Financial factors Resonance pre-festival soybean meal price will rebound-soybean meal price

Recently, due to the dual factors resonance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike boots and the expected strengthening of RMB depreciation, the influx of funds into commodities with huge declines, the main 1605 contract of soybean meal effectively broke through the upper edge of the previous shock range. With the intervention of traders stocking before the holiday, we expect soybean meal to have a strong rebound before the Spring Festival.

Fed rate hikes set the tone for commodity gains. The Fed's interest rate meeting announced the latest decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the new federal funds target rate will remain in the range of 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed's interest rate hike boots have finally landed. Over the past three decades, the United States has experienced five major interest rate hikes. From the experience of these five times, after the US dollar interest rate hike boots land, it usually corresponds to the weakening of the US dollar index, which will bring strong support to the rebound of commodities denominated in US dollars. Soybean meal in commodities will also follow a wave of effective rebound.

RMB depreciation raises import costs expected to strengthen. After the Fed raises interest rates, the strength of the US dollar will become a trend, and non-US dollar currencies will become weaker. In this case, the depreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar will further rise. The traditional view is that RMB depreciation means that we have to spend more money to buy the same commodity in the international community, because the commodity prices with high dependence on imports among domestic bulk commodities will be greatly affected, and the spot prices will be supported to a certain extent due to the increase of import costs. As far as the domestic futures market is concerned, RMB depreciation will directly and indirectly support domestic commodity prices. Among them, the direct aspect is mainly reflected in the fact that most bulk raw materials that need to be imported in large quantities will increase the import cost, while China's soybeans mainly come from overseas imports. If the RMB continues to depreciate at this time, the decline of these commodities may stagnate or slow down. When denominated in RMB at home, the depreciation of the local currency will raise the center of gravity of internal and external price fluctuations, thus supporting the domestic commodity market. In addition, RMB depreciation will be beneficial to domestic processing, manufacturing and other export industries, conducive to the implementation of China's "One Road and One Belt" idea construction, at the same time activate the consumption demand of domestic commodities, and also form a favorable effect on commodity prices.

Domestic soybean meal spot market prices continue to move slowly upward. As of December 21, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Rizhao oil plant in Shandong Province was 2570-2590 yuan/ton, up 10-20 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Tianjin oil plant was 2530 yuan/ton, flat compared with last weekend; the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Qinhuangdao oil plant was 2540 yuan/ton, flat compared with last weekend; The price of 43% protein soybean meal in Lianyungang oil plant in Jiangsu Province is 2640 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Dongguan oil plant in Guangdong Province is 2540-2550 yuan/ton, up 10-30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Fangchenggang oil plant in Guangxi Province is 2460-2520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.