Legislator Li Tonghao delivered a speech on 'three middle schools and one youth, good country and good people' Hong Junpei Culture and Education Foundation

speech by legislator li tonghao on "three middle schools and one youth: blessing the country and benefiting the people" hung kwan pui cultural and educational foundation

Over the past six months or so, Beijing has been shouting the slogan of "three middle schools and one youth" to Taiwan authorities. The original intention of "three middle schools and one youth" is that Beijing wants to have a comprehensive understanding of Taiwan's "small and medium-sized enterprises","middle and low income","central and southern China" and Taiwan's "youth", and to use market forces to communicate with Taiwan and "share benefits". The recent announcement by Lei Jun and Ma Yun, China's richest tycoons, to invest heavily in sponsoring Taiwanese youth entrepreneurship is a manifestation of the "three in one youth" policy.

on may 9, the hung chun pei cultural foundation invited legislator li tung hao to speak on "three middle schools and one youth: blessing the nation and benefiting the people." li tung hao shared his experience and background as a legislator and teaching researcher for many years to analyze taiwan's current situation. in recent years, taiwan's waste has almost driven him to the end of his rope. everyone is anxious to find a solution, but it seems that there are different opinions, and then he has fallen into endless circles. Let the audience benefit a lot.

The social and economic problems of aging and fewer children have hit all over the world

Taiwan faces a serious problem of fewer children, which has been a social issue often heard in recent years, because its impact is very wide, from education, social welfare, nursing care, child care, to real estate, manufacturing labor force, private domestic consumption, affecting the whole society.

Taiwan's elderly population over the age of 65 is growing rapidly at a rate of about 170,000 per year. This is an unprecedented phenomenon. For Taiwan's medical facilities and elderly care mechanism, the future demand will grow rapidly. The funeral industry and care providers will regard it as a positive message. However, for the entire social welfare system, it will cause the social insurance system to be heavily indebted. For example, Taiwan's government and military civil servants 'retirement funds have long exceeded their expenditures. Bankruptcy is only a matter of time. Civil servants and educators will also face the problem of income falling short of expenditure. At that time, the government will have to borrow money to pay pensions. In this case, the labor insurance fund will also go bankrupt. It is only a matter of time before the government will reduce its benefits or increase its contribution ratio in the future.

In addition to the social welfare system and medical problems, the education industry is also the first wave of industries to be affected. The number of classes in junior high schools and junior high schools will have to be reduced. The Ministry of Education estimates that a total of 16,000 teachers will be reduced in junior high schools. It will be more difficult for vagrant teachers to be admitted to formal teacher vacancies in the future, because more schools cannot fill vacancies and can only hire substitute teachers. The quality of children's teaching will also be affected. The phenomenon of fewer children below junior high school will not stabilize until at least 2025. The premise is that Taiwan's birth rate will no longer decline.

For all universities in Taiwan, the sharp decrease in the number of students may be forced to reduce the number of departments or even close down. The university will close down, and the surrounding restaurants, entertainment consumers and textbook publishers will also be affected. The impact is very wide.

If we consider that most of Taiwan's young people graduate from school and enter the workplace after the age of 23 to generate a substantial labor force, while the elderly retire after the age of 60 on average, the future support pressure of Taiwan's young population will be heavier. In addition, the number of people aged 30 to 40 in Taiwan's age group with stronger consumption power will decrease. For example, Taiwan's real estate buyers have a higher proportion of people aged 30 to 40. In 2013, the government implemented the "Youth Peace of Mind Family Purchase Loan". The 30 ~ 40-year-old group is usually the first to buy a house for the first time, supporting half of the real estate transaction volume. In addition to the housing market, life and entertainment consumption also have certain ability. The reduction of this age group has an impact on Taiwan's private consumption, which cannot be underestimated.

The birth rate is almost the lowest in the world, obstetricians and pediatricians are gradually declining, many parents 'classes and kindergartens in Taiwan are blowing the lights out, and children's products manufacturers are quietly fading out of the market. In the future, the population will continue to decline, and the domestic consumption market will also shrink, affecting the willingness of enterprises to invest, and it will be difficult for the economy to continue to grow rapidly. This is definitely not a good sign for Taiwan's international economic competitiveness.

Population structure is a country's long-term national policy. To change a country's population problem, the rapid method depends on immigration, the long-term method depends on social welfare, and the birth rate is increased. In the early stage of low birth rate, just like the early stage of cancer, people do not feel the existence of the problem. Taiwan's current low proportion of young population has already buried hidden worries as early as the 1990s. After more than ten years, the problem gradually surfaced. Now it is like a patient in the final stage of cancer. For the government, Dealing with this problem is quite thorny. Take Taiwan as an example. If there is a shortage of labor force, we will rely on the introduction of foreign workers. If there is a shortage of students in higher education, we will open up foreign students. If there are problems in the national health insurance and social welfare system, we will repair them slightly. However, these are not fundamental solutions. Taiwan's fertility rate has not improved, so the problem of population structure will not improve. This will be Taiwan's long-term hidden worry.

