Soybean meal futures price is expected to continue weak volatility-soybean meal price

After the domestic soybean meal futures hit a new low in late November, they began to rebound in shock, but the overall trend is still weak and has suffered continuous declines in recent days. As of yesterday's close, the main 1605 contract closed at 2382 yuan / ton, down 16 yuan or 0.67%. Industry insiders said that due to the sharp depreciation of the Argentine exchange rate, farmers began to sell soybeans overseas, and the cost of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong is expected to decline, making forward soybean meal prices under pressure. Looking forward to the future, in the context of the overall supply pressure in the soybean meal market, soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, paying attention to the weather changes in South America and domestic downstream consumption of soybean meal.

Li Xiaoshuang, an analyst at Mel Ya Futures, said that in early December, the Fed raised interest rates and put pressure on commodities as a whole, coupled with the Argentine government's reduction of soybean export tariffs and the deregulation of exchange rate controls. But in the later period, as the drought in South America continued and short sellers covered up, the price of American beans rebounded. However, the weather forecast in recent days says that there will be rain in the main producing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks, and the price of American beans will drop sharply, which will affect the trend of soybean meal in the inner disk to a certain extent, coupled with the large amount of domestic soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in November and December, and the abundant supply of soybean meal.

Spot aspect, the spot price of soybean meal has obvious price psychology, and near the end of the year, the pace of pre-festival stock is also gradually approaching, in this wave of strong rebound, the enthusiasm of soybean meal stock has been quietly heating up. According to Zhuochuang statistics, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 2499 yuan / ton in the first ten days of December and increased to 2508 yuan / ton in the middle of December. The price of soybean meal in late December has now risen to 2560 yuan / ton, up 61 yuan / ton or 2.44% from the first ten days of December, and 3.52% from the price in late November. Soybean meal prices after mid-December showed a continuous upward trend, the range is obvious. At first, traders were still worried about future prices, but after successive increases, market purchasing confidence increased significantly.

Fundamentally, the overall supply pressure of the soybean meal market is greater at present. According to Li Xiaoshuang's analysis, first of all, from the perspective of the international market, American bean exports are still slow. In South America, there was a drought in eastern Brazil, but the weather forecast shows that there will be rain in the next two weeks, and it is expected that South American soybean production will eventually be less affected by the weather. After the reduction of Argentine export tariffs, farmers have not yet sold a large number of goods, and the progress of Argentine soybean exports in the future is the focus of the market. Domestically, according to Chinese customs data, China imported 7.39 million tons of soybeans in November and is expected to reach more than 8.5 million tons in December. The arrival of soybeans to Hong Kong has increased, and the operating rate of oil plants has remained at a high level, with crushing capacity reaching 6.95 million tons in November and is expected to reach 7.15 million tons in December. In addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the rhythm of livestock out of the fence accelerated, the scale of breeding decreased in the later period, and the boost to the demand for soybean meal was limited. However, in late December, feed enterprises began to prepare goods, downstream soybean meal transactions are good, soybean meal inventory has not rebounded significantly. Therefore, the overall supply pressure of soybean meal is greater, but the stock of downstream feed enterprises provides support to the market. "it is expected that the future price of soybean meal will remain volatile, paying attention to the weather changes in South America and the downstream consumption of soybean meal in China."

For the future, Guoxin futures researcher Hou Xueling said that considering that the spot unexecuted contract is high and there is room for increase, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain strong in the future. However, it is difficult for the futures market to be optimistic. after all, the expected export volume of Argentine soybeans is huge, and although the weather is bad in Brazil, it is still difficult to change the situation that output has reached a new high, and the prospect of American bean exports is not optimistic. at present, the global soybean market as a whole is still in a weak pattern, so it is considered that the prospect of soybean meal futures is not optimistic.