Will the high price of 8 yuan still appear in 2017?

Around August, our colleagues' internal communication suddenly found that the market in the second half of the year was not as downward as previously thought, and pig prices would rebound somewhat, exceeding many people's expectations. As we all know, it is the relationship between supply and demand that determines the price of pigs. With the accelerated withdrawal of small and medium-sized retail investors, the production capacity of large-scale pig farms has not yet been fully released, coupled with the serious reproductive barriers of sows in small and medium-sized pig farms, the elimination of sows increased in the first half of the year. After the Golden week, after a half-month consumption trough, pig prices have been rising slowly since mid-late October, during which I have written a number of posts to repeatedly explain the characteristics of the market trend in the second half of this year-slow climbing. In recent days, many netizens have asked me again whether the pig price of 8 yuan will still appear, and today I will write a post to answer many netizens' doubts.

There are three positive factors affecting the supply of live pigs this year:

Environmental demolition: fertile sows are still recovering rapidly in the first half of 2018, but since May, the number of fertile sows has begun to decline again. From April to May, Henan (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land), Shandong (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land), Sichuan (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, Industrial land), Hubei (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land), Hunan (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land) and other major pig-raising provinces A wide range of demolition and maintenance bans have been staged one after another. The demolition accelerated the withdrawal of medium and small pig farms, resulting in a decline in breeding sows compared with the same period last year. The expansion of many large companies and the strictest environmental regulations in history have also extended their pace of production, so that pig production capacity has not continued to recover in the first half of the year.

Reproductive obstacles of sows: the second main factor that promotes the increase of elimination of sows in small and medium-sized pig farms is the actual existence of non-estrus and high return rate of sows. Since the rebound of pig prices in 2015, the breeding pigs of pig breeding enterprises have become more and more popular, many pig breeding enterprises have been out of stock, and the pig breeding market is mixed. However, pig breeding enterprises did not attach importance to breeding during the trough from 2013 to 2015. The introduction of breeding pigs has been seriously degraded a few years ago. As we can see, many pig breeding enterprises have been reintroduced from abroad this year, and there are various reproductive obstacles in sows. This is not an isolated case, but a very common problem, which is another major reason for the increase in sow elimination.

Sharp drop in imports: the third favorable factor should be imported meat. Since the sharp drop in pig prices in May, most imported traders have lost money, imported meat is seriously unsalable, and the amount of imported meat is significantly lower than that of last year, and is expected to be no more than 1.2 million tons for the whole year.

The above three points have a direct impact on pig supply and pork production in the second half of this year. The fact that supply is not rich has been shown since late August. The relationship between supply and demand of live pigs has been in a tight balance. For the sake of their own interests, supply and demand have repeatedly played games. Pig prices have been hovering around 7 yuan, neither rising nor falling sharply. The balance of supply and demand and the game between the two sides will eventually be broken, and pig prices are bound to rise.

Next, pork consumption is propped up.

Since October, everyone has begun to look forward to a rise in pig prices, but more people understand that the premise of rising pig prices is seasonal consumption stimulus, and the slaughtering quantity of enterprises has become an important index to evaluate consumption. according to the monitoring data of Ruiqi data, the slaughtering quantity of slaughtering enterprises in the northern region has increased significantly since late November, while in recent days, the production of bacon in the south has begun one after another, and the slaughtering enterprises in southwest China have increased significantly. Next, it will provide favorable support for pig prices.

For ordinary people, pork prices have a significant impact on their consumption. Pork prices this year have dropped by more than 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the total pork consumption has been saturated, consumption enthusiasm will not decrease, especially in the vast northern areas. A relatively obvious increase in consumption can be seen in the near future.

Recently, pig prices around the country began to rebound, before the Winter Solstice, this slow upward trend will continue. At present, the average price of three yuan outside the country is 14.26 yuan / kg, and the average price of three yuan outside the country has exceeded 15 yuan / kg, while the positive side of consumption is still being blessed. It is expected that there will be a high price of about 8 yuan in late December, but it is difficult for the national average price to exceed 8 yuan. Now, the price of pigs before the Spring Festival is full of uncertainty.

Correct understanding of pig price:

1. The rise and fall of pig prices is the result of a game between supply and demand under a variety of factors, but the main factors we have to grasp are no longer determined by small and medium-sized pig farms, nor are they swordsmen. But large-scale enterprises and large and medium-sized slaughtering enterprises, which is also the transfer of pig price discourse, slaughtering enterprises are no longer a simple price leader, so the market is closer to the real relationship between supply and demand.

2. The number of fertile sows will continue to decline, and the decline of fertile sows is a continuous process. By 2020, China only needs about 30 million fertile sows, and now there is still room for 300 to 4 million sows to decline. The decline of fertile sows is accompanied by the improvement of production performance. Today, we can not only speculate the change of pig price from the change of sow, but also pay attention to the elimination and growth of sow within one year and the change of reproductive level of sow in different seasons.

3. Consumption tends to be saturated and demand growth is slow. With the aging of China's population, the total consumption of pork has become saturated, and the demand for live pigs is becoming more and more saturated. Coupled with the gradual increase in pig weight, we need to establish a new relationship between supply and demand to analyze and predict. The number of columns decreased compared with the same period last year, but that does not mean that the demand can not be met.

Compared with pig prices, I recently pay more attention to upstream raw material prices, due to the impact of environmental protection, feed and veterinary drug prices have entered a soaring phase, premix has risen 500 Melochu 1000 yuan / ton, and the recent vitamin An and other raw materials continue to rise, premix prices may be in recent days, family pig farms still have to face the problem of unavoidable cost rise.