This year, the double decline of wheat yield and quality in some parts of China will restart the auction to prevent excessive price rise.

It's autumn again, and farmers are planting a new season of wheat, but they can't help but comb through this year's wheat prices to see if they can continue planting wheat and wait until next spring to plant other crops.

End of 2018 wheat centralized acquisition season

According to the latest news from the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau, as of September 30, China's main producing areas in 2018 accumulated wheat purchases of 50.152 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.907 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 30%_this purchase volume also hit a new low in nearly four years.

Recently, the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau also said in an interview with the media that although Hubei, Anhui and other places were affected this year, wheat production and quality declined, but the impact of production reduction on the overall market supply was very limited.

At the same time, the resumption of the national wheat bidding trade at the end of September will help "guarantee market supply and prevent excessive price increases".

After the auction restart, the turnover rate is not high

According to the results of the last two national minimum purchase price wheat transactions, 2 million tons of wheat are put into operation every week, but the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in bidding is not high, the turnover in a single week is only more than 100,000 tons, the turnover rate is less than 10%, and the average transaction price is about 2400 yuan per ton.

This indicates that the current market supply is sufficient after experiencing concentrated acquisition of wheat.

High quality and good price throughout the acquisition market

According to the data monitored by the market, the purchase price of high-quality strong gluten wheat of some enterprises has reached 1.36 yuan/catty and 1.37 yuan/catty this summer. The market purchase price of ordinary wheat (reaching the quality standard) is basically 1.20-1.26 yuan/kg, and high-quality wheat is generally more than 1 cent more expensive than conventional wheat.

However, relatively speaking, at present, the price of wheat exceeding the standard is still concentrated between 1800-2200 yuan/ton, which is not only low in price but also difficult to sell compared with high-quality wheat.

Next week, the country will add 200,000 tons of wheat auction in 2017

It is understood that at present, the national temporary reserve wheat inventory is still about 73 million tons (excluding this year's purchase volume), in the high policy wheat inventory, ordinary wheat occupies an absolute majority.

In addition, due to the low quality of wheat in some areas this year, the state will hold an auction of wheat in 2017 starting next week, with a quantity of 200,000 tons per week, an auction base price of 2410 yuan/ton and a price difference of 40 yuan/ton between adjacent grades.

Imports began to decline significantly

It should be noted that due to the low domestic output, China imports some wheat from Australia, Canada and other countries every year, mainly high-quality varieties for matching use, but in the first eight months of this year, China imported 2.23 million tons of wheat, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 1 million tons.

Specifically, imports fell by 30% year-on-year in June, and wheat imports fell by about 50% in July and August.

From the current market point of view, the general wheat market trend to follow the national auction has not much objection, but the high quality wheat market variables still exist.

Next year, the national wheat market price may continue to decline

As there are still more than 70 million tons of wheat stocks in China, the market generally expects that wheat market purchase prices will continue to fall next year.

There are more market rumors. According to the overall situation of wheat in 2018, it is estimated that the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2019 will be reduced by 0.02~0.03 yuan/catty.

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