The gap between North and South should be balanced, and new thinking on the ground should be respected.

Taiwan covers an area of only 36,000 square kilometers, unlike the United States, Italy, or ancient Judaea. Originally, there should not have been a so-called gap between the north and the south. However, due to the fact that government resources were biased towards the north in the early years, there has long been a clear gap between the north and the south in terms of education, employment opportunities, income, consumption standards, and even culture and politics.

Because the income of families in the north is much higher than that in the south, there are significant differences in consumption patterns and consumption scales between the north and the south. The economic gap has caused political confrontation. At the same time, the gap between the north and the south of Taiwan has also caused differences in people's views on cross-strait relations. Such differences have also affected the development of cross-strait relations, resulting in distrust of the development of cross-strait relations among the people in the south.

Regional differences in Taiwan are due to political, economic and historical factors, but social interpretations of regions also affect people's understanding and impression of each region. What is more, human perceptions and attitudes are often the cause or result of deepening regional divides and creating regional disparities in development. "Looking at the world from Taipei" is deeply rooted: a top-down perspective that has formed an invisible but palpable source of sociocultural conflict in Taiwan society. For example, the central region is regarded as an acceptable cultural and entertainment area for Taipei people, the south of Chuoshui River is regarded as a land of undeveloped people, and the eastern region is regarded as Taiwan's last hope for sustainable development. Whether it is the media or the government, many Taipei-based public discussions show that they lack deep understanding and understanding of other parts of Taiwan.

In recent years, a post-modernist perspective on regional differences has emerged in the south, attempting to re-recognize the roles of north and south and construct a different north and south. In short, under the thinking of "living from oneself" and "creating the only one," the south can be seen again; the south can not be vulgar, but the birthplace of the new Taiwanese culture; the south can not be grassroots, but happy; the south can not regain the role of production in the north, and can refuse to enter petrochemical plants and heavy industrial areas. "Transformation" became the new outlet for the south, as opposed to the north, which was frozen in the old culture.

The north-south regional problem in Taiwan is becoming more and more complicated under the influence of the interaction and back-and-forth of the above political and economic factors. The economic weakness of southern Taiwan shows that the economic growth model Taiwan used to rely on has its bottleneck. For decades, Taiwan has relied on low-cost mass production, high-efficiency production, rapid transportation, and export trade to drive its economy. Today, on the one hand, it has failed to meet the challenges of global production movement; on the other hand, it is difficult to improve labor wages and employment quality. Although the old economic model has its indelible importance, but from the perspective of restructuring, it is necessary to try to add a new economic model.

Enterprises move abroad, investment environment is not good, small and medium-sized enterprises guidance government needs to work hard

Taiwan's enterprises investing abroad in China has aroused domestic discussions and disputes in recent years. Although the topics and scope of discussions are numerous and miscellaneous, it is one of the most common and important focus issues whether the enterprises 'outward migration will stay in Taiwan and its impact on China's economic, social and even political development.

When Taiwanese businessmen choose to shift their production lines to the mainland with the production model of "Taiwan receiving orders, mainland production and shipment", it is bound to form an outward shift of industries. According to statistics from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the proportion of overseas production in Taiwan's top four industries has exceeded 50%. The industry shifted most of its production and sales to the mainland, leaving domestic manufacturing unable to keep pace with demand for orders on the one hand, and domestic jobs lost as production moved outward on the other.

The growth of domestic investment has not kept pace with the depletion of capital, resulting in fewer job opportunities and a higher unemployment rate. However, the labor ratio has risen and the employer ratio has fallen. Taiwan is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and the investment environment is not good. This has raised the operating threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises. How the government will guide and support small and medium-sized enterprises will also form a long-term problem for the future economy.

legco member lee tung-ho mini file:

Legislator Li Tonghao holds a bachelor's degree in economics from National Taiwan University and a doctor's degree in economics from Ohio State University in the United States. He has served as a professor in the finance department of the Business School of National Chengchi University, a supervisor of the Taiwan Stock Exchange, a member of the Financial Advisory Group of the Presidential Office, a director of the Banking Research Center of the Business School of National Chengchi University, a representative of the National Assembly with constitutional tasks, the 5th Legislator (not divided into districts nationwide), the director of the finance department of the Business School of National Chengchi University, and a chartered financial analyst (CFA) from the American Institute of Financial Analysts. He is currently the 8th member of the Legislative Council.

▲ Legislative Yuan Member Li Tonghao's Speech "Three Middle Schools and One Youth·Blessing the Country and Benefiting the People" Hong Junpei Cultural and Educational Foundation