When the protective price of rice is lowered in 2018, will the market price of new rice exceed that of last year?

Let's first take a look at the protective price of rice in 2017 last year. The lowest purchase prices of early indica rice (third grade, the same below), middle and late indica rice and japonica rice produced in 2017 are 130 yuan, 136 yuan and 150 yuan per 50 kg respectively. The three types of rice have been reduced by 3 yuan, 2 yuan and 5 yuan respectively compared with 2016.

The protective price of rice fell again in 2018, 10 yuan, 10 yuan and 20 yuan lower than in 2017, even more than last year. It can be seen that the strength of the policy has weakened, so it has played a certain role in restraining the rise in rice prices.

It can be said that the market price of rice is not optimistic, but the price of high-quality rice still has a lot of room to rise, but on the whole, the price of rice this year will not fluctuate by a large margin. Personally, I think the price will be basically the same as last year, and the possibility of being higher than the price of rice last year is on the low side.

First of all, the reason for affecting the price is the reduction of the minimum protective price of rice mentioned above, and because the extent of the reduction is so large, it will naturally have a certain inhibitory effect on the price of rice.

Secondly, the reason for the rise in rice prices is the temporary grain storage of rice auctions, the old rice market is abundant, and the price is low, which also affects the rise of rice prices to a certain extent.

In addition, when the rice harvest period entered in July, the harvest time of early indica rice was relatively concentrated, and after August, middle and late rice were listed one after another, and rice was concentrated on the market, so it was difficult for the price of early rice to rise. Although the auction of old early rice is suspended, there is still stock and the price is low, which will naturally affect the price of rice.

In addition, the issue of rice subsidies announced this year, although the specific subsidy measures have not been introduced for the time being, it is certain that this has reduced farmers' losses caused by fluctuations in rice prices to a certain extent. It is not easy for farmers to farm. I believe the country understands this very well.

Finally, judging from the current opening price of rice in some southern rice producing areas, the situation is not very optimistic.

Although judging from the above information, it is unlikely that rice prices will rise this year, but at present there is a shortage of high-quality rice in the market, and the market demand for high-quality rice is considerable, but there is still some time before the rice market in Northeast China is on the market, so there will be another wave of changes in the rice market.

To sum up, it is not very likely that the market price of rice this year will exceed that of last year.

The above comes from promoting agriculture through science.