Imported soybeans are beset with difficulties when will the price of soybeans rise in China

With the formal counterattack on trade with the United States in mid-June, a 25% tariff line was imposed on American soybeans! According to the current price of 3400 yuan per ton of American soybeans, after raising the tax rate, the price of American soybeans will exceed that of domestic soybeans in China. There is no doubt that it will deal a great blow to U. S. soybean exports!

According to the "report on supply and demand of China's Agricultural products" released by Mei Xurong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, it is expected that the price of domestic soybeans in China will rise by more than 5%. From the current soybean market in China, although the current soybean price has not increased so much, but the signs of rise have gradually appeared.

However, it is worth noting that after the imposition of tariffs on US soybeans, the volume of US soybean exports not only did not decline but increased by a large margin! According to USDA statistics, U. S. soybean exports increased by 127% to 8 million tons in June.

As we all know, China imported 33 million tons of soybeans from the United States in 2017, accounting for 1/3 of China's total soybean imports and 1/4 of the world's soybean exports! It carries a lot of weight in the market. After China formally imposed tariffs, American soybeans basically disappeared from the Chinese market. So why on earth can the export volume of American soybeans increase instead of falling?

Judging from the news concerned about the scientific development of agriculture, the price of soybeans in the United States declined rapidly after China imposed tariffs, and American soybean farmers even spontaneously raised funds to advertise on major US television stations calling for Trump's normalization of trade between China and the United States.

However, it is precisely because of the decline in the price of American soybeans that American soybeans quickly occupy a leading edge in the international arena. According to statistics, the main buyers of American soybeans in June include the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil and other countries.

What is worth paying attention to is that among these countries that import American soybeans, there are actually two soybean producing countries in the world that rank second and third in soybean production in the world: Brazil and Argentina! According to Argentina, the reason for importing American soybeans is to deal with the reduction in soybean production caused by the great drought in the country.

If Argentina's argument is plausible, Brazil's is not. Brazilian food companies import more than 1 million tons of soybeans from the United States. Brazil itself as an exporter of soybeans, at this juncture today, there is only one way to import American soybeans: import American soybeans to export to China again, to profit from it!

The price of soybeans in the United States is indeed cheaper than that in Brazil, and at a time of trade problems between China and the United States, there are repeated media reports that Brazil has taken advantage of the opportunity to raise the price of soybeans exported to China. Brazil's approach to taking advantage of the danger does not seem very kind!

In 2017, China imported more than 50 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, almost half of the total soybean output in Brazil. At a time when China's soybean imports are blocked, Brazil's move has undoubtedly once again pushed up the cost of China's soybean imports, prompting China's soybean prices to rise again.

From the above point of view, the reason is that the realization of China's voice in international soybean is too low. at present, we can only work hard to revitalize China's soybean industry and improve China's soybean output and quality. only if we have more say in the international soybean trade, can we have more initiative and bargaining power in the future soybean trade.

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