some articles on the safety testing of genetically modified agricultural products; the commercial department should immediately launch a trade relief investigation, and some industries in China have been damaged to a very serious extent. Customs, public security and other departments should make every effort to crack down on grain smuggling and raise their ideological understanding to the height of protecting the interests of farmers and the safety of the agricultural industry.