Will the periodic law of garlic market continue this year?

The garlic market is low in 2018, and Scientific Xingnong believes that the garlic market will improve slightly in 2019, but don't be optimistic. If nothing happens, the garlic market in 2019 is only slightly stronger than this year, not to mention a substantial increase. The reason for this judgment is based on the following reasons: 1. Garlic is unsalable in 2018 and there is a serious oversupply. 2. At present, the cold storage is quite complete, and this year's garlic is enough to maintain the market supply of garlic until next year. 3. Farmers' planting area has been reduced, but it is still unable to completely reverse the situation of supply and demand.

Supply exceeds demand in 2018

The oversupply of garlic this year is not just a problem. It has been unsalable since the new garlic went on sale in Southern China in April. However, this situation has not been reversed, and a large part of the reason is that after the sharp rise in garlic prices in 2016, garlic farmers, driven by interests, ignored the factors of market supply and expanded their acreage for years, resulting in a serious oversupply of garlic. On the one hand, it is due to the lack of risk awareness of garlic farmers, and on the other hand, it is due to the lack of information about garlic farmers. This situation will also directly affect the planting area of garlic farmers and the garlic reserves in the cold storage this autumn.

Large storage capacity of cold storage

According to the situation in June this year, the old garlic in the cold storage is still not completely sold out, that is to say, the current cold storage technology is sufficient to ensure that last year's garlic is stored until this year. In the face of such a huge amount of garlic on the market this year, garlic buyers will probably not reduce their garlic reserves this year. I am afraid it is the mentality of many garlic merchants to wait for the market to improve and sell in the coming year.

Looking at this situation this year, even if the planting area of garlic has been reduced this year, only the garlic stored in the cold storage is basically enough to ensure the supply of garlic next year without tightening.

2019 garlic planting area reduced

For next year's garlic, the planting area will certainly shrink, which can be seen from the mentality of many garlic farmers, because garlic has really fallen a little miserably this year. According to the preliminary calculation, the net loss of garlic is 1500 yuan per mu. In such a situation, who is willing to continue to plant? As the saying goes, cheap grain hurts farmers, and it has always been the case. Once bitten by a snake for ten years, farmers are afraid of wells and ropes, and farmers have a strong mentality to follow suit. Therefore, the reduction in garlic area this autumn can be said to be a foregone conclusion.

To sum up, the garlic market in the coming year will be better than this year, but there is no guarantee that the market will return to normal next year. In the so-called garlic cycle, the cycle law of "rising every three years and falling every two years" seems to continue, which is also based on the summary of the previous market for many years. But hopefully there will be a big reversal in the garlic market next year, but is it possible?

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