Will the pig market rise in the later period of this year's twists and turns?

Abstract: the pig market is full of twists and turns, and the increase is limited in the later period.

The price of live pigs has indeed experienced twists and turns this year, and has been falling all the way since the Spring Festival. By the middle of May, the price of live pigs has fallen to the lowest of 4.5 yuan per jin. After the twists and turns in late May and June, pig prices finally climbed out of the trough. If you look at the price trend from May to the present, pig prices are indeed in an upward channel, and this trend will continue in the future, but the price increase will be limited in the short term.

Short-term rising price demand

Recently, the media reported that pig prices in Zhejiang have soared to 18 yuan per kilogram, which can be said to be among the best in China, while Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places have also seen varying degrees of price increases. The price fluctuation in some areas, to a large extent, is affected by African classical swine fever in China, and it is difficult for pigs to move, resulting in a shortage of supply in some areas.

In addition, affected by the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, the demand for pigs is much larger than usual, increasing the supply of the pig market, and not long ago under the influence of African classical swine fever, farmers have chosen to put out the column in advance in order to reduce the risk. Resulting in the current situation of supply vacuum. All these factors have played a strong supporting role in the current rise in pig prices.

Long-term upward momentum of pig prices

Judging from the current pig price, although it has been greatly improved compared with May, the price is still very low. The price of live pigs in many areas of Northeast China is still stable at 5.5 yuan per jin, which can be said to fluctuate near the breeding cost line. We know that according to the law of market value, the current market is in the stage of price rebound, not in the channel of falling price, so although the supply of live pigs in the current market still appears to be too much, the general trend of long-term rebound will not change. after eliminating excess capacity, we will continue to embark on the road of rising prices.

The short-term increase is limited.

One of the main reasons for the sharp drop in pig prices this year is that there is a serious oversupply in the market, and now the supply side can only be said to be slightly alleviated and cannot be completely improved. Pig farming cycle is long, production capacity can not be completely improved in just a few months, received the impact of low pig prices in the first half of the year, many farmers choose to withdraw from the breeding market, however, in terms of the current situation, the supply situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and the Agricultural and Rural newspaper has repeatedly warned. Therefore, I am afraid that the price of live pigs in the future will not change much at least this year.

To sum up, the price of live pigs will rise in the future, but again, if the fundamentals of the market cannot be fundamentally improved, the increase in market prices in the future will be limited. It is also recommended that you breed friends, out of the hurdle in time to avoid loss.

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