How to solve the contradiction of "three highs" of high output and high inventory versus high import of Chinese grain

Recently, the 2016 (fourth) China Food and Food Security Strategy Summit was held in Beijing. At the meeting, referring to the report "China ranked 42nd in the Global Food Security Index in 2015" released by the British Economist, experts pointed out that at present, China's food security situation is basically in good condition. however, the contradictions of high domestic grain production, high grain stocks and large quantities of imported grain still perplex food security. In response to these security threats, we will continue to take measures such as supply-side structural reform and strengthening investment in science and technology in agricultural production to fully ensure China's food security.

The contradiction of "three highs" still exists.

With the upcoming release of grain production data this year, the discussion about China's grain production and security has also begun to increase. In an interview with our reporter, he Weida, director of the Department of Economics and Trade of the School of Management of the University of Science and Technology Beijing, pointed out that at present, society's attention to China's grain problem is more focused on the "three high" issues. that is, the contradiction between high domestic grain output, high grain stocks and large quantities of imported grain, especially the contradiction between high output and high imports, is particularly "eye-catching."

Data show that in terms of output, the country's total grain output in 2015 was 621 million tons, which has exceeded 600 million tons for three consecutive years, and achieved "12 consecutive increases". In terms of inventory, the current corn stock exceeds 250 million tons, seriously exceeding demand. In terms of imports, over the past five years, soybean imports have increased year by year, and the degree of external dependence for five years is as high as 83.8%. In 2015, China imported 81.69 million tons of soybeans, including edible oil and grains, and China imported more than 120 million tons of grain.

He Weida pointed out that the main reason for the problem of "three highs" is also the imbalance in the structure of grain production. For a long time, we have paid more attention to the production of wheat, rice and corn, while soybean production is relatively weak and gradually developed into a deficiency. Moreover, China has a large population, and the demand for food is increasing, which in turn will lead to a gap between production and demand.

Hu Dinghuan, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that grain production costs, land use costs, labor costs, and agricultural material costs are constantly increasing, and grain prices in the international market are already lower than ours. Recently, it is still declining, and the huge gap between domestic grain prices and imported grain prices has also led to an increase in market imports.

The security situation is not optimistic.

Under the impact of the "three high" issues, how on earth should we understand China's food security? He Weida pointed out: first of all, it is necessary to make it clear that China's food security situation is basically still in good condition.At present, China's grain output has achieved "12 consecutive increases", and the grain has been in a state of bumper harvest for a long time. The purchase and inventory of grain are also rising, the market food supply is very adequate, and the grain demand in all aspects has been continuously and reliably guaranteed.

However, basic safety does not mean that we can rest easy, especially given the high degree of external dependence of our products such as soybeans, the structural contradictions of grain production varieties have still not been resolved. At the same time, considering our large population and increasing food demand, this poses no small challenge to our food security. " He Vida said.

Hong Tao, director of the China Food (Agricultural products) Electronic Commerce Research Institute, pointed out that at present, the security situation of China's grain industry is not optimistic: wheat is basically safe or weakly safe; rice is basically safe or weakly safe; corn supply exceeds demand is unsafe. The import rate of edible oil, peanuts and soybeans is too high and unsafe.

A relevant responsible person of the State Grain Administration pointed out: in addition, the fresh water resources of cultivated land, the effective labor force of agriculture, and the bearing capacity of the ecological environment all have rigid constraints on grain production, and such rigid constraints are becoming more and more prominent. it is more difficult to further increase grain production. China's food security will also face the dual challenges of rigid growth of consumption and rigid constraints of production for a long time.

Renewed force of supply-side reform

Despite a series of challenges, China still has the ability to ensure food security. Experts pointed out that at present, China is promoting supply-side structural reform, has also made a lot of efforts on how to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market, and has formed many important ideas and policies. For example, the "separation of three rights" of agricultural cultivated land, which is proposed recently, divides land rights into ownership, contracting rights, and management rights, so as to promote the leading role of moderate scale operation, expand the area of land cultivation, and reduce the cost of grain production. We will increase farmers' income and enthusiasm for growing grain.

Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that in the process of promoting supply-side reform, we should give full play to the role of resource allocation, improve the structure, let supply and demand determine prices, and let prices truly return to the market. guide farmers to adjust agricultural production structure and agricultural product structure according to market demand. It is understood that in recent years, China has made many meaningful attempts. In 2014, the state launched a pilot project to reform the target price of cotton and soybeans in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia. In 2015, the state abolished the temporary storage policy of rapeseed and launched the reform of corn prices.

"in order to continuously improve the ability to deal with the threat of food security, we should continue to do a good job in three aspects: first, the government should further increase its support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers and strengthen financial and financial support; second, under the condition of ensuring adequate production of wheat, rice and corn, appropriately adjust the grain production structure and increase the production of soybeans and other products. The third is to strengthen scientific and technological investment in agriculture and grain production and constantly improve grain productivity. " He Vida said.