Wheat prices are expected to rise slightly in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Surplus grain can be sold at an optional date.

Wheat prices are expected to rise in the third and fourth quarters, but not by much. it is suggested that the sale be carried out in late september or early october. There are several reasons for this.

Wheat price rises the reason analysis with not big after august.

From the beginning of this year to the present, wheat prices have risen from 1.1 yuan to about 1.2 yuan, which is caused by many reasons. The continuous upward trend will not be obvious, and the probability of large increase is not large. A June surge after August is not realistic.

The first reason for this year's wheat price rise is the late spring cold at the beginning of the year and the rain at harvest time, resulting in a slight overall decline in wheat output, among which Henan wheat due to continuous rainy harvest season, the disaster situation is more serious, but the national wheat output decline is not large, continue to maintain at about 120 million tons, market demand is basically stable.

Second, due to the psychological impact of "every disaster will rise" on the market, wheat grain harvest in June experienced a phased grain-grabbing phenomenon at the beginning, and the price rose greatly, but after June, wheat prices began to move towards rationality. there is even a slight drop in the current situation.

Influenced by the reform of the national storage system, in 2014, in order to relieve the pressure of wheat, corn and rice stocks, especially corn stock pressure, the ratio of corn stock-to-sales reached 141% in 16 years, the purchase price of corn temporary storage was lowered in 15 years, the minimum purchase price of rice was lowered in 16 years, and the purchase price of wheat was lowered for the first time at the end of 17 years.

Therefore, in the case of the change of the national collection and storage policy and the gradual integration of domestic wheat prices with the international market, it is unrealistic for wheat prices to rise sharply after August. In addition, since the wheat market supply will continue to maintain sufficient, so wheat prices should not be expected to rise too high.

Wheat price rises steadily reason analysis.

First, the main wheat producing areas in the world suffered disasters of different degrees, resulting in a decline in global wheat output. Although the national minimum price of wheat was set at 115 yuan/100 jin, down 3 yuan from the previous year, the overall wheat supply declined, which is expected to be optimistic about the steady upward trend of wheat prices.

Second, the increase of market demand. With the decrease of temperature, wheat purchase and sales will gradually increase. With the opening of university, Mid-Autumn Festival and the arrival of National Day, terminal consumption will increase, flour market demand will effectively increase, and wheat market demand will also increase.

Analysis of the reasons for the sale in late September and early October.

We have just mentioned that the wheat market demand in the flour market will increase in September, when wheat prices will rise by a small margin. However, the peak price of new wheat this year has reached the expected level, and the market supply and demand are basically balanced, out of consideration of "destocking".

National wheat stocks are expected to be auctioned off in October, a move that could counter the rise in wheat prices. Therefore, it is recommended to sell wheat at the end of September and the beginning of October when there is a slight increase in wheat prices.

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