Forecast and Analysis of Future Wheat prices: will Wheat prices rise in 2018?

According to the latest agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture, 92% of the intended planting area of winter wheat has been completed nationwide. At the same time, the wheat that farmers have harvested is also on the market for six consecutive years. Will wheat prices rise in 2018? Here is a look at future wheat price forecasting.

Data show that wheat prices have risen in many parts of the country, making farmers happy. As a result, many farmers began to hesitate to sell, waiting for the high price of the aftermarket.

In mid-November, affected by the imbalance between regional supply and demand, wheat prices in North China continued to rise steadily, while wheat prices in Jiangsu and Anhui remained basically stable. Jiangsu ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Grower Yin Weimin is preparing to sell his wheat recently, and he is satisfied with the price increase.

Yin Weimin: Now it has risen to 1.22 yuan/catty, which is 5 points higher than last year. Everyone thinks this price is very satisfactory. Yesterday I was going to sell wheat, but then I realized that the price was still going up, so I decided to wait two days.

Farmers 'feelings are supported by data. As of November 16, the average trading price of third-class white wheat in the country's main grain and oil wholesale markets was 2515 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan weekly. The national wheat purchase price index for the 42nd period of 2017 was 140.11, up 0.17% on a weekly basis. Zhuochuang Information Analyst Liu Dong:

Liu Dong: Recently, the domestic wheat price has generally maintained a strong trend. Compared with last week, the current price has risen slightly by 0.01-0.02 yuan/catty. Take the wheat purchase price of flour enterprises as an example, Shandong ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Area reference 1.28-1.335 yuan/catty, Hebei ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Area Reference 1.29-1.32 Yuan/Near, Henan ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Regional reference 1.28-1.31 yuan/catty.

Some analysis thinks, Although theoretically the market circulation grain source is better than the previous year, But because farmers are reluctant to sell psychology is strong, Hold grain waiting to sell more, Make wheat stage supply and demand situation appears tight, Main production area wheat price continues high strong operation. Zhuochuang Information Analyst Liu Dong:

Liu Dong: At present, grain merchants buy and sell autumn corn more, farmers are less willing to sell wheat, grain merchants purchase small amount, some hold part of inventory, generally bullish reluctant to sell. The circulation of wheat bulk grain is low, and the market supply and demand remain tight.

But Yin Weimin, a farmer in Jiangsu province, also expressed concern about falling wheat prices.

Yin Weimin: I guess it will go up, but people who have sold wheat today say it may go down.

To this, analyst Liu Dong thinks, At present downstream flour enterprise raw grain cost is relatively high, Profit space is constantly shrinking. At the same time, the market price of flour is difficult to increase, and the operating pressure of manufacturers is increasing. Therefore, in the short term, wheat market prices continue to rise little space.

Liu Dong: At present, it is in the off-season of flour industry, the start-up load of manufacturers is generally low, the demand atmosphere of flour market is still not prosperous, the overall sales pressure of manufacturers is relatively large, and downstream customers mainly purchase according to demand. At present, flour manufacturers have high costs, difficult delivery, high operating pressure, and compressed profit margins. Zhuochuang survey shows that the average operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in the main flour producing areas is 47%, down 1 percentage point compared with last week.

At the same time, the reporter understands, in mid-November, downstream aquaculture demand, livestock breeding has not improved significantly, aquaculture basically ended, bran, secondary flour market demand is not high, will also limit wheat prices continue to rise.

At present, the planting of wheat in the new year is nearing its end everywhere. According to the latest agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture, at present, 92% of the intended planting area of winter wheat has been completed nationwide, and the area is basically stable. At present, most winter wheat in the north is in the stage of trifoliate to tillering, and Huang Huainan ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Most of the Ministry, Jianghuai, Jianghan and Southwest China are in the sowing and emergence period. The proportion of first-class seedlings of winter wheat in China is 23% and that of second-class seedlings is 77%, which is generally close to the same period last year.

Although the state's minimum purchase price for wheat has been lowered, analyst Liu Dong believes that this will not affect farmers 'enthusiasm for wheat planting.

Liu Dong: The main planting area of wheat is North China. Farmers have become accustomed to the rotation mode of corn and wheat. Among the three main grains, the lowest protection price of wheat is the last to be lowered. Compared with corn, the adjustment range of wheat price is not large, and it conforms to market expectations. According to the current price, wheat planting income is naturally considerable. Although the minimum protection price of wheat has been lowered, due to factors such as planting habits and household income structure, it is expected that the change in wheat planting area will be limited and will not affect farmers 'enthusiasm for planting in the future.

Wheat latest market: wheat prices throughout the country flour enterprises mostly stable, individual rise.

Hebei

November 23, Shijiazhuang, Hebei ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) Gaocheng flour mill enterprise wheat purchase price of 1.315 yuan/catty.

November 23, Handan, Hebei ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The wheat purchase price of flour enterprises in Feixiang area is 1.27 yuan/catty.

November 23, Xingtai, Hebei ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The wheat purchase price of regional flour enterprises is 1.3 yuan/catty.

Shandong

November 23, Liaocheng, Shandong ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The wheat purchase price of flour enterprises in Chiping area is 1.315 yuan/catty.

November 23, Qingdao, Shandong ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The purchase price of local wheat in regional flour enterprises is 1.3 yuan/catty.

November 23, Linyi, Shandong ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The wheat purchase price of flour enterprises in Cangshan area is 1.28 yuan/catty.

Henan

November 23, Jiaozuo, Henan ( agricultural land, Commercial residence, Industrial) The wheat purchase price of regional flour enterprises is 1.3 yuan/catty before rain.