Prospect of Rice production situation and Market trend in South China this year

According to the monitoring of the meteorological department, the growth and development of rice is good, but with the excessive rainfall and the continuous migration of overseas insect sources, the occurrence of diseases and insect pests in the southern producing areas is serious, which has a certain adverse impact on the yield and quality of rice in the later stage. At the same time, driven by a sharp rise in the prices of edible oil, pork and other agricultural products, coupled with a partial pick-up in rice demand, domestic rice prices have generally shown a steady upward trend recently. The specific situation is simply analyzed as follows:

I. the situation of New Rice production in South China this year

1. Supported by positive factors, the sown area of rice in the south increased in 2007. Since 2006, the price of rice in southern China has continued to be strong, and some varieties have increased steadily because of yield reduction. For example, the price of late indica rice in some areas has been close to or even higher than that of japonica rice, which makes farmers' mentality of selling grain not active. In addition, in recent years, the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy has provided a strong support for rice prices. This year, the state continues to support market acquisitions in producing areas, and at the same time, it continues to increase subsidies to grain farmers. It is understood that this year, the total amount of state direct subsidies to grain farmers has reached 42.7 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5 billion yuan or 63 percent over the previous year. Supported by this favorable factor, the enthusiasm of farmers in producing areas to grow grain is still high.

two。 Due to the warm winter weather and more rainfall, the situation of diseases and insect pests in rice producing areas is serious. This year, the warm winter weather has caused the number of insect sources in the southern rice region to be higher than in previous years, and the risk of diseases and insect pests has increased. It is understood that due to frequent rainfall, rice planthoppers generally occur in South China, the south-west and the south of the Yangtze River. as of May 30, the serious occurrence area has reached 17.5 million mu, an increase of more than 40 percent over the same period in 2006. Compared with the previous year, the occurrence and migration time of rice planthopper this year is earlier, the peak number is more, and the number is large. Rice planthopper migrated 10 to 15 days earlier than usual in south China, south-west and Jiangnan rice regions. as of May 30, there had been 3 to 4 large-scale migrations in most areas, which was significantly higher than that in the same period in 2006.

II. The trend of rice market in South China tends to be consistent.

1. The market demand for early rice rebounded and prices rose regionally. According to statistics, at the lowest purchase price rice bidding fair organized by the state, the transaction of early rice varieties was good, and the transaction rate and average price were higher than those in the previous period. At the bidding fair held on June 6, the turnover rate of early rice in 2006 reached 68.55%, with an average transaction price of 1474 yuan / ton. The reason for this is, on the one hand, the severe situation of diseases and insect pests in some early rice producing areas this year, which makes the market bearish on the future output, thus increasing procurement efforts; on the other hand, it is also a more direct reason. Recently, the prices of by-products such as fine bran in the southern region have risen significantly, making the demand for early rice market increase relatively obvious. It is understood that because the price of fine bran processed from early rice is relatively high and easy to keep, it is favored by some feed enterprises, which increases the demand of processing enterprises for early rice. However, on the other hand, the increase in market demand for early rice is only an adjustment in the mode of operation of some rice mills, only downstream by-products provide a strong support point, and the rice consumption market in the sales area has not significantly warmed up. In the later stage, with the acceleration of the listing of early rice in the new season, and some farmers will continue to sell their surplus grain, the price is expected to have a certain downward risk.

two。 Restricted by the supply of goods, the market price of middle and late rice continues to be strong. Unlike the supply of early rice, which is basically in the hands of the state, for the middle and late rice that was reduced last year, the number acquired by state-owned collection and storage enterprises accounted for a limited proportion of its output, and most of the output was scattered in farmers' homes. Due to the tight price of goods, farmers generally have the psychology of being reluctant to sell, and the situation of concentrated selling pressure basically does not appear. After nearly half a year of consumption, the stock of middle and late rice continues to decrease, and farmers' psychology of cherishing sales continues unabated. In addition, the middle and late rice as a staple food, the market consumption elasticity is small, which also makes its supply shortage situation aggravating. To this end, the state continues to increase the bidding sales of medium and late rice in temporary reserves in order to alleviate the supply pressure in the market. From the transaction results, the absolute quantity and average price of middle and late indica rice transactions in 2006 showed a steady upward trend, fully reflecting the strong market demand. On June 6, 2006, the lowest purchase price for medium and late indica rice totaled 226200 tons, with a transaction rate of 84.91%, with an average transaction price of 1529 yuan per ton. This transaction volume and transaction rate are higher than last week. At present, there is still time for new rice to be put on the market, and with the gradual consumption of supplies, it is expected that the price of middle and late indica rice will continue to remain strong in the later stage.

3. Consumer demand for rice has picked up somewhat, supporting a slight rise in prices. With the advent of summer, the rice purchased during the Spring Festival has been basically consumed, residents need to replenish the rice inventory, but due to the high temperature, more difficult to keep, so the purchase quantity is relatively small. It is also understood that various localities have entered the "three summers" busy season, and farmers are also purchasing rice and other food supplies to meet the needs of farmers when they are busy. The recovery of the consumer market has, to a certain extent, injected vitality into the sustained and stable rice market, with a relative increase in purchasing and sales activities in the market and a steady and small rise in prices. In addition, during the Dragon Boat Festival, the purchasing psychology of merchants and residents has been enhanced, so that the supply of glutinous rice in the market has gradually decreased, and the price has also shown a firm upward trend, which has also played a certain role in promoting the entire rice market. In addition, after the coming of summer, the surplus grain in the hands of farmers in the producing areas gradually decreases, the supply capacity continues to decline, and the psychology of cherishing the sale becomes stronger. At the same time, the shortage of raw material supply, processing efficiency is still weak, storage costs increase, processing enterprises in production areas start cautiously, most of them are in a state of shutdown or semi-shutdown. Based on the above factors, the arrival of rice in the sales area has decreased. However, after a long period of consumption, the stock of rice in the sales area decreased, coupled with the rise in temperature and frequent rainfall in some parts of the south, which made it difficult to keep rice for a long time, and the phenomenon that rice supply exceeded demand in the region changed, and the phased tight supply and demand pattern began to appear. Supported by this, the ex-factory price of rice in the production area and the selling price in the sales area have risen.

4. National policy will continue to dominate the trend of rice prices in the later stage. At present, the new production areas have been harvested and listed one after another.In order to stabilize farmers' income, protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, and stabilize the overall price level of grain and non-staple food, the state has launched a policy plan for the minimum purchase price of wheat in some major producing provinces, stipulating that the minimum purchase price of wheat this year will not be lower than that of last year. Under the support of the policy, the wheat purchase market in the recent producing areas is relatively stable. Under the circumstances that grain prices have continued to be strong since last year, the state has continued to implement the minimum purchase price policy this year, indicating that the state's macro-control efforts in the grain market are still being strengthened. It is understood that the executive meeting of the State Council and state leaders have stressed that this year will continue to implement the minimum purchase price policy, and not lower than last year. At present, the final policy purchase price of rice has not yet been announced, and the opening price of new rice this year is expected to be higher than that of the same period last year when rice prices are high last year and at present. At present, Zhejiang and other provinces have issued this year's minimum purchase price for early rice, which is higher than that of last year.

5. The cost of grain freight is rising, which supports the price of rice in the sales area. According to the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from April 1, 2007, the railway construction fund for rice, rice and wheat entering the northeast through Shanhaiguan Station will be charged at a standard of 0.012 yuan per ton / km. This move will undoubtedly increase the arrival cost of grain exported in Northeast China and affect the price of domestic grain market to a certain extent. In addition, the load measurement charge is implemented for the supply of road goods in the southern region, which makes the grain freight higher than that in the previous period. Take Lanxi Grain Market in Hunan Province as an example. It used to cost 115,120 yuan per ton to ship rice to Guangzhou. After the road freight charging method was changed, the freight per ton rose to 160,170 yuan, an increase of about 40%. The increase in grain freight costs, on the one hand, leads to increased operating pressure on grain enterprises, which makes the processing and production of rice factories with low operating rates more cautious; at the same time, it also affects the arrival of rice in the marketing area and supports the price of rice.

III. The overall trend of the southern rice market in the future will be stable.

After the differentiation trend in the early stage, the rice market in the south has stabilized as a whole, with slight oscillations in some areas. In the later stage, under the joint influence of national policy, market supply and demand and other factors, it is expected that the overall stable and local oscillation adjustment trend will be maintained. Among them, the supply pressure of early rice market has not been effectively alleviated, and the price is in the bottom-building stage; the supply of middle and late rice market is still tight, and the price will remain high. In the later stage, with the gradual release of supply pressure, rice prices in the south are expected to strengthen steadily. Especially for early rice, with the imminent listing of new rice, the minimum purchase price policy will also provide effective support for its price. In addition, although the rice market price rebounded slightly, but its stage characteristics are more obvious, and the long-term driving force is not strong. Since the beginning of summer, residents' demand for rice has declined relatively, and the enthusiasm of dealers to prepare goods has also decreased. It is expected that the rice market will continue to show a depressed trend in the later stage.