Corn is facing three declines this year, but the market is still weak.

This year's corn can not only double drop, yield decline, total yield decline, quality decline! To be precise, it should be said that there are "three drops". The shortage of total corn production will form a strong stimulus for corn prices, but for the current market, corn prices are still difficult to rise. Since May, the temporary reserve has put 8 million tons of corn on the market every week, and this auction policy has continued to this day.

Although the turnover rate of the market has declined, the auction corn is still an effective support for market supply. However, it seems that the temporary storage auction policy still shows no signs of stopping. Up to now, the temporary storage has sold more than 62 million tons of corn this year, far exceeding the auction volume of more than 54 million tons last year. Due to the temporary reserve policy, corn prices may not rise sharply this year, but there is still some room for growth.

Corn is in short supply this year

This year, both the planting area and the yield of corn have declined. After planting, corn has suffered from large-scale drought, and the high temperature and drought of corn recently caused incomplete pollination of corn, which caused strong expectation of yield reduction for corn this year. This year, the corn planting area has decreased by 495,000 hectares, and the estimated output is 211 million tons, a reduction of 3%. Corn supplies will tighten even more this year.

Increased corn demand

Due to the strong de-stocking of the state, corresponding subsidy policies have also been introduced for corn deep processing enterprises to stimulate the growth of corn demand. Secondly, the breeding industry gradually warmed up, stimulating the corn feed processing industry for corn demand increased. According to agency estimates, this year's corn supply shortage may be as high as more than 20 million tons. With the advent of the Mid-Autumn National Day, aquaculture will also enter a small peak period, which is expected to push corn demand up again.

escalation of import duties

After China imposes a 25% tariff on American agricultural products, China's corn and soybean imports will be greatly reduced, among which soybeans will have the greatest impact. It is estimated that soybean imports will decrease by 10 million tons compared with last year. Soybean as one of the main sources of feed, its role may also be supplemented by corn. It is expected to stimulate corn prices upward this year.

To sum up, this year's corn production in the face of many adverse factors, corn prices are expected to form a substantial positive factor, stimulate corn prices upward, but due to the existence of temporary storage this market metronome, corn prices in the future is difficult to rise sharply.

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