Six major trends of agricultural development in China in the future, among which digital agriculture will be an important tuyere in the next 10 years.

I. Continuous improvement of agricultural industrial system

Land circulation accelerated, and land scale and intensification were further improved.

As of November 2017, China has contracted 1.36 billion mu of cultivated land, 1.11 billion mu of confirmed land and 470 million mu of transferred cultivated land, with a circulation ratio of 34.7%. With the full implementation of the registration and issuance of land rights, the future rural land circulation will also be promoted in an orderly manner. Some experts estimate that the scale of typical farms (bases) in the future will be about 50 mu-200 mu, and the northeast region will be larger, with the scale reaching 1000-2000 mu.

Data as of November 2017

There is no doubt that the moderate scale of land management will be conducive to the standardization, mechanization, modernization and industrialization of agriculture. However, the current high price of land circulation has affected the overall circulation process and effect. How to effectively balance the interests of all parties in the process of land circulation and realize sustainable development is the key to determine the progress of land circulation in the next 10 years.

Agricultural socialization service level will continue to improve

At present, many social service organizations have emerged in the agricultural field, such as Jinfeng Commune launched by Jin Zhengda, MAP (Modern Agricultural Platform) proposed by Sinochem Group, Jiajia You in Henan Province, Meilai Zhonglian, a land trusteeship organization founded by Liu Shi, and small and medium-sized organizations in various places.

Doing agricultural socialization service is the only way to realize agricultural transformation and upgrading. However, the premise is that social service organizations cannot sell dog meat under the guise of "social service". In the name of "social service", they must "sell agricultural materials to earn price difference". They must help agricultural producers make up for their shortcomings and effectively solve their needs and pain points. Socialized service, humble very high opinion, any claim that their model how cattle, how innovative companies, or ignorant fearless, or is a fool king.

Social services, the model is similar, the key is to see how you do, how to implement step by step.

II. Major changes will take place in the main body of production and operation

The absolute majority is still farmers.

The connotation of farmers in the future will undergo major changes. They will be more professional, professional, younger, highly educated, understand agricultural machinery and easily accept new things.

The whole "farmer" group will gradually differentiate: more and more college graduates with agricultural professional background will be engaged in field management; in the future, there will be more and more labor demand for operating agricultural machinery and maintaining agricultural machinery; farmers in the future will understand the market better, and new farmers with Internet thinking will be engaged in agricultural marketing and circulation related work; the older generation will be gradually eliminated or engaged in basic work.

At the same time, professional large households, cooperatives and companies will increase in number and play a more important and practical role. In the north, especially in the northeast, the main body of production and operation will be dominated by professional large households. Cooperatives will become more standardized and solid, in line with the Japanese Agricultural Association. Companies (industrial and commercial capital) going to the countryside will no longer be eager for quick success and instant benefit (eager for quick success and instant benefit will not get good results).

Agtech will become the real "first productive force"

With the gradual disappearance of China's demographic dividend and the difficulty of extensive development under the pressure of resource and environment constraints, agricultural science and technology will become the main driving force and engine for the development of agriculture.

Genetic engineering technology will be widely used in the future. It is only a matter of time before it is opened up.

Products using genetic engineering technology are superior to traditional crops in disease resistance, insect resistance, drought resistance and stress resistance. The use of genetic engineering technology can greatly increase crop yields and improve product quality. If the public in our country can look at this technology more scientifically and rationally, the government will open up the pace of planting genetically modified crops faster.

The popularity of drones in the next 10 years will reach at least 30%, and optimistic estimates are even 100%.

I investigated Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Hunan, Shandong and other places in July and August this year, and found that UAV plant protection has become a spark in rural areas. Although it is a cursory glance, a glimpse of the leopard, but see a leaf to know the autumn, a glimpse can also know the whole leopard. Especially in my hometown Hunan, because it belongs to hilly areas and the fields are scattered, farmers used to rely on backpack sprayers to spray medicine time-consuming and dangerous, but now there is drone plant protection technology, which is really helpful.

