What are the prospects for rice cultivation in 2018?

Looking at the current market situation and rice planting costs, weather factors, diseases and insect pests, is there a protective price for rice (early rice) in 2018? As the 2018 rice market support policy has not yet been announced, so it is difficult to say. At present, the news circulating on the Internet about the cancellation of early indica rice support in 2018 is only the advice of some experts and does not represent national policy. Now for everyone to sort out the relevant content, hoping to bring some help to farmers.

In August, China Grain Industry Association, Cofco Group Co., Ltd., China Grain Reserve Management Corporation, Zhengzhou (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land) grain wholesale market, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, Industrial land) sponsored by the Commodity Exchange Hunan (agricultural land, commercial and residential land, industrial land) at the 18th China Grain Forum hosted by Grain Group Co., Ltd.

Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, suggested in a report on "several issues on the Reform of the Grain acquisition and Storage system" that we should be prepared to adjust the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2018, lowering the minimum purchase price by 0.03 yuan per jin to 1.15 yuan per jin. Since 2018, the policy of minimum purchase price for early indica rice has been suspended, the minimum purchase price for japonica rice has been further reduced by 0.1 yuan to 1.4 yuan, and the middle and late indica rice has been further reduced by 0.06 yuan / jin to 1.3 yuan / jin. In 2019, the price level will be further lowered according to the price adjustment of indica rice and the overall grain supply and demand situation.

Subsequently, the price of wheat to support the market in 2018 announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in October was exactly in line with Dr. Cheng Guoqiang's forecast, so this proposal was rediscovered recently. some of the self-media who do not know the real situation directly reported that the country cancelled the 2018 early rice market support.

Therefore, specific policies have to wait for the release of national policies.

In addition, from a personal point of view, although the policy has not yet been announced, many things are groundless, and since some experts have suggested that it will be cancelled next year, it should be more likely.

In fact, under China's continuous policy of supporting the market for many years, China's grain stocks have been rising year after year. Correspondingly, grain imports are also increasing, and at the same time, the gap in the field of high-end grain and oil consumption is increasing day by day. Although the state has gradually strengthened the control of grain quality in the acquisition, and changed the previous mixed harvest situation, the effect is not obvious. Grain production "heavy quantity rather than quality" has become an iron fence restricting the upgrading of China's grain industry, and a large amount of grain can not get out of the warehouse smoothly, gradually changing from new grain to old grain.

According to data from industry organization Zhuochuang Information, the total amount of rice stocks in China's grain depots reached more than 120 million tons as of August 2017, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand is obvious. Among the minimum purchase prices for rice announced by the state in 2017, early indica rice has been reduced for two consecutive years, and middle and late rice has been reduced for the first time since the policy was implemented 14 years ago. The general trend of rice destocking can not be changed.

How much does it cost to grow one mu of rice?

1. Non-labor cost

Including seed, pesticide, chemical fertilizer and so on.

Cost: about 400 yuan

two。 Labor cost

Field management labor cost

It takes about 1.5 days for leveling seedling field, accelerating germination, sowing and weeding.

Rice fields are ploughed, leveled and ridged for about 1 day

Fertilization, disease and pest control, about 2.5 days

The cost is 500 yuan: 100 yuan per person per day, for a total of 5 days

The cost of harvesting using labor or agricultural machinery

Harvesting cost of agricultural machinery: average 100 yuan per mu

Or

The average cost of manual harvesting is 150-200 yuan per mu.

Excluding labor total cost: 400 yuan / mu; total cost of employment (or agricultural machinery): 1000-1100 yuan / mu

3. What is the profit from implementing the minimum purchase price?

Rice quality is ignored here, and the yield per mu is assumed to be 1000 jin, which is calculated according to the lowest purchase price of early indica rice in 2017, and the income per mu is 1300 yuan.

According to the degree of employment of field management and harvesting, the final income per mu is between 250 yuan and 950 yuan.

In the long run, rice will eventually break away from the coat protected by the national government and adapt to market price changes, so that cheaper rice will not enter the Chinese market. Finally, in the case of the overall improvement of the policy, we should pay more attention to the speed of rice destocking in 2018. If the huge inventory cannot be digested, the road of rice harvest and storage in 2018 is still fraught with difficulties.