It is expected that the price of domestic soybean supply will rise again when the frost hits.

Abstract: the supply of soybeans is affected by frost, and the price is expected to rise.

At present, soybeans in the main soybean producing areas in Northeast China have gradually begun to harvest, but the disasters are wave after wave. On the 9th, affected by cold air, Hulunbuir area suffered frost damage, which affected the maturity of soybeans. For some late-maturing or late-sowing soybeans, these soybeans are in the middle and later stages of grain development, freezing damage led to leaf damage and loss of late photosynthesis. Some media estimate that the reduction in production will reach about 15%. For the weak supply of domestic soybeans, the price is even more bullish! However, Science Xingnong does not think that the price of soybeans can reach 2 yuan this year, or the probability is very small or even does not exist.

It is true that the northeast soybean suffered frost weather this time, and according to the forecast of Inner Mongolia today (11), there will still be rainy weather in some areas, accompanied by strong winds. As far as the recent northeast climate is concerned, it is affected by the impact of cold and warm air, and the precipitation frequency is also much higher. It has a great impact on late-maturing and late-harvesting soybeans.

However, while paying attention to the news, we should also note that at present, China's soybean market is no longer the pattern dominated by China's soybeans. Judging from the soybean production situation in 2017, China's soybeans are only more than 13 million tons, while the imported soybeans reached 95.53 million tons. That is to say, China's soybean market is basically dominated by imported soybeans. From the price point of view, even if China's soybean supply is so scarce, China's soybean price has not skyrocketed, on the contrary, with the increase of international soybean supply, let China's soybean price from the original 2 yuan or more, gradually in line with international standards.

Therefore, from the perspective of the situation this year, due to the impact of the reduction in imported soybeans, the price of soybeans is indeed worth looking forward to. last year, many organizations expected that China's soybean demand this year would fall at about 110 million tons. however, according to the estimates of Chinese media, China's soybean imports this year are about 85 million tons, while the demand for Chinese imported soybeans released by the United States Department of Agriculture the previous day is roughly 94 million tons. From the above aspects, no matter which organization has a full understanding of the shortage of soybean supply in China this year. And this point, at least for now, can not be solved very little.

At present, China's soybean imports have gradually shifted from the United States to Brazil, but after the lack of the United States as a major supplier, China's soybean imports have been greatly affected. This is also a major reason why everyone is optimistic about the higher soybean prices this year.

The reason why the price of soybeans is difficult to climb to 2 yuan this year still comes from imported soybeans from abroad. After imposing tariffs on American soybeans, the price of imported landed soybeans in the United States is 3900 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to 1.90 yuan per jin. If China's domestic soybean price soars to a high price of more than 2 yuan, then domestic grain enterprises will once again turn to purchase American soybeans.

Here is science to promote agriculture, welcome to add attention, with you to grow knowledge.