Although UAV plant protection still has problems such as pesticide drift, strong wind changing operation trajectory, poor battery life, etc., we have reason to expect that UAV will play a major role in the field of agricultural plant protection in the future. Some experts even optimistically estimate that 100% UAV plant protection can be achieved within 10 years.

Storage facilities and technologies for grain and agricultural products will be developed

According to the introduction of Wang Tao, general manager of Jingdong Agricultural Cloud, there will be more platform companies and technology companies to upgrade and transform the storage logistics facilities in the future, such as Jingdong's cloud warehouse and joint warehouse mode.

Water-saving technologies such as sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation will be vigorously applied

The government advocates saving water and fertilizer. After the vigorous development of facility agriculture in the future, water-saving technologies will be more applied, such as the integration of water and fertilizer. The application of water-saving technology in the future is mainly related to regions and crops. The northeast region will apply more.

Digital agriculture (precision agriculture, smart agriculture, agricultural big data) will become an important direction for future agricultural development

First of all, it needs to be explained that digital agriculture is a collection category, which includes precision agriculture, precision agriculture, smart agriculture, agricultural big data, Internet of Things (IoT) and other concepts.

Liu Shi, chairman of Meilai Zhonglian and former president of Pioneer Seed Industry in China, believes that digital agriculture will be an important tuyere in the next 10 years and become the final solution for the whole industry. Digital agricultural solutions can combine planting models, data models, and the solidification and refinement of traditional experience to make the whole process more efficient and accurate.

I believe that mobile phones and other terminal equipment will become important agricultural tools in the future, big data will become the most important agricultural production materials in the future, digital agricultural solutions will also become the most important productivity, and the production relations that can breed and promote the development of digital agriculture are advanced agricultural production relations!

Spring River warm duck prophet, foreign agricultural giant Monsanto is doing digital agricultural transformation. Monsanto acquired Precision Planting and Climate Corporation in 2012 and 2013 to provide planting planning, fertilization advice and other services to growers in the United States, Brazil, Europe and other regions through Fieldview platform. By 2017, Fieldview platform has served 720 million mu of land and 200 million mu of fee-based service area.

Climate Corporation's Key Digital Partners

IV. Agricultural materials and agricultural machinery system will be reconstructed and optimized

Agricultural materials circulation system will be flattened, but agricultural materials e-commerce has limited role

The change of agricultural production mode and management subject is also forcing the continuous evolution and upgrading of agricultural materials circulation system. Traditional agricultural materials manufacturers and distributors are also seeking transformation from single traders to service providers. For example: Jin Zhengda successively launched Nongshang No.1 and Jinfeng Commune. Nopxin also launched the farmland circle and provided financial services to agricultural materials dealers through agricultural development loans and agricultural Thai finance.

It is inevitable to reduce the level of agricultural materials circulation system, but is it concentrated to provincial agents (or manufacturers) or town (village) dealers? It varies from place to place, from variety to variety, and from agent (dealer) to comprehensive strength. With the continuous improvement of the scale of operators, the town (village)-level dealers can completely bypass the intermediate links and directly connect with provincial agents and even manufacturers, and the town (village)-level agents serve the first line of planting, understand the needs of growers, and provide more relevant and landing service schemes.

However, for some agricultural materials (such as chemical fertilizer) with relatively high standardization degree, with the growth of the scale of operators, operators can directly ask for goods from provincial agents or even manufacturers, and the role of town (village) dealers will be weakened.

As for agricultural materials e-commerce, this circulation form will become an effective supplement, but it is absolutely impossible to replace offline channels. The e-commerce mode is a transaction mode, which cannot or cannot provide accurate and systematic agricultural materials service solutions, and the platform matching mode of agricultural materials e-commerce cannot solve the trust relationship between the supply and demand sides. Agricultural materials are different from daily consumer goods. The key to deciding a deal is trust and service!

