Forecast of Pig Market Price in the first half of 2010

In terms of upstream supply, the stock of fertile sows will continue to increase, so the number of live pigs is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that in the second half of 2009, the number of sows will increase by 26%, and the number of monthly breeding will increase by 6%. In terms of downstream consumption, with the economic development and the change of consumption concept in the upstream supply, the stock of breeding sows will continue to increase, so the number of live pigs is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that in the second half of 2009, the number of sows will increase by 26%. The number of monthly breeding increases by 6%. Downstream consumption, with the economic development and the change of consumption concept, the demand for pork has dropped to 62%, and there is still a downward trend. Comprehensive forecast, pig prices in the first half of 2010 to explore a new low. According to the random survey of some farms, the demand for reserve sows is strong, and the potential production capacity of breeding sows is too large. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant in the coming year, and prices are expected to hit a new low. First, sow market operation situation reserve sow demand is exuberant. According to the survey, the recent supply of reserve sows in China falls short of demand, and the trading weight has dropped. According to a survey of large domestic breeding enterprises, the trading weight of reserve sows has dropped to 30,000,40kg. According to the current survey of some farms, the reserve sow stock accounts for 37% of the breeding sow stock. The production potential of sows is too large. According to the investigation, in the stock structure of fertile sows, the proportion of 1-litter sows and 3-litter sows is relatively large, each accounting for about 45%. At present, 1-litter sows account for 88.6% of fertile sows. This means that the number of live pigs in China will increase significantly in the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010. Second, market analysis, the adjustment of production structure to increase the demand for reserve sows. The recent adjustment of pig production structure in China is mainly as follows: first, the transformation from professional fattening to self-breeding; for example, in the investigation, the reserve sow stock of a breeding enterprise is 30, but not able to reproduce sows. This part of farmers are transformed from professional fattening households to self-breeding and self-support. Second, some breeding enterprises reduce the stock of low-yield sows and expand the reserve stock of sows. This adjustment increases the demand for reserve sows. The sows can be eliminated by stages, and the proportion of breeding sows decreases. In the survey, the proportion of fertile sows with 5-6 births is 11%, which is much lower than the normal level. The reason is that around the National Day in 2008, farmers began to adjust the production structure and eliminate 5-6-litter fertile sows. According to the survey, the proportion of elimination at that time was between 30% and 40%. Third, the late forecast-pig prices hit a new low in the first half of 2010. The upstream supply of breeding sows continues to increase. On the one hand, it is affected by the small proportion of 5-6 parturient sows, on the other hand, by the high proportion of reserve sows, it is expected to continue to increase. -Pig production is expected to continue to increase. Affected by the large proportion of breeding sows with 1-4 fetus, the supply of live pigs was too large in the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010. According to the stock structure, it is expected that in the second half of 2009, the number of sows will increase by 26%, and the number of sows will increase by 6% per month. two。 The growth space of consumer demand in the lower reaches is gradually shrinking. With the economic development of our country and the change of consumption concept, in the demand for meat, the demand for pork in our country has dropped to 62%, and has a downward trend. At the same time, as pork prices continue to fall, the promoting effect of further price decline on pork consumption gradually weakens. Therefore, the growth space of pork consumption in China in the first half of 2010 is limited compared with the same period last year. (responsible Editor: pig Breeders) Pig raising Network-the analysis idea is very good, and there are several questions to be further confirmed: 1. The stock of sows is increasing, but what about the elimination rate of sows caused by disease? two. The number of fat pigs per sow? three. What about the national economy, that is, consumer strength? -- I think there are still two unknown factors. One is the influence of swine flu. Once there is a mixed feeling between humans and pigs, people will reduce their pork consumption, which will be a fatal blow to pig farming. The second is the impact of the cold winter of 2009 on pig farming. People did not think of the cold winter that had not been seen for many years, and it is still unknown whether there will be an increase in morbidity and death; if there is a large area of disease and death, the number of live pigs will decrease. Maybe the price of raising pigs will be raised. Precious pigs are scarce, and everything is a pig. What we need to consider now is inflation and people's consumption level. With the death of a large number of sows, a large number of piglets are likely to be on the market in the second half of next year. As far as our local market is concerned, the price of hairy pigs will not decline from December to the second quarter of next year.