Unpredictable garlic: you can earn 3000 a ton this year and lose money next year.

The elusive "garlic is ruthless": "Bull this year, bear next year"

The total output of new garlic in China in 2015 was about 4.5 million tons. This mass is easy to be manipulated by funds.

The state can regulate oil prices, but it is difficult to regulate the price of garlic. The price of garlic is like a lion; if it is frazzled, it is not as good as a sheep.

A long-time garlic businessman in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province told reporters a few days ago: it is true that garlic is a "white tiger".

The price of garlic reached an all-time high this year. In Jinxiang, the world's largest garlic distribution center, the lowest wholesale price around 2013 is only about 0.6 yuan per jin, and this year's price has reached more than 6 yuan.

It's a cow this year, but it could be a bear next year. The price of garlic is so volatile.

You can earn 3000 yuan by storing a ton of garlic.

Price monitoring released by the Jinan Price Bureau on October 31 shows that on October 27, the average price of garlic in 10 farmers' markets in Jinan was 7.95 yuan per jin, up 3.92 percent from last week, 7.43 percent from the same period last month, and 89.28 percent from the same period last year.

The price is about to double, and the enthusiasm of garlic merchants is running high. When interviewed by the reporter, Mr. Wang was "collecting garlic" in Yucheng Town, Yutai County, Jining City, Shandong Province. His "business" this time is to organize the garlic storage in the small cold storage into the large cold storage.

He told our reporter that the garlic market is particularly good this year. From the purchase price of 4 yuan per jin of fresh garlic to more than 6 yuan of garlic in the cold storage, you can earn 3000 yuan per ton.

The reporter learned that the storage of garlic in Jinxiang County this year is about 1.8 million tons. If the market continues, garlic merchants storing garlic in Jinxiang will have a "floating profit" of about 5.4 billion yuan this year.

But this is only a theoretical estimate. Because of the price of garlic, even people in the industry are betting. You can make tens of millions this year, but it is common to lose tens of millions next year.

The rise in the price of garlic this year has been seen in the spring. A garlic businessman in Jinxiang told reporters earlier that his cold storage capacity was 7000 tons, and he had made a total profit of nearly 10 million yuan from the garlic harvest last year to the garlic clearance this year. 'it seems that the rise in garlic prices this year is a trend,'he said at the time.

At that time, his reason was that the total garlic production would decrease this year because of the weather, and the price was expected to rise.

Half a year later, Mr. Wang told reporters that the fundamental reason for the rise in garlic prices this year is the decrease in total output.

"A heavy snow before the Spring Festival in 2016 is the key to the rise of garlic this year. Coupled with the extremely cold and unstable weather in winter, the production of new garlic has been greatly reduced, and the long-lost wheel of the bull market has rolled in. Again and again crushed the rise in the small-scale adjustment and all the resistance, the market is still in the rising channel." Xu Benhe, a researcher of Jinxiang garlic and pepper international trading market, told reporters.

However, some people told reporters that as a condiment, the total demand for garlic is not very high, and the output is limited. In 2015, for example, the total output of new garlic in China was about 4.5 million tons (about 4.6 million tons). This mass is easy to be manipulated by funds.

At the same time, considering that China accounts for more than 80% of global garlic exports, coupled with the current high domestic prices, garlic enthusiasts around the world are no longer as high as Chinese garlic. China's garlic exports are at a four-year low, according to commodity data firm Mintec. In the first seven months of this year, fresh garlic exports fell 12 per cent to 895000 tons.

An upward and downward trend.

Xu Benhe combed the price trend of garlic in recent years.

In 2010, the price of Jinxiang local acquisition soared to more than 6 yuan per jin, while the lowest price in July in the second year (2011) was 0.7 yuan per catty, he said.

Then in 2012, the price of garlic ushered in a high point: generally, April to June is the new garlic market period, when the garlic just gouged out is 1.2 yuan / jin, with the news of production reduction spread and recognized, the price soared at the rate of a few cents a day, has risen to more than 4 yuan in late June, the market trading is almost stagnant, showing a price without a market abnormal situation.

"at that time, although there were large investors with old garlic who spent more than NT $100 million to prop up the market, the market was stuck for a period of time, followed by a long bear road that lasted for a whole year. In the end, the fate of Ku garlic was a few cents per jin." Xu Benhe said.

The short life of the bull market in 2012 has something to do with the excess surplus of old garlic, the rapid rise of the market and the lack of market support.

Xu Benhe analyzed: "the planting area of garlic in 2012 is smaller than that in 2016." It's just that in terms of total consumption, this year is bigger than 2012. Garlic consumption data in recent years show that when prices are relatively stable, the total annual garlic consumption is growing at a balanced rate of 5% to 8%. "

According to Xu Benhe's recent market review data, the garlic market returned to its trough in 2013, with an average price of 1.2 yuan per jin in mid-July of that year and 1.6 yuan per jin in mid-July 2014. These two years have been a slight loss or a sufficient year for garlic farmers, and not many have made a profit.

In mid-July 2015, the price of garlic rose to 2.8 yuan per jin, and garlic farmers began to make profits that they had not seen for a long time. In mid-July 2016, the market returned to its all-time high, reaching 5.4 yuan per catty; in early September, it reached as high as 6.15 yuan.

Another reincarnation?

As for next year, "it would be nice to get 2 yuan per jin of garlic next year." That's what Mr. Wang expected.

He has his basis-the planting area of garlic in Jinxiang is estimated to increase by 20% to 30% this year, and the corresponding output will increase synchronously in the absence of major weather changes.

Garlic has been planted this year, the cost of garlic farmers has also increased by 20% to 30% compared with the same period last year, and the planting area has also increased by 20% to 30%.

Mr. Wang said that this is mainly due to the fact that the garlic market is very good this year, and the enthusiasm of garlic farmers to grow garlic has increased, followed by an increase in planting costs.

"garlic seed has risen from about 3 yuan per jin last year to 6 yuan." Mr. Wang said.

However, no one can tell the trend of garlic prices next year. "one of the important factors is to look at the shipment of inventory this year."

Xu Benhe also calculated an account for garlic farmers. "(average per mu) 1000-1540-490-1900-237-5167 yuan. There are still many things that have not been calculated, such as soil preparation, spraying pesticides after the year, the labor cost of foliar fertilizer, the cost of flushing fertilizer after the year, and so on. "

1000 yuan refers to the land contract fee. "now I want to rent more than 50 mu of arable land, but if the soil is slightly better, I can't get down without 1000 yuan."

1540 yuan is for garlic planting, 490 yuan for chemical fertilizer, and 1900 yuan for labor.

The price of garlic has gone up this year, but the cost of labor has not. It will rise again next year. "during the garlic harvest this year, many migrant workers who came to Jinxiang to search for gold were angry because the high price of garlic led to the miscalculation of migrant workers, thinking that as garlic was expensive this year, wages would certainly rise. As a result, too many people came and worked hard for a day, not even earning 200 yuan. It is estimated that the price will return to the original price in the coming year. The total labor cost is 1900 yuan per mu. "

237 yuan, which is other miscellaneous expenses.

Garlic farmers in Jinxiang have had a good harvest this year. According to the reporter's survey this spring, the garlic farmer told the reporter at that time that he planted 7 mu of garlic last year and sold it at a price of about 2.5 yuan per jin (2015). This price was acceptable to him at that time, because the labor cost was about 2300 yuan to 2,400 yuan per mu of garlic, not counting the labor cost. According to the yield of 2500 jin per mu of land, garlic alone had an income of 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per mu. "there is also money for selling garlic stalks."

The garlic he grows can be sold for more than 4 yuan a jin this year. But next year, no one knows.