Therefore, those who advocate the agricultural materials e-commerce model, either do not understand, or is pretending to be stupid! Agricultural materials e-commerce can only be supplemented and cannot become mainstream.

The modernization of agricultural machinery is constantly improving, and the application of high-end agricultural machinery equipment is becoming more and more widespread.

With the aging of rural areas and the transfer of labor force, agricultural machinery will be needed in the future to increase productivity and reduce labor input; without mechanization, there will not be enough people to engage in agriculture.

In 2016, the comprehensive rate of agricultural machinery farming in China has reached 65.2%, and it is expected to exceed 70% in 2020. From this figure alone, the degree of agricultural mechanization in our country is still acceptable, but the application of high-end agricultural machinery equipment is still insufficient, such as the application of agricultural robots in orchards and tea gardens.

V. Improvement of agricultural product quality and branding degree

From pursuing quantitative change to pursuing qualitative change

The state has made an important conclusion that the current agricultural products are in short supply and oversupply at different stages. It is urgent to promote the reform of agricultural supply side to meet the people's increasing demand for high-quality agricultural products.

In the future, agricultural production (especially cash crops and characteristic agricultural products) will be based on the principle of marketability, the pursuit of safety, health, nutrition and high quality, and the order agriculture as an important carrier to provide agricultural and sideline products with rich varieties, reliable quality and trustworthy brands to mass consumers and urban residents.

Quality improvement of agricultural products

With the application of genetic engineering technology and the concept of sustainable development, agricultural production in the future will reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, thus reducing or eliminating related residues and improving the quality of agricultural products.

Consumers 'increasing demand for high-quality and safe agricultural products will also prompt agricultural producers to pay more and more attention to product quality.

At the same time, with the application of emerging technologies such as blockchain, the transparent traceability system from field to table will be expected to be truly established.

Brand upgrade of agricultural products

In the future, there will be more regional public brands, as well as corporate agricultural brands. With the continuous agglomeration of agricultural sub-industries, it becomes more possible and easy to build regional brands and obtain economies of scale. Enterprises will also pay more attention to achieving product premium through brand cultivation.

The circulation system of agricultural products will be more intelligent

The new retail trend is strong, Ali, Tencent, Jingdong three giants vertical and horizontal, through self-construction, cooperation, investment merger and acquisition and other ways, draw a new retail map, agricultural and sideline products is one of the important chess pieces.

Whether it is the "O2O" that gradually moves away, or the "OMO"(online and offline integration) that replaces the door, the circulation of agricultural products cannot be bypassed online and offline. As for how to effectively combine offline channels and online traffic to maximize synergy, it can only be verified by practice.

VI. The agricultural financial system will be gradually improved

Due to the low comparative benefit of agriculture and the high natural risk and market risk, the traditional financial institutions have insufficient motivation to serve the agricultural field. The added value of primary industry accounts for about 9% of GDP, but the balance of agricultural loans only accounts for about 4% of the balance of loans.

Over the next decade, the agricultural financial system will be gradually improved and the availability of loans to farmers will be improved. At present, the Ministry of Finance has initiated the establishment of the National Agricultural Credit Guarantee Alliance, and promoted the establishment and improvement of credit guarantee systems at provincial, municipal and county levels, while "credit + insurance","insurance + futures" and other modes have also been piloted in various places, and new Internet institutions such as Ant Financial Services, Zhonghe Rural Credit, Jingdong Digital Science and Technology are also contributing to the development of agricultural finance.

Summary: In the next 10 years, major changes will take place in six aspects: agricultural industry system, production and management system, agricultural science and technology, agricultural materials and agricultural machinery system, agricultural product supply side and agricultural finance. Digital agriculture is undoubtedly the biggest development variable. People of insight who want to make great achievements in the agricultural field must learn from it!

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