Establish risk prevention and control measures for industrial stability

In recent years, with the implementation of the new national food security strategy, potato has aroused widespread concern in the society. the development of potato industry has become one of the important choices of major agricultural and rural development strategies, such as agricultural supply-side structural reform and precise poverty alleviation.

Since the 12th five-year Plan, potato production in China has achieved stable development, with the national planting area basically stable at about 85 million mu, with a total output of more than 90 million tons; the annual production capacity of micro-potato has increased year by year, and the application rate of virus-free seed potato has increased year by year; the continuous innovation of potato chips, whole starch and staple food products and other processing industries have injected new vitality into the development of potato industry. However, it is worth paying attention to that China's potato industry is still facing greater natural and market risks, and the latter often has a greater impact on the industry, so we must pay attention to it and speed up the exploration and establishment of effective risk prevention and control measures. in order to ensure the stable and sustainable development of the whole industry.

one

There is uncertainty in the supply of "relying on heaven for a living" in production.

Under the influence of cool potato growth habits, potato cultivation in China is mainly distributed in Northwest China, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Hebei in the north, Heilongjiang in the northeast, Shandong and Henan in the middle and Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan in the southwest. In addition to the central producing areas, most of these areas are poor in soil and water resources, which also forms the situation of "relying on heaven for a living" in potato production, and natural risks bring great uncertainty to production and supply. The author learned from the investigation that this summer, Gansu Dingxi and other places have experienced a long period of high temperature and no rainfall weather rarely seen in history in the past 60 years, and the output in some areas has been reduced by more than 50%, resulting in serious losses in potato production and a significant reduction in market supply.

Compared with natural risk, market risk has more and more influence on the sustainable development of potato industry. Throughout the operation of the potato market in recent years, every sharp fluctuation of price will have a great impact on the development of the industry. Potato prices skyrocketed in 2010 and reached a historical level, resulting in a substantial increase in potato production area in the autumn of that year, which led to the phenomenon of difficult to sell in 2011. Potato is one of the agricultural products with a high degree of marketization in China, and its price formation basically depends on the relationship between supply and demand in the market. For example, the overlord cold in late spring this year caused a shortage of other alternative vegetables. Potato prices remained at a high level in the first half of the year and reached an annual high of 3.47 yuan / kg in May, up 53.3% from a year earlier. In summer, Gansu and other places experienced the most serious continuous high temperature weather in the past 60 years, and Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and southwest regions were also affected to varying degrees, partially offsetting the effect of area expansion and keeping potato prices at a high level in the new season. According to monitoring, the average wholesale price of potatoes nationwide in November was 2.17 yuan / kg, up 14.3 percent from the same period last year, which is at an all-time high.

two

Supply capacity enhancement potential great consumer demand still needs to be deeply excavated

Since 2015, the state has vigorously promoted the staple food strategy of potato processing, and at the same time, as the structural adjustment of the "sickle bend" area and the accurate poverty alleviation strategy in the western poor areas, it is expected that China's potato production area will increase significantly in the future. coupled with the continuous improvement of the popularization rate of virus-free cultivation, irrigation and other water and fertilizer conditions and cold storage cold chain infrastructure, the potato market supply will increase significantly. Correspondingly, the growth of potato consumption demand in China is relatively slow. According to FAO data, fresh food consumption, processing consumption, seed consumption and feed consumption are the main components of potato consumption. Fresh food consumption accounts for about 70%, which is the main part of potato consumption, in which residents' daily consumption is basically stable, although consumption of puffed snack foods and staple food products such as potato chips may increase. However, with the substantial increase in group consumption such as farmers going out to start businesses and migrant workers, it is expected that the overall consumption of food will be reduced to a large extent. Starch production is the main driving force in processing and consumption, but affected by the continuous appreciation of RMB, the slow recovery of domestic macro-economy, the continuous increase in production and circulation costs, and the impact of corn and cassava starch market, potato starch processing may remain in the doldrums. With the continuous development of seed potato enterprises in China, the popularization rate of original seed, primary and secondary virus-free seed potato has been further improved, and seed potato consumption will continue to increase. At the same time, affected by the degree of harvest mechanization and the continuous improvement of production level, the damage rate and commodity rate continue to increase, the proportion of broken sweet potatoes has decreased, and feed raw potatoes may be reduced. Generally speaking, for a period of time in the future, the increase in potato market supply will significantly increase consumer demand, and the risk of sharp price fluctuations will be highlighted. Where is the consumer demand for new potatoes, and how to ensure the basic balance of market supply and demand, effectively prevent and resolve market risks will become an important challenge for the sustainable development of the industry.

three

Speed up the "going out" of potato industry to provide new ideas for industrial development

Therefore, we should focus on several aspects of work. One is to strengthen the information analysis, monitoring and early warning of the whole potato industry chain. Large fluctuations in market supply and demand will inevitably lead to price and production fluctuations, which will have an impact on the development of the industry to a certain extent. Therefore, the information analysis, monitoring and early warning system of the whole potato industry chain should be further improved, the analysis and research of the market supply and demand situation should be strengthened, the information of production, price, supply and demand should be released in time, and the producers and operators should be effectively guided to go on the market in a balanced manner so as to avoid price fluctuations and promote the stable operation of the market.

The second is to innovate risk control tools. Effective management and control of market risk is one of the important contents of the construction of modern market economic system. At present, the reform of the price formation mechanism of agricultural products in China also requires the use of modern risk prevention and control tools to effectively reduce the impact of market fluctuations on the sustainable development of industry and the stable growth of farmers' income. Therefore, on the basis of summarizing the target price insurance of local pilot projects, we should increase the intensity of financial support for agriculture, adjust or increase the proportion of funds for the construction of national and provincial financial price insurance system, explore the establishment of a potato industry development fund with government setting up the stage, enterprises performing and social participation, timely promote the construction of potato futures system, and strengthen the credit preferential policies for processing enterprises to collect and deposit funds during important agricultural seasons. It is necessary to alleviate the situation that the cost of credit is too high and the risk is too high, and effectively enhance the ability to manage and control the risk of industrial development.

The third is to promote advantageous enterprises to speed up "going out." After rapid development in recent years, a number of potato industry enterprises such as seed potato breeding, starch processing and leisure food have grown rapidly, and have come to the fore in the international market competition, providing new ideas for China's potato industry to speed up "going out" and the sustainable development of the industry. The strategic research on "going out" of potato enterprises should be further strengthened, focusing on countries and regions along the "Belt and Road Initiative" route, such as Vietnam, Myanmar, India, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and so on. at the same time, we should increase support for overseas exhibitors, market inspection, export tax rebates and credit support, and vigorously promote superior potato enterprises to speed up overseas market expansion and industrial layout.

The fourth is to strengthen the publicity of public welfare science popularization. The formation of people's consumption habits is not achieved overnight. In the main potato producing areas in China, potato has already entered thousands of households and become a delicacy on the table; but reasonable consumption habits have not yet been formed, especially the consumption potential of urban residents and young people need to be further tapped. Therefore, we should speed up the transformation from the industrial development of emphasizing technology over the market to paying equal attention to both technology and market, and promote the industrial support policy to tilt to the industrial links such as the production of special potato and the cultivation of consumption habits. We should give full play to the joint efforts of scientific research institutes, industry associations, enterprises and institutions, and effectively publicize the healthy eating methods of potato staple food products and snack food through modern information dissemination channels such as television, newspapers, Internet and mobile terminals. Cultivate the new generation of consumer groups and create a good consumer atmosphere.