Attention should be paid to the construction of mutton sheep industry chain

Generally speaking, as the weather turns cold, mutton sales will also usher in the peak season. However, in the national market this winter, mutton prices in many places remain low.

The price of mutton continues to fall, causing some sheep farmers to call themselves losses. for consumers, although depressed prices are beneficial in the short term, some people in the industry have pointed out that farmers' enthusiasm has been frustrated and the development of the industry has been turbulent. In the long run, it's not good for consumers.

What are the reasons for the continued downturn in mutton prices? Is the price of mutton at rock bottom? How can sheep farmers get out of the price "cold winter"? Lee Byung-Yong, a post scientist in the technological system of the national modern mutton sheep industry and a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, expressed his views.

Why is the price of mutton falling?

Looking back at the price of mutton, there is no doubt that the price of mutton has hit a record high from 2013 to 2014, but since 2014, the price of mutton has begun to fall. This decline continues to this day.

According to a set of data on the Internet: on November 13, 2013, the price of mutton in Beijing Yuegezhuang was 52 yuan / kg, the price of mutton in the West City of Chifeng, Inner Mongolia was 56 yuan / kg, and the price of Wuerhe mutton was 65 yuan / kg.

According to the price market on November 20 this year shown by the national agricultural product business information public service platform, the price of mutton in Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural products Wholesale Market is 33.3 yuan / kg, and the price of mutton in the west city of Chifeng, Inner Mongolia is 44 yuan / kg. On November 18 this year, the price of Wuerhe mutton was 42 yuan / kg.

These two sets of data are perhaps the most intuitive illustration.

It is widely believed that the small ruminant epidemic that occurred in the first half of 2014 was the trigger for the decline in mutton prices in 2014. In order to control and eliminate the epidemic situation, the relevant departments have strengthened the supervision of the transportation of live sheep and strictly prohibited the transfer of live sheep from high-risk areas to low-risk areas, resulting in the pressure of live sheep in the main producing areas. After the eradication of the epidemic, sheep under pressure were concentrated on the market, the supply of mutton surged in a short period of time, and prices fell.

However, the epidemic is only the cause of the decline in mutton prices. "the most fundamental reason for the decline in mutton prices is oversupply." Lee Byung-Yong said.

In fact, before the price fell in 2014, mutton prices had been rising for more than a decade, and the number of mutton sheep was also increasing. According to statistics, China produced 4.28 million tons of mutton in 2014. At the same time, the amount of mutton imported is also increasing rapidly. Relevant data show that China imported about 66000 tons of mutton in 2009, doubled to about 120000 tons in 2012, and increased to about 250000 tons in 2013. Lee Byung-Yong said that because most of the imported mutton is sheep, imported mutton has a greater impact on the main producing areas of northern China than in the south, but in terms of quantity, imported mutton does not have much impact on domestic mutton.

While the supply is phased saturated and supply exceeds demand, the demand for mutton has decreased due to the impact of the macro-economic environment and the decline in the purchasing power of the high-end catering industry. The price of mutton fell as supply increased and demand decreased.

To reverse the situation, we should start with the industrial chain.

The slump in the mutton market in recent years has made it not only difficult for sheep farmers to make money, but many of them even lose money.

For example, in recent years, the price of mutton in Inner Mongolia, the main mutton producing area in China, has continued to decline. From 2014 to August 2016, the retail price of mutton in Inner Mongolia dropped from 63.68 yuan / kg to 53.4 yuan / kg, a cumulative decrease of 16.14 percent, while the purchase price of live sheep dropped from 31.24 yuan / kg to 16.38 yuan / kg, a cumulative decrease of 47.57 percent.

Judging from the current market situation, an 8-month-old lamb sells for more than 500 yuan. Due to the dry climate this year, sheep need extra forage in addition to stocking, and forage prices have been rising in recent years. For many sheep farmers, raising sheep is tantamount to losing money, and raising more is equal to more compensation.

Is the price going to fall again? Perhaps this is what sheep farmers are most concerned about at the moment. In Lee Byung-Yong 's view, the trough may have been reached. "the price of mutton has been falling for nearly three years. I personally think that the price of mutton has reached a low point, and then the price will pick up somewhat, but it is impossible to return to a very high price in the next year or two." He said.

According to the analysis of the situation that the price downturn has led to the losses of many sheep farmers in recent years, according to the analysis of industry insiders, meat sheep farming in China is still mainly raised by retail investors, and the breeding methods are extensive, resulting in price fluctuations, sheep farmers are easy to lose money.

Although the price of mutton is low, many slaughtering and processing enterprises are still making a profit. Why is it just a loss for retail investors? It is mainly because there is no industrial organization closely related to the interests of enterprises such as slaughtering and processing. " Lee Byung-Yong analysis.

To change the development status of sheep industry, the whole industry chain may be the key to solve the problem. In fact, many enterprises in the industry have been actively laying out the whole industry chain, extending a traditional business to create a whole industry chain of breeding, slaughtering, processing and sales, so as to improve market competitiveness and anti-risk ability. Lee Byung-Yong also stressed that if farmers want to change the current loss situation, they should also start from the industrial chain. "further measures should be taken from the construction of the industrial chain."