Is the rise in pig prices sustainable?

Abstract: there is a regional rise in the pig market, and there is little hope of a large-scale rise.

Recently, there has been a rare continuous rise in pig prices, but today's pig prices are still floating red all the way. Science Xingnong has noticed that the price of pigs in a certain place in Zhejiang has reached 9.8 yuan per jin. At present, pig prices in most parts of the country are basically stable at more than 7.5 yuan per jin. Judging from the current situation, the idea of a sharp rise in pig prices should belong to regional fluctuations, but it is impossible and does not have a general pattern of surge in the whole country. Science Xingnong believes that such a surge does not have sustainability, nor does it have sustainability.

Local supply imbalance

For the recent local rise in pig prices, science believes that the most critical reason is the imbalance of local supply. From the point of view of the recent price rise, it is basically concentrated in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, while in Liaoning, the current pig price has even fallen, and the price in extreme areas is only 5.7 yuan per jin.

From the perspective of the distribution of pig farming in China, the major provinces transferred to live pigs are basically concentrated in the northeast, Henan and Anhui provinces, but they are close to the three regions where pig prices have risen recently: Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang. It's no accident.

Recently, classical swine fever outbreaks have broken out in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu, and pig shipments in these areas are also banned. As a result, there has been a serious shortage of local pig supply in the three coastal areas. It is believed that the lack of pig supply will not last long. The epidemic of classical swine fever in Africa has been gradually brought under control, so the soaring market is not sustainable.

The pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged.

Judging from the current price pattern of live pigs in China, the current pig price in Northeast China is still very low, although it is better than that in mid-May, but in terms of the actual situation, the price fluctuates around 6 yuan in some areas. the situation that is close to the cost line or the fluctuation near the cost line remains the same.

The reason for this situation, on the one hand, shows that it is not easy for pigs to be transported abroad in Northeast China, on the other hand, it also shows that the supply of live pigs has indeed exceeded demand. For this judgment, there are still relevant press conferences from the Ministry of Agriculture and villages, which repeatedly mentioned that the supply pattern of live pigs this year will not change. Now the outbreak of African classical swine fever has made pig transport more difficult and quarantine procedures more stringent. Caused the pig to squeeze. However, for non-epidemic areas, emotional panic also led to farmers more active, pig supply is relatively loose. It can be said that the price increase of live pigs this year is not large compared with that of previous years.

The scientific development of agriculture expects that pig prices will rise further, and in the future, pig prices may gradually fall or fall after the National Day. For farmers, pay attention to guard against risks, avoid expanding the scale of farming, and at the same time take advantage of the situation.

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