There is a serious oversupply of garlic and it is difficult to reshape the glory in the short term. Garlic planting this autumn needs to be cautious.

Abstract: there is a serious oversupply of garlic, it is difficult to reshape resplendence in the short term, so we should be cautious in planting garlic this autumn.

For garlic farmers this year, it is a terrible loss. A few days ago, the Scientific Development of Agriculture had summed up the farmers who invested in planting garlic this year, and generally speaking, the general loss was about 1300 yuan. In the face of this situation, it is not the time to expand planting recklessly and blindly, what is needed is wise analysis and proper rational layout in order to achieve less loss and more profit.

I have seen netizens say that when they saw the market decline in August last year, they decisively chose to withdraw from garlic planting and cleared all the more than 50 acres of garlic seeds in their hands. This year's garlic market facts have proved how wise and wise his choice was at the beginning. The correct decision is inseparable from the cool-headed analysis at the beginning, and it is still the case today.

For the garlic industry, there has always been an increase of one year and two years, in fact, this is not just a coincidence, if it has been a coincidence, then this coincidence has a certain inevitability, this is also commonly known as the calculation cycle. To investigate the root cause, to a lot of extent, it comes from the asymmetry of information.

On the one hand, the information between farmers and the market is asymmetric. This also directly leads to the trend of farmers at the time of planting, when farmers see the interests, but ignore the risk of the market, the asymmetry between market demand and farmers' planting quantity, leading to the annual change of market supply.

On the other hand, it stems from the information asymmetry between market demand and market supply, which reflects the fluctuation of local garlic price. The quantity of market demand is generally relatively limited, but there is great uncertainty in local market demand, so there is a local oversupply or shortage of garlic in our country.

The above two factors are the factors of garlic market fluctuation, and the asymmetry of farmers' information leads to the price fluctuation between market years. Last year, in fact, the oversupply of garlic has been quite obvious. However, the price of garlic has dropped so much this year, which is beyond my expectation.

When the media reported that the new calculation went public this year, Chen garlic had not yet finished cleaning it up. This is already a serious oversupply. And this year, the market garlic has been unsalable, from the market supply side, garlic sales this year to next year may also be difficult to sell out. In other words, this oversupply situation will continue into next year.

Therefore, Scientific Xingnong believes that while some garlic farmers still insist on growing garlic this year, the overall supply of garlic next year will gradually improve after July and August next year, but the price will remain near the cost price. I'm afraid it's not realistic for garlic farmers to expect a turnaround.

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