Benefit from economic low-base kinetic energy recovery Taiwan stock investment focus on the top 10% of companies

Benefit from economic low-base kinetic energy recovery Taiwan stock investment focus on the top 10% of companies

Fubon recently held a Financial Trends Forum to conduct a 2017 viewpoint analysis of stock market investment in the three places on both sides of the strait, emphasizing that priority can be given to the large decline in 2016, as well as the market that has accumulated less growth since the financial tsunami and the cost-to-earnings ratio is still low.

At present, sluggish global demand, intensified competition in the red supply chain, and a decline in the contribution of foreign trade surplus have led to Taiwan's low economic growth in recent years. In the case of a low base period, Taiwan's economic growth rate has a chance to pick up to 1.5% in 2017.

In recent years, China has maintained an economic growth rate of 6% to 7%, continuously leading the expansion of its economy. China's economic growth rate accounted for 15% of the global economy in 2015, and it is expected to surpass the euro zone in 2016, second only to the United States. As China has become the world's largest exporter and the RMB's international status has risen, it was officially listed as the international reserve currency of the Special drawing Rights (SDR) on October 1, accounting for 10.9% of the dollar, euro, pound and yen, and will accelerate the internationalization of the RMB in the future.

Since China promoted the 12th five-year Plan in 2011, the proportion of domestic demand service industry in China's overall GDP has been equal to that of manufacturing industry, and the proportion has exceeded 50% in 2015. The 13th five-year Plan will continue the adjustment of economic structure. In addition, in recent years, China has started the opening of its capital market, and the inflow of foreign capital has grown exponentially. Since 2005, China has opened QFII. The amount of investment has increased from 46.6 billion yuan to 504.8 billion yuan in 2015. Since 2015, China has opened RQFII. The amount of investment has increased sevenfold from 67 billion yuan to 2015 to 444.3 billion yuan.

According to Fubon, according to data, in the past 10 years, the trend of China's stock market and housing prices has changed from the same direction and decoupling to the recent reverse relationship, mainly due to the great increase in the scale of the stock market and the housing market. With the re-creation of high prices in the mainland leading to social absurd events, it is estimated that the government's housing market will begin to strengthen next year, and the funds invested in the housing market will go out and transfer to the stock market. The reason is that the current PBR of the Shanghai Composite Index is only 1.7 times, which is much lower than the historical average, indicating that the current evaluation of the stock market is seriously undervalued and the attractiveness of stock market investment has increased.

Encouraged by the continued improvement of the international status of the renminbi, the opening of China's capital market, the arrival of government housing funds and the opening of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the PBR of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2017 is expected to be 1.7-2.3 times, with a range of 3000-4200 points. Fubon Investment Gu proposed the investment layout of mainland stocks in 2017, focusing on the three major investment trends of SHOP, including the 13th five-year Plan (Planning), Belt and Road Initiative (OB&OR) and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SZ-HK Connect).

▲ Fubon invests General Manager Xiao Qianxiang to talk about the investment strategy of the Greater China stock market at the press conference of "2017 Fubon Financial Trends Forum", while providing the three major VIP stock selection directions for Taiwan stocks under the corporate focus in 2017.