The decline in the production of new apples is a foregone conclusion this year, but the price of new apples will not rise too much.

With the late spring cold early this year, the emergence of long-term frost and hail, the reduction of apple production in the new season has been confirmed, but the specific figures can be seen by 30%, and some even half of them. Scientific agriculture believes that production will decline somewhat, but it is not practical to affect the sharp rise in prices.

Apple will decline slightly in the short term this year, and it is expected to rise after harvest around September, and the trend of long-term price rise is too big to be optimistic. The reasons are as follows:

Fruit growers are vulnerable groups and have a low say in the price chain.

In many agricultural chains, middlemen like disaster years and do not like bumper harvest years. Why? Because in the case of low apple production and high prices in the hands of consumers, they are the biggest profits, and it is the fruit growers who are hurt. If the apple harvest is down by 30% and the quality of the apple remains the same, the price of the apple on the market is bound to rise a lot this year, but it is good for the fruit growers to rise by 10%. Compared with the 30% decline in output, it must be the fruit farmers who will be hurt. So the trend of Apple's big rise this year is not very realistic.

A large number of fruits are on the market in southern China in summer, and apple stocks tend to stabilize.

With the listing of all kinds of fresh fruits, the prices of all kinds of fruits are lower, and there is a big difference in the taste between refrigerated apples and newly listed apples. With the approach of the apple harvest season, if the cold storage apples are not sold last year, they will not be able to compete with the newly listed apples. Customers will plan to sell stocks according to inventory to welcome a new round of Apple acquisitions. So the price of Apple will have a downward trend in the short term.

In the apple planting army, high-quality apples can remain invincible.

In recent years, the whole country has joined the army of growing apples. by the end of these two years, apples have entered a period of full fruit. the increase in output will undoubtedly cause the relationship between supply and demand of apples to break the original balance, the export of apples is limited and the ability of deep processing is inadequate. low-quality apples are bound to be baptized by the market within 3-5 years.

In the fruit market where cheap fruit hurts farmers and does not have a bumper harvest, we do not have to hope for a bumper harvest, nor do we need to get caught up in the strange circle that prices cannot rise after the disaster. Nowadays, there are many varieties of apples, but what is less is the establishment of professional brands. Fruit farmers, as vulnerable groups, strengthen cooperation, form their own industrialization, competition, and improve apple quality in order to really have a say in the price chain.

The above comes from promoting agriculture through science.