Attention should be paid to the surge of urea production

In the past two years, urea has been very popular in the market, and all enterprises that produce urea have made good profits. So some enterprises enthusiastically want to expand and build new urea production plants. Some use natural gas as raw materials, some use coal, the scale is not small, and of course there is a lot of investment. Here, the author would like to give these enterprises a reminder: urea in China has been saturated, if there is no special advantage, investment in urea should be cautious. The annual consumption of urea in China is about 30 million tons, and even if it is expected to increase to a certain extent in the next 10 years, it will probably not exceed 35 million tons. The total capacity of the existing plant is not far from this volume. If we add in the 800000 tons of Hainan and about 2 million tons of Shanxi under construction, China's production capacity will be surplus in the next 10 years. Let's analyze the current urea market again. It should be noted that although urea sales are smooth and prices are high in the past two years, the production and marketing situation is not that production is insufficient, but that production exceeds sales, with about 1 million tons of urea exported every year. In addition, another important factor contributing to this kind of urea sales situation is that some domestic enterprises, especially some former big oil-headed enterprises, have not joined the battle group. These enterprises are switching to coal as raw materials and will resume production one after another. At that time, China's urea production capacity will be greater, sales pressure will also be greater. Our urea can be exported, but it must be based on the low cost and low transportation cost of urea in our country. At present, China's export of urea does not fully have the above advantages. Even the new production facilities to be built in the future still do not have such advantages. At present, even in Southeast Asia, the landing cost of urea exported from China is not high, and it is still less competitive than that of Russia and the Middle East. The reason why Chinese enterprises can make profits from the export of urea depends on China's export tax rebate policy, but this policy advantage is gradually disappearing. Moreover, China's main export targets, such as Vietnam and other countries, are preparing for the construction of large-scale chemical fertilizer plants, and a number of them will be put into production in 2005. At that time, we will lose these export markets, and it will be more difficult to export our products. Therefore, there is no sufficient reason for us to expect that the export market of urea in China will grow greatly in a few years. If you look at the newly built and individually expanded enterprises themselves, they may have some advantages and can crush some enterprises in the domestic competition so as to win room for their own development. But this kind of competition is quite cruel and is not worth advocating. And from the history of China's nitrogenous fertilizer industry in the last 20 years, this kind of competition is also long-term, and it is likely to make the advantageous enterprises suffer serious losses in the competition. Finally, we must realize that the urea market is now a good year, and all enterprises have profits. But there will be bad years. If at that time, China's urea capacity is seriously excessive, and the export market is not large, it will be a very terrible disaster. Click to get more nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium application techniques click to get more fertilizer application techniques