Analysis of current Soybean Price Market and Future trend

Summary: analysis of current soybean price market and trend

Judging from the current market situation, the price of soybeans in China is basically stable between 1.7 and 2.1 yuan per jin, among which the price of soybeans in Northeast China is relatively low, such as Huang-Huai and some soybean producing areas in southern China. Affected by the domestic soybean supply and demand situation this year, soybean prices as a whole open low and go high, and may also have room to rise slightly, but do not hope too much, from the current price, the rising space is also very narrow.

Price of soybean in different places

The purchase price of local soybean in Xi'an Lantian, Shaanxi Province is 2.15 yuan / jin, protein 42, moisture 12.5, Anhui Woyang Shigong new season soybean purchase price is 2.20 yuan / jin, net grain, moisture 14, protein 42-43, Hubei Hanchuan Makou Town Zhonghuang soybean purchase price is 2.00 yuan / jin, Liaoning Dandong local new season granule protein bean purchase price is 1.70-1.75 yuan / jin, moisture 13 The purchase price of soybeans in Baishan City, Liaoyuan, Jilin Province is 1.75 yuan / jin, gross grain, and 1.84 yuan / jin in Binxi Town, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province.

From the point of view of the overall price, the situation of high in the south and low in the north is very obvious, which has a lot to do with the fact that the north of China is the main soybean producing area. The northeast soybean accounts for half of China's soybean output, and the supply is relatively sufficient. While the southern provinces also need northeast soybean to adjust grain, it is not surprising that the above situation occurs.

Soybean supply and demand is tight, there is still room for upside.

As we all know, China is a big importer of soybeans, and according to statistics, 30% of the world's soybeans have flowed into our market. However, as it is difficult for the United States to enter the Chinese market this year, it is inevitable that the supply will be greatly reduced. According to the latest data from Chinese customs, China's soybean imports in September 2018 were 8.012 million tons, down nearly 13% from the previous month. And I'm afraid it will still be difficult to increase soybean imports in the next few months, and according to many media estimates, China's total soybean imports will be reduced by 10 million tons this year. Although China's total soybean production has increased this year, it is still difficult to make up for such a large gap. I am afraid it is inevitable for soybean prices to rise.

Limited uplink space

It should be said that at present, the price of soybeans in China is not low, which is, of course, compared with international soybeans. The current price of imported soybeans is about 3200 yuan per ton, while the price of imported soybeans from the United States is 3600 yuan per ton, that is to say, if the current price of soybeans in China continues to rise, then it will be an inevitable event to import American soybeans to make up for the shortage of domestic soybeans. And this year, due to the frost, the quality of my aunt's northeast soybeans has generally declined, and most of them are mixed with green-grained soybeans. In terms of quality, it is difficult to support excessively high prices.

To sum up, the price of soybeans is actually OK now. If it can reach two yuan per jin, it can also be considered for sale. Of course, based on the supply of soybeans in China this year, it is also a good choice to hold grain and wait for an increase. Moreover, there is really little room for soybean prices to fall this year, and the probability is really